Advertisement
Published Aug 27, 2024
Spartans Illustrated Staff Picks: Predicting Michigan State's Record
Spartans Illustrated
Staff

It's a new era of Michigan State football led by first year head coach Jonathan Smith and he hopes to restore the Spartan program as a contender in the new look Big Ten.

Michigan State's 2024 roster includes several key transfers and players that opted to return to East Lansing, despite the coaching change. For a full breakdown of the roster, click here.

Some of the notable transfers include quarterback Aidan Chiles, tight end Jack Velling and offensive lineman Tanner Miller, all of whom transferred in from Oregon State. The Spartans also added many defensive transfers including cornerback Ed Woods, linebackers Jordan Turner and Wayne Matthews III and more.

The Spartans return a fair amount of talent, especially on defense. Defensive back Dillon Tatum, linebackers Jordan Hall and Cal Haladay and defensive tackle Maverick Hansen are expected to be major contributors defensively this season. On the offensive side of the ball, running back Nate Carter and wide receiver Montorie Foster Jr. are back to lead those two units, respectively.

With the additions of Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington into the expanded Big Ten, Michigan State's schedule looks much different than it has in years past. The divisions have been scrapped which means that Michigan State will not play Penn State this season for the first time since 2013. The only former Big Ten East division opponent that Michigan State is guaranteed to play each year is in-state rival Michigan.

Here is Michigan State's full 2024 schedule:

Friday, Aug. 30: vs. Florida Atlantic
Saturday, Sept. 7: at Maryland
Saturday, Sept. 14: vs. Prairie View A&M
Saturday, Sept. 21: at Boston College
Saturday, Sept. 28: vs. Ohio State
Friday, Oct. 4: at Oregon
Saturday, Oct. 19: vs. Iowa
Saturday, Oct. 26: at Michigan
Saturday, Nov. 2: vs. Indiana
Saturday, Nov. 16: at Illinois
Friday, Nov. 22: vs. Purdue
Saturday, Nov. 30: vs Rutgers

Staff members of Spartans Illustrated have submitted their record predictions for Michigan State's 2024 campaign in year one of the Smith era.

Advertisement

Ryan O'Bleness: 7-5

A lot can happen in year one of a rebuild under a brand-new coaching staff, and to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if this team won as few as four games or as many as eight games. Looking at the schedule, though, at least on paper, I only see three games I would say are very likely losses as things stand right now (Ohio State, Oregon and Michigan). I think Iowa will also be tough, but the Spartans have the benefit of playing that one in East Lansing. The game at Maryland is a big toss-up in my opinion, but could be tough to win in College Park. Boston College, which is also in its first year of a new coaching regime should be a victory for MSU, but going to Chestnut Hill could have its challenges and Bill O'Brien will have his team prepared.

The minimum goal for Jonathan Smith and his team should be making a bowl game. For most fans, anything above six wins is going to be considered a cherry on top. All of this said, I feel fairly optimistic about this staff and team and I see seven regular-season wins and a bowl game appearance happening. There are going to be growing pains and mistakes with a young Aidan Chiles at quarterback, but his talent is undeniable and he gives MSU the kind of dynamic quarterback it hasn't seen in several years. The schemes should be much improved both offensively and defensively compared to the past regime and the coaches will put their guys in position to succeed more often than not. The depth on the offensive line and defensive lines are probably my biggest question marks, but every other positional group looks like it has been bolstered. The defensive backs room has been overhauled with a lot of talent from the transfer portal, and if all comes together, MSU should be much improved in pass coverage compared to the past few years.

Overall, I expect to see a much more competent team on the field, a confident staff that has a track record of development and a hungry program looking to prove doubters wrong. Again, there will be a lot of bumps in the road in the first year of a rebuild, and I don't expect this squad to compete for a Big Ten championship or playoff spot, but this is the team that will set the tone and the foundation for the Jonathan Smith era. The Spartans will be competitive.

David Harns: 7-5

Predicting the season record of a team with a new head coach/staff and a revamped team with brand new players all over the place seems like a fool's errand. So let's get to it.

MSU wins it's home opener vs. Florida Atlantic but then loses at Maryland in week 2. After a Sept. 14 home victory over Prairie View A&M, the Spartans follow it up with a win on the road at Boston College.

The Spartans are surprisingly competitive with Ohio State at home but lose by two touchdowns at Oregon under the Friday night lights on October 4.

After a bye week, the Spartans pull off an impressive win in Spartan Stadium vs. Iowa. A road loss at Michigan the following week is followed by a home win vs. Indiana, a road loss at Illinois, and home wins over Purdue and Rutgers in front of ecstatic Spartan Stadium crowds.

Add it all up and you get Michigan State finishing year one under Smith at 7-5 with an invite to a bowl game.

Brendan Moore: 6-6

It's becoming more difficult to predict records than ever before with the transfer portal. Add onto the fact that Michigan State has an almost entirely new coaching staff led by Jonathan Smith and this season feels pretty unpredictable for the Spartans. While I have no doubts in Smith's ability to rebuild a program and get the most out of his players, is it all going to work out in year one? Do the Spartans have enough talent to be successful in the deepest version of the Big Ten we've ever seen?

Michigan State has two big road games in the first four weeks of the season -- at Maryland and at Boston College. A win in either of those games, or better yet, both of those games would be huge for Michigan State going into the Ohio State game.

While it is unfair to expect a win against the Buckeyes, Oregon, Michigan or Iowa, one upset victory is not out of question. How I see it, the key in that stretch of four games is not how many games the Spartans win -- it's how healthy the team is coming out of those four games. If Michigan State is healthy and carries some momentum into the final four games, there is a good chance that this team can end the season on a positive note.

I think Michigan State will win three of its first four games, lose the middle four games of the season and end by winning three of its last four games to reach bowl eligibility. Getting to a bowl game would mark a successful first year under Smith.

Overall, I do think this team will improve as the season progresses and there will be several flashes of brilliance from Aidan Chiles, Nick Marsh and other young players which will provide hope for the next few seasons.

Austen Flores: 6-6

I don’t think the record will reflect the overall progression that Jonathan Smith and company will make this season. The Spartans start their campaign with winnable games that should get players acclimated with the new systems, which will be needed. But a midseason stretch facing Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa and Michigan may be daunting.

I’m sure the goals set for the season are reasonable for a program that’s missed out on a bowl game the last two years. The Spartans have done a good job in the offseason putting pieces together for future success, but it also took Smith a few years to rebuild a sinking ship at Oregon State to being a contender in the conference. We’ll just have to be patient.

Lucca Mazzie: 7-5

The Michigan State Spartans had a great offseason, and are looking to improve on last years’ 4-8 record. With improvement or development at every position on the football field, it makes Michigan State look like they have a real chance to prove people wrong this season. With that being said, the Spartans have three categories of games this season. Easy wins, 50-50 games, and likely losses.

The easy wins should be against Florida Atlantic, Prairie View A&M, Indiana, Purdue, Boston College and Illinois. The 50-50 games will be against Maryland and Rutgers, and the likely losses will be versus Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, and Oregon. In my opinion, Michigan State will finish 7-5, with losses to Maryland, Rutgers, Michigan, Ohio State, and Oregon.

Kevin Knight: 7-5

First year at the helm in East Lansing for Jonathan Smith? A majorly revamped roster with lots of question marks? A program that has missed bowl eligibility for two-straight seasons and had a losing record in three of the past four? A new Big Ten with great tumult in the sport's structure and college athletics as a whole? Let's make some predictions for people on Twitter to poke fun at in November!

Wins over FAU and Prairie View A&M seem a given with a win over BC likely as well. The Spartans should also have the advantage over teams like IU and Purdue.

Some surprise wins like at UMD and at home over Iowa should give fans something to look forward to. However, losses at Illinois and to a tough RU squad may have some frustrated. Meanwhile, avoiding complete blowout losses at Oregon, at Michigan, and to OSU will go a long way in setting the tone that things are trending back toward good in East Lansing.

Paul Fanson: 7-5

I am a numbers guy and the numbers say the Michigan State is only going to win five games this year. If you look at the schedule, I see two likely wins, four likely losses, and six toss-ups, so five wins basically checks out.

But I am also a glass-half-full type of guy, and especially after reading David's behind-the-scenes article, I am ready to say that the Spartans over-achieve by two games. In my observation, first-year coaches often get a bit of a bump from the fresh approach that their staff brings to the table.

Smith has a proven track record at Oregon State of wringing more wins than expected from rosters less talented than the one that he inherited. Furthermore, I expect the Spartan offense to be a lot better than most experts expect, as long of the offensive line holds up (which is a big "if").

I see Michigan State beating FAU and Prairie View to open the season and then stealing a win over a tired Boston College squad. The middle of the schedule could get rough, but I see the Spartans protecting the home field with wins over Iowa, Indiana, Purdue, and Rutgers.

Jacob Cotsonika: 6-6

The first thing that comes to mind when I think of the season outlook is that things cannot really be worse than last year. Something that was easy to forget with all the off-field issues is that MSU very easily could have won six games last year as well. A team not in a "lame duck" position probably finds a way to hold leads against Iowa and Rutgers.

Everything points to improvement this year. The Jonathan Smith regime is filled with coaches known for doing more with less. The Spartans have a quarterback in Aidan Chiles that they believe is the present and future face of the program. Returning the leading rusher and receiver on top of adding Tanner Miller to the offensive line and Jack Velling at tight end points to an offense that will certainly score.

Defense might be more of a question mark, in my opinion. Joe Rossi, who put together three top-10 defenses at Minnesota of all places, was as good of a hire as Spartan fans could have asked for. The Spartans return the team's top four leading tacklers from last season, with several key additions, such as Jordan Turner and Wayne Matthews III, to the LB room. Questions can arise on the line and the secondary, though. Smith and Co. were quickly tasked with replacing three defensive line starters that transferred to other power conference programs, and the struggles in the secondary were well-documented during the Mel Tucker era. This will require someone to step up, whether it is a returning player like Maverick Hansen, Malik Spencer or Dillon Tatum. It could also be a portal addition, such as Quindarius Dunnigan or Ed Woods.

All in all, year one for Jonathan Smith will not be "the year." I would point to three games that have pretty set results. Prairie View A&M (FCS) is the only automatic win for the Spartans on paper. They are not winning at Oregon or at home against Ohio State. I leaned towards throwing the game at Michigan in that category, but anything can happen in that rivalry. This leaves nine games overall to predict and five wins needed to reach bowl eligibility. The key will be getting a win against FAU to start and either at Maryland or at Boston College. That puts the team in a position where just three wins would be needed with five truly winnable games left on the schedule, not including Michigan. I think there is enough talent and more than enough coaching ability to get the Spartans back to a bowl game for the first time since 2021.

Kyle Luce: 6-6

The 2024 version of MSU football is — as many programs in the portal era know — somewhat of an unknown entity. But, some proven players combined with intriguing young talent make for a product that, if nothing else, will be exciting.

Some combinations I believe can thrust this team to seven or eight wins — Aidan Chiles getting comfortable early on. In college football a dynamic quarterback can win you games. Secondly, the Linebacker room is deep, experienced, and talented. Look for Jordan Hall to show why he’s being touted as a “one of a kind leader” so early in his career. And lastly, Joe Rossi reinventing the defensive identity. He’s a proven big time coordinator in the Big Ten, familiar with the opponent, and nationally recognized as one of the top defensive minds in college football.

With a mid-season stretch of matching up against four consecutive ranked teams, three being top 10, a year one (of the Smith era) bowl game feels like a win to me, and a pretty realistic landing spot for this team.

Throw in a marquee win or two, and mere intrigue may evolve to playoff aspirations next year.

Verbosedutch: 6-6

I have been waffling between 5-7 and 6-6 for much of the offseason. I’m going the optimistic route with a 6-win season and the first bowl berth since the 2021 Peach Bowl. For the better, the roster has been significantly changed following an embarrassing 2023 season. That said, this is essentially a full reboot and the program is in the early stages of construction under Jonathan Smith.

The schedule is a bit of a rollercoaster -- the first four and last four games present plenty of opportunities for success. And then there’s the middle four games -- four top 25 teams, including maybe the two best teams in the country. The Spartans win total and bowl aspirations will likely hinge on how healthy the team can remain following a meat-grinding middle of the season.

It may be too tall a task for young and unproven players -- particularly on the offensive and defensive lines -- to be relied on in backend of the schedule to get to bowl eligibility. I’m feeling positive though about a team under proven coaching with a smattering of experienced and exciting talent.

Jeremy Dewar: 6-6

Momentum is key in a football season, and the chunk of games in the middle of the season make it hard to see MSU getting on a run where it outperforms its talent. Playing preseason No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon, No. 25 Iowa and No. 9 Michigan in four straight games is a monumental task. The starting lineup looks better to me, with transfers like Chiles, Velling, Newman, Miller, Matthews and Dunnigan in, but the depth will be tested especially with a schedule this tough.

I am marking FAU, Prairie View A&M, Illinois, Purdue as sure wins. Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers as toss ups and Iowa as the potential upset that could get this team to maybe seven wins. Six wins may not set the world on fire, but not getting their doors blown off in losses is enough progress for me this season, after watching junior varsity performances against teams with a modicum of a pulse last season. Get to a bowl game, build and retain momentum recruiting the Midwest, pick off needs in the portal and head into 2025 with Chiles ready to go for 8-plus wins in year two under Coach Jonathan Smith.

Here are two must-reads before the season kicks off:

1. Nine months in: How Jonathan Smith is building Michigan State Football - an exclusive look behind the scenes at how Jonathan Smith has spent his last nine months rebuilding Spartan football.

2. Spartan Cheat Sheet: What you need to know before the season kicks off - a quick glance at everything you need to know about the new Spartan football team.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

Join the discussion on this article in our premium forums by clicking here.

You can also follow us on Twitter, Facebook, Threads, TikTok, and Instagram.

For video content, including our Red Cedar Radar podcast, find us on YouTube and consider subscribing.

Advertisement