Good news: Michigan State welcomes in a one-dimensional offensive team in Iowa to Spartan Stadium this weekend.
Bad news: That one dimension includes perhaps the best running game in the Big Ten.
Also good news: We are 5-0 in best bets in this column so far this season.
Also bad news: That’s because the last two unders hit thanks to MSU’s offense dragging along.
More good news: I can see a path to victory in MSU's homecoming game versus the Hawkeyes on Saturday night.
Let's break down the 3-2-1 preview.
3 Things We Want To See
Tackling
Yes, tackling. One of the main objectives in the game of football. IT seems simple, doesn’t it? Well, tell that to Michigan State the last two games, as the Spartans combined for 35 missed tackles against both Ohio State and Oregon.
Never mind that means MSU leads the Big Ten in missed tackles this season with 68, but with Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson coming to town, it must be cleaner. Johnson has been dazzling this year with 43 missed tackles forced, per Pro Football Focus, good for fifth-best in the nation.
If you're Michigan State, you can’t have the starting linebackers combine for six missed tackles like they did against Oregon (never mind the plays they got completely washed out of). You can’t have the starting safeties continue their trend of eight combined missed tackles over the last two games.
You can’t let the speedy Johnson turn a four-yard run into a 40-plus-yard touchdown. Slowing him down requires a lot of attention to detail and execution, and it starts with the basic art of tackling.
Now there is reason to believe the run defense will look a tad better than what we saw against Oregon. A.) Jordan Hall could potentially be back at linebacker, adding more athleticism to that position and B.) MSU had to respect Oregon’s passing game, leading to plenty of six-man boxes in that first half, whereas against Iowa, you can have 11-man boxes (kidding, kind of).
Planned Runs For Aidan Chiles
There haven’t been too many actual run plays designed for quarterback Aidan Chiles this season, likely in order to preserve his health throughout the season. Yes, we’ve seen him on some electric runs here and there through scrambles, but as a whole, there have only been nine run plays called for him this season…with four of them coming against Oregon.
At this point of the season, we know MSU’s run game is what it is – not great. And you can’t even really chalk this up to facing great Oregon and Ohio State teams. This has been an issue since the Florida Atlantic game.
Last week, MSU dabbled, mostly in the second half, with Chiles on designed runs to the tune of 7.7 yards per carry. That’s a lofty number to expect, but it’s necessary to deploy these runs here and there to give you a pure 11 vs. 11 run attack and some semblance of a reliable run game.
WE ARE BEGGING YOU TO PLEASE KEEP THE BALL
The first two things we want to see are based in the lens of reality. We’ve seen MSU be a decent-to-good tackling team throughout the first four games of the season. We’ve seen reason to believe Chiles can run well on designed runs and that more of those plays could be getting drawn up as the season progresses.
This onem though, if you’d excuse me, goes out of the lens of reality it seems like as MSU is sitting on 14 turnovers through six games. But if the Spartans ever wanted to just flip that switch and actually limit the turnovers to just one at most, this would be a great time for it.
Iowa is as good as any at punishing other teams that turn it over – just ask Washington last week, which saw both turnovers get turned into points for the Hawkeyes.
2 Key Stats
(Insert Kaleb Johnson stat here)
I don’t want to overexaggerate or besmirch the name of a MSU legend…but when I watch Kaleb Johnson I truly feel like I’m watching Kenneth Walker III. When he has no hole to run through, he finds one. When he is surrounded by three tacklers, he’s seen 10 yards downfield about a second later. He’s patient, he’s shifty, he’s fast in the open field.
OH YEAH, THAT’S RIGHT, the stats. He has 5.6 yards per carry after contact (second best in the nation behind Boise State phenom Ashton Jeanty). He already has 937 rushing yards (second in the nation and roughly 200 more than MSU has as a whole). He has 20 runs of 15-plus yards, which is best in the nation.
This isn’t a “Oh, hey, he’s an above average running back” situation. This guy is a dog. Mixed with a cheetah. Mixed with a mouse the way he can collapse his rib cage and squeeze through tight spaces.
One
That’s how many touchdown passes against Power Four teams Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara has in his career not aided by the Connor Stallions Era at Michigan. And it happened last week to Johnson.
This is somewhat cherry picked, as J.J. McCarthy was anointed the starter for Michigan in 2022 after the Wolverines' non-conference slate and last year’s ACL injury knocked him out of Big Ten play. But still, even through four games against Power Four teams this season, he has one touchdown pass. As a whole, he has two games with over 110 passing yards this season.
When we are acting like Iowa is one dimensional on offense, it’s for this very reason.
1 Best Bet
MSU +5.5, over/under 40.5
I’ve been saying MSU is going to win this game from the offseason. While my confidence has gone through violent mood swings – from feeling great after Iowa fell to Iowa State to feeling NOT great after Oregon chewed up MSU’s run defense – I still maintain MSU will win this game off the bye week.
Coming off a bye week. Playing in front of a sold out Spartan Stadium on homecoming. Not going up against a minor league NFL roster for the first time in three games. Give me the points.
Pick: MSU +5.5
Record: 5-0
