Playing the first game after a bye week is like waking up from a nap. It is a little tough to predict how the body will respond.

If a nap comes at just the right time and lasts for just the right length of time, it can be very refreshing and rejuvenating. But sometimes waking up for a nap can be rough. It can cause a disorienting, groggy feeling like suddenly two plus two equals five and that down is the new up.

Based on the way the three weeks prior to the bye week went, last week's break at the midpoint of the season came at exactly the right time for the Michigan State Spartans. Facing one top-five team is challenging enough. Facing two top-five teams (Ohio State and Oregon) on consecutive weekends — including a matchup that required almost 5,000 miles of travel round trip to Eugene and back to East Lansing — is something else entirely.

But how will the rested Spartans look on the field come Saturday night? It is hard to predict what we are going to get. It is the classic "rest versus rust," million-dollar question.

I prefer to be optimistic and to believe that the Spartans will come out sharp and efficient. I think they will find a way to ride the hometown, night-game atmosphere to an upset win versus Iowa in Spartan Stadium during homecoming. If this were to happen, Spartans fans can start daydreaming about bowl game destinations, even if it might be just 90 miles down I-96.

But even if the Spartans play well, Iowa is still a good team and maybe a very good team. At this point in the Jonathan Smith rebuild, even a very good effort from Michigan State at home might not be good enough to reverse the current three-game losing streak.

Even though the Spartans are the underdogs, a loss to Iowa would still be a letdown. All the momentum gained in the first three weeks of the season would be knocked down like a house of cards. Spartan fans have shown a lot of patience during the current losing streak, but there are a few who have been climbing up the walls.

At the risk of sounding like a paranoid android, another loss could case some fans to feel like the program in back in limbo. Even less patient fans might start to get the knives out for the coaching staff.

Perhaps this view is a little too pessimistic. I might be wrong about that. But either way, Saturday night is yet another big game for the young Jonathan Smith era. The fate of the season may hang in the balance, and the outcome is hard to predict.

That all said, let's try to make a prediction.

For context, the Michigan State/Iowa series is one of the more balanced and competitive ones involving the core group of "original" Big Ten schools. The Hawkeyes lead the overall series 25-22-2, but it has been a back-and-forth affair.

The Spartans had the early advantage in the series, posting a record of 10-5-1 between 1953 and 1978. Iowa then turned the tables by winning 11 of the next 16 contests between 1979 and 1996. Since 1999, the Hawkeyes hold a slim 9-8 lead, including the two most recent games, both of which were played in Iowa City.

Michigan State went just 1-6 against the spread (ATS) versus Iowa in the first decade of this century, but since 2010 the record ATS is an even 4-4. There have been only three upsets in the series since 2001. The Spartans (+7) upset the Hawkeyes in East Lansing in 2003, but Iowa was able to stun the Spartans as a three-point home dog in 2007 and as a nine-point underdog in Spartan Stadium in 2012.

As a rule, this series has slightly favored both the home team and the favored team over the past 25 years. But this year, those two factors are in opposition. The line for Saturday night's game in Spartan Stadium opened with Michigan State as a 5.5-point underdog.

The historical odds give Michigan State a 35% shot at pulling the upset. The last time the Spartans faced the Hawkeyes in Spartan Stadium as an underdog, Michigan State won (in 2003). That's the good news.

The bad news is that my computer is way less confident in Michigan State, or more precisely, my computer has way more confidence in Iowa. While the pollsters do not current have Iowa in the top-25, the Hawkeyes currently sit at No. 8 in my computer's power poll.

Based on this ranking, my computer's official prediction is a final score of Iowa 29, Michigan State 15.

Whatever, computer.

I make it my general policy to always go with the prediction of my machine. Would it be bad luck to break that policy? At the risk of angering the karma police, I am going to go for it. I say Michigan State finds a way to pull this one out. Hopefully this is more than just a nice dream.

My personal prediction: Michigan State 24, Iowa 21.

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Eight, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials.

Note that all rankings referenced below are my computer system's rankings and not any of the national polls.