Michigan State returns from a bye week to square off with Iowa at Spartan Stadium on Saturday night.

The Spartans enter their homecoming game as the underdog by about a touchdown. Our Spartans Illustrated team breaks down the matchup and gives predictions for this week's action.

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3-2-1 Preview vs. Iowa: 3 things we want to see, 2 key stats, 1 best bet

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Jonathan Smith previews Iowa after a much-needed bye week for Michigan State

Start time announced: Michigan State at No. 24 Michigan

This game will tell us a lot about Jonathan Smith and his coaching staff. Given a bye week to prepare for Iowa, what are we going to see? Will we see progression from the last time Michigan State played a team not ranked in the top-five? Is the game plan sound? And then after that, we'll learn a lot about quarterback Aidan Chiles as he will be the key to this game for the Spartans. I can make a case for this one going either way, but I think that, in the end, the homecoming crowd and the hype and the return home will all play in MSU's favor.

It will be much better entering rivalry week 4-3 instead of 3-4 and I think Michigan State gets it done with a defensive stop in the red zone in the final few minutes. As the offense runs out the clock, a jacked Spartan Stadium crowd will celebrate the best win in Smith's young MSU career.

I don't have much reason to predict a Michigan State victory over a good Iowa team, but let's call it a gut feeling. MSU is coming into the game well-rested and with extra prep time following a bye week, and with a homecoming crowd in a night-game environment in Spartan Stadium, this feels like classic upset territory — especially with the Hawkeyes riding high after big win over Washington.

Make no mistake about it, Iowa has an elite run game and running back Kaleb Johnson is a special talent, and I have serious doubts about Michigan State's ability on offense to run the ball against a stout Iowa defensive front. However, the MSU run defense — outside of the Oregon game — has been solid this year and I am confident that defensive coordinator/linebackers coach Joe Rossi was able to fix those issues he saw against an elite team in the Ducks.

I still fully expect Johnson to have a good game, but if the Spartans can limit him to the best of their ability, hit some big plays in the passing game offensively, get positive gains on the ground and limit the giveaways to one or less (I know this is asking a lot of a turnover-prone team), I see a path to victory here for MSU.

The Hawkeyes scored too many points last week on offense and the angry football gods need penance. Iowa’s offense provides the proper sacrifices by not scoring a single point in a replay of the two-safety Penn State-Iowa game, but with the Spartans scoring two field goals to Iowa’s two safeties.

I have a pretty strict, self-imposed rule that I always let my computer make my official picks for each Michigan State game. This week, my computer is not very optimistic about the Spartans' chances against the Hawkeyes. In fact, it foresees a double-digit loss.

But just for this week, I am going to go out on a limb and make my own pick. The Spartans badly needed a break last week and the bye week could not have come at a better time. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes might be rolling into town feeling a bit fat-and-sassy, as Tom Izzo likes to say.

I think MSU comes in sharp and focused and harnesses the best, cleanest 60 minutes of football that we have seen so far this year. The game plays out as a back-and-forth affair and is tied in the final five minutes. The Spartans then proceed to drive the ball into Iowa territory, milking the clock until kicker Jonathan Kim nails a game-winning field goal as time expires.

Michigan State will struggle to move the ball against Iowa's defense, and the turnover woes continue. Iowa gets most of its points off of those turnovers and wins the game.

Michigan State will have a great game plan going into this game. The Spartans will find success moving the football on offense on their first few drives. However, Michigan State settling for field goals will cost the Spartans this game.

Too many missed opportunities, especially in the second half, and the usual turnover or two will hurt the Spartans against a sound, disciplined defense like Iowa. Also, the Hawkeyes have one of the best running backs in the Big Ten at their disposal on offense in Kaleb Johnson. Iowa wins in a low-scoring battle that will come down to who will make less mistakes.

The Spartans will come in rested and focused after a week off. Tight end Jack Velling will get his first touchdown of the year. The offense will not turn it over this week. The Spartan defense will keep its streak alive by getting a takeaway for the fourth week in a row.

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