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Published Oct 20, 2023
Game Preview: No. 2 Michigan versus Michigan State
Ryan O'Bleness  •  Spartans Illustrated
Managing Editor
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@ryanobleness

Heated in-state rivals Michigan (7-0, 5-0 in Big Ten play) and Michigan State (2-4, 0-3 in Big Ten play) will meet under the lights in East Lansing on Saturday, with the Paul Bunyan Trophy on the line.

For the first time in series history, Michigan State will host Michigan in a prime-time matchup at Spartan Stadium. The game is set to kick off at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday and will broadcast on NBC. Last year's contest in Ann Arbor was also a night game, as was the 2017 matchup at Michigan Stadium.

Michigan enters this weekend's game with an undefeated record and currently ranks as the No. 2 team in the country. Meanwhile, Michigan State has lost four games in a row after blowing an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter versus Rutgers this past Saturday. The Spartans are yet to win a Big Ten game in 2023.

For Saturday's contest versus Michigan, Michigan State is asking fans to wear green for the game.

Also, interesting news came out about the Wolverines this week as the NCAA is investigating Michigan football for alleged rule violations related to sign stealing. Michigan State was made aware of it.

According to ESPN, the person of interest in this situation is Conor Stalions, who currently works as an analyst for the Michigan football program and is a retired captain in the United States Marine Corps. He has now been suspended with pay until the investigation is complete.

As it to pertains to on the field, though, while records and the way things look on paper can generally be thrown out in this rivalry, the 2023 matchup with Michigan is going to be an incredibly difficult challenge for a reeling Michigan State team.

The Wolverines rank first in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) in points per game allowed (6.67), second in the country in total defense (233.1 yards allowed per game) second in passing defense (142.1 passing yards allowed per game) and 10th in rushing defense (91 yards allowed per game). Offensively, Michigan ranks in the top-five of the Big Ten in yards per game (413.7), rushing yards per game (182), passing yards per game (231.7) and points per game (39.4, which also ranks 10th in the nation).

With that said, let's examine the game more closely in this week's preview.

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2023 statistics review: 

Michigan State:

-Record: 2-4 (0-3 in Big Ten)
-Offense (per game averages): 349.37 total yards, 231.67 passing yards, 117.7 rushing yards
-Defense (per game averages): 333.97 total yards allowed, 219.17 passing yards allowed, 114.8 rushing yards allowed
-Third-down offense: 35.9%
-Third-down defense: 24.36%
-Cumulative Points Scored: 132 (22.0 per game)
-Cumulative Points Allowed: 146 (24.33 per per game)

Michigan:

-Record: 7-0 (4-0 in Big Ten)
-Offense (per game averages): 413.71 total yards, 231.71 passing yards, 182 rushing yards
-Defense (per game averages): 233.14 total yards allowed, 142.14 passing yards allowed, 91 rushing yards allowed
-Third-down offense: 55.41%
-Third-down defense: 31.46%
-Cumulative Points Scored: 276 (39.43 per game)
-Cumulative Points Allowed: 47 (6.71 per game)

Current SP+ rankings:

-Michigan State: No. 55
-Michigan: No. 1

Series history/all-time records

-All-time head-to-head record: Michigan 72-38-5
-Record since 1950: Michigan leads 39-32-2
-Current streak: Michigan has a one-game winning streak after a victory in 2022
-Last Michigan State win: Oct. 30, 2021 (37-33)
-Last Michigan win: Oct. 29, 2022 (29-7)
-Michigan State all-time record: 728-483-44 (.598)
-Michigan all-time record: 996-353--36 (.732)

Uniform watch:

Michigan State:

The long awaited debut of the all-black "Shadow" uniform will happen on Saturday. This weekend's look features a black helmet with a green Spartan head, black jersey and black pants with a green Greek key pattern.

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For more details on Michigan State's "Shadow" uniform, please read this article from Spartans Illustrated guest contributor "@msu_uniforms."

A closer look at this weekend's gear can be viewed in the image below.

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Michigan:

The uniform combination for Michigan on Saturday is currently unknown, but expect white jerseys, blue pants and of course the "winged" helmet.

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Previous game results:

Rutgers 27, Michigan State 24

Michigan State received the ball first in what was redshirt freshman quarterback Katin Houser's first career start.

Houser led a 14-play, 75-yard scoring drive that culminated in a 13-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Montorie Foster Jr., giving the Spartans a 7-0 edge in the first quarter.

Rutgers also found the scoreboard on its first drive, as kicker Jai Patel hit a 47-yard field goal to make the score 7-3 in MSU's advantage in the late first quarter.

In the early second quarter, Patel hit another field goal, making the score 7-6. Later in the quarter, following turnovers from both teams, Michigan State found the end zone again. MSU long snapper Drew Wilson recovered a muffed punt from Rutgers' Rashad Rochelle and set the Spartans up at RU's 12-yard line. One play later, Houser scored a 12-yard rushing touchdown on a quarterback draw.

Following another takeaway from the Michigan State defense, kicker Jonathan Kim tacked on a 37-yard field goal before halftime, and the Spartans led the Scarlet Knights 17-6 at the break.

In the third quarter, Michigan State found pay-dirt once again. Houser connected with wide receiver Tre Mosley on a four-yard touchdown play. The Spartans took a commanding 24-6 lead with 3:41 remaining in the quarter.

However, in the fourth quarter, things took a wild turn for Michigan State. At the beginning of the quarter, punter Michael O'Shaughnessy mishandled the snap and the ball found its way into the end zone, where it was recovered by RU running back Aaron Young. This made the score 24-13.

Following a three-and-out, Michigan State punted. Rutgers then scored again when quarterback Gavin Wimsatt found wide receiver Isaiah Washington in the end zone from four yards out. The two-point conversion was good, and all of a sudden, the Spartans' lead was cut to three points, 24-21, with 8:30 remaining.

Another special teams error — and odd decision by the MSU coaching staff to line up in an on-side kick formation — allowed Rutgers to recover a pooch kick when returner Tyrell Henry opted not to fair catch the ball. One play later, Rutgers scored again on a 21-yard touchdown run by running back Kyle Monangai. Rutgers took a 27-24 lead after the missed extra point.

Michigan State's offense quickly went three-and-out, and the Spartans punted the ball back to Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights ran off the final seven-plus minutes of the game clock and took home a 27-24 victory.

For the full game recap, click here.

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Michigan 52, Indiana 7

Well, Indiana did make this one interesting early. Late in the first quarter IU wide receiver Donaven McCulley (who formerly played quarterback) threw a 44-yard touchdown pass to running back Jaylin Lucas on a trick play to give the Hoosiers a 7-0 advantage after the extra point.

Indiana managed to keep Michigan off of the scoreboard in the first quarter, but it was all Wolverines after that. UM scored three touchdowns in the second quarter as running back Blake Corum found the end zone twice and quarterback J.J. McCarthy found wide receiver Roman Wilson on a touchdown pass. The Wolverines led 21-7 at halftime.

UM tacked on 17 more points in the third quarter as McCarthy connected with tight end Colston Loveland for a 54-yard touchdown and wide receiver Semaj Morgan for a seven-yard score. Kicker James Turner also nailed a 28-yard field goal. After three quarters of play, Michigan led 38-7.

Michigan scored twice more in the fourth quarter for good measure. Running back Donovan Edwards rushed one into the end zone, and backup quarterback Jack Tuttle threw a touchdown pass to wide receiver Karmello English.

Michigan ultimately earned a dominating 52-7 victory. Indiana turned the ball over four times, while UM had zero giveaways.

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Key matchups:

-Battle of the trenches/run games: I had this same point in last week for the Rutgers preview as well, but it is even more important this week. Offensive lineman and team leader J.D. Duplain said earlier this week that this game will be won and lost at the line of scrimmage, which is no surprise given the physical nature of this rivalry. Michigan enters the game with a top-10 ranked rush defense (91.0 yards allowed per game) in the country and has the second-ranked total defense (233.1 yards per game) in the nation. The Wolverines also rank first in the FBS in scoring defense (6.71 points allowed per game). Meanwhile, Michigan State ranks toward the bottom of the country in rushing offense, 108th, at 117.7 yards per game. Running back Nate Carter has had a strong season, ranking fourth in the Big Ten at 88.2 yards per game. However, he needs help from fellow running backs Jalen Berger (who looked solid against Rutgers last week) and Jaren Mangham, who is yet to play this season, but hinted toward a possible return on social media this week. Of course, on the other side off the ball, Michigan has a rushing attack that ranks in the top-four in the Big Ten and top-40 of the country (182.0 yards per game), led by Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, while quarterback J.J. McCarthy is a threat to run as well. Michigan State does have a pretty strong run defense, ranking 32nd nationally and sixth nationally (114.8 yards allowed per game), but will need to do its best to neutralize the Wolverines' ground game.

-Michigan's third-down/fourth-down offense versus Michigan's State's third-down/fourth-down defense: If Spartan fans are looking for at least one area where the Spartans are equal to or perhaps could even have an advantage, look no further than third-down/fourth-down defense. According to Cfb-graphs.com, Michigan State's defense ranks second in the country in third-down/fourth-down defense success (27.8% allowed), while Michigan's offense ranks second in third-down/fourth-down (57.1%). Michigan State has been strong defensively all year, and currently allows teams to convert just 24.36% of the time (third-best in the FBS). Meanwhile, Michigan's offense ranks fourth in the country in third-down efficiency, converting at a clip of 55.41%. Fourth down is a bit of a different story as MSU has allowed teams to convert six times on nine tries (66.7%), while UM's offense has been strong here, converting seven out of 10 times (70%). In order to win this game, the Spartans have to get off of the field in these situations and get the ball back to their offense.

-Which team can can put together four quarters of good football?: The obvious answer here is likely Michigan as the deeper, more balanced team that looks much better on paper. Michigan State is yet to play a complete game against a Power Five opponent. The Spartans played well for three quarters against Rutgers, but let an 18-point fourth-quarter lead slip away. MSU had plenty of chances to beat Iowa a couple weeks ago as well, until late-game blunders and inexcusable penalties put an end to those hopes. Against Maryland on Sept. 23, the Spartans had more total yards, more first downs and controlled time of possession, but due to turnovers, that game resulted in a 22-point loss for MSU (and yes, short fields for Maryland likely contributed to less total yards for the Terps). Interim head coach Harlon Barnett has been adamant that Michigan State is close to turning things around. What does this team look like when it actually can play mistake-free football, avoids bad turnovers and penalties, executes in all facets and makes smart play calls? That remains to be seen. On the other side, Michigan really hasn't been tested yet. The Wolverines are used to pulling their starters out before the game is over. If Michigan State is (somehow) able to keep the game close going into the fourth quarter, how will Michigan respond to adversity? In a raucous night-game atmosphere at Spartan Stadium, if it comes down to do it, will Michigan step up or fold under the pressure? To be honest, it's unlikely it even gets to that point for the Wolverines. But if it does, it will be interesting to watch.

Game info: 

-Date/Kickoff Time: Saturday, Oct. 21, 7:33 p.m. Eastern Time
-TV Channel: NBC
-TV Announcers: Noah Eagle (play-by-play), Todd Blackledge (analyst), Kathryn Tappen (analyst)
-Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
-Weather Expectations: Rain showers, with temperature around 47 degrees at kickoff, and winds blowing north/northwest around eight to 15 miles per hour
-Current Line: Michigan State +24, according to DraftKings

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Final thoughts: 

Michigan ranks No. 2 in the Associated Press top-25 Poll and the USA TODAY US LBM Coaches Poll, and ranks No. 1 in Bill Connelly's ESPN SP+ Rankings. The Wolverines are incredibly balanced and disciplined, albeit it mostly untested to this point in the season. This team is going to be a tremendous challenge for Michigan State.

Defensively, it feels like Michigan State will be forced to pick its poison in this game. Focus on shutting down the run, but then deal with McCarthy in the passing game, who is averaging 216 yards per game through the air and ranks second in the Big Ten in passing touchdowns (14). Focus on topping the pass and then get gashed for chunk plays on the ground by Corum, Edwards and possibly even McCarthy. Can the Spartans effectively stop both? That's a tall task.

Michigan has a lot of talented bodies it can throw at Michigan State. Again, this team is deep, and it's undefeated for a reason. Meanwhile, MSU hasn't won a game since Week Two versus Richmond. It's Michigan week, though. I expect the Spartans to be extremely motivated for this one. I think MSU will keep things close for two or two-and-half quarters, but it's hard to see anything more than that, though it is obviously possible.

Also, things have gotten a bit strange in Ann Arbor this week with the aforementioned sign-stealing/in-person scouting allegations. I don't really think this will have any impact on the Wolverines' performance on the field this week (insert joke about Michigan not being able to win without stealing other teams' signs), but it's an interesting storyline nonetheless. Not to mention, Michigan State has enough of its own off-the-field issues to worry about.

Houser will be making his second start against a strong defense. He is going to need a lot of help from his teammates. The Michigan State offense cannot give the ball away and cannot put Houser in too many tough situations. The Spartans have to play clean football and limit the penalties. This is a tough matchup for the Spartans any way you look at it. But strange things have happened in this rivalry, so it's too early to rule anything out.

For more on Michigan, check out Spartans Illustrated's Q&A with Maize 7 Blue Review.

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Scores / Schedule
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30 - 7
Overall Record
17 - 3
Conference Record
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71
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New Mexico
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