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Published Oct 13, 2023
Game Preview: Michigan State versus Rutgers
Ryan O'Bleness  •  Spartans Illustrated
Managing Editor
Twitter
@ryanobleness

Following a bye week, Michigan State (2-3, 0-2 in Big Ten play) travels to Piscataway, New Jersey to take on Rutgers (4-2, 1-2 in Big Ten play) on Saturday at noon Eastern Time. The game will air on the Big Ten Network.

MSU looks to end its three-game losing streak and get its first Big Ten win of the 2023 season, while RU hopes to bounce back after a road loss to Wisconsin. It will also be homecoming for the Scarlet Knights.

The Big Ten Network will bring its "B1G Tailgate" set to Rutgers on Saturday as well.

Rutgers boasts an impressive defense that ranks in the top-15 nationally in passing yards allowed per game, total yards allowed per game and points allowed per game. Can Michigan State's struggling offense break through against a tough defensive unit, and will fans see a potential change at the quarterback position? Those questions will be answered soon enough.

Here is a preview of this weekend's matchup.

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2023 statistics review: 

Michigan State:

-Record: 2-3 (0-2 in Big Ten)
-Offense (per game averages): 371.4 total yards, 251.4 passing yards, 120 rushing yards
-Defense (per game averages): 341.8 total yards allowed, 226.8 passing yards allowed, 115 rushing yards allowed
-Third-down offense: 36.36%
-Third-down defense: 22.73%
-Cumulative Points Scored: 108 (21.6 per game)
-Cumulative Points Allowed: 119 (23.8 per per game)

Rutgers:

-Record: 4-2 (1-2 in Big Ten)
-Offense (per game averages): 334.47 total yards, 161.17 passing yards, 173.3 rushing yards
-Defense (per game averages): 282.67 total yards allowed, 165.17 passing yards allowed, 117.5 rushing yards allowed
-Third-down offense: 30.8%
-Third-down defense: 36.6%
-Cumulative Points Scored: 167 (27.83 per game)
-Cumulative Points Allowed: 88 (14.67 per game)

Current SP+ rankings:

-Michigan State: 59th
-Rutgers: 58th

Series history/all-time records

-All-time head-to-head record: Michigan State leads 10-4
-Current streak: Michigan State has won two in a row
-Last Michigan State win: Nov. 12, 2022 (27-21)
-Last Rutgers win: Oct. 24, 2020 (38-27)
-Michigan State all-time record: 728-482-44 (.598)
-Rutgers all-time record: 670-692-42 (.492)

Uniform watch:

Michigan State:

The Spartans will go with the green-white-green look on the road in Piscataway this weekend. It will be green helmets with a white Greek key stripe, white jerseys with green lettering and numbering, and green pants for the Spartans.

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Rutgers:

It doesn't appear that Rutgers has posted about its uniforms this weekend, but expect Scarlet jerseys with white or grey accents, white or grey pants and red helmets with the white "R" logo, perhaps similar to the image below.

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Previous game results:

Iowa 26, Michigan State 16 (prior to bye week)

The Hawkeyes found the scoreboard first, early in the first quarter, as Iowa kicker Drew Stevens knocked through a 40-yard field goal to give his team a 3-0 lead.

However, later in the first quarter, Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara went down with an injury. Unfortunately, the injury was a torn ACL and McNamara will miss the rest of the year.

With 3:48 remaining in the first quarter, MSU kicker Jonathan Kim tied the game at 3-3 with a 31-yard field goal. Kim would later add a 32-yard field goal to give the Spartans a 6-3 advantage in the early second quarter.

Deeper into the second quarter, Michigan State had a promising drive going until quarterback Noah Kim threw an interception in the end zone to Iowa defensive back Cooper DeJean.

The Hawkeyes capitalized on the turnover, scoring the game's only offensive touchdown, on the ensuing possession. Backup quarterback Deacon Hill found tight end Erick All for a 13-yard touchdown and Iowa took a 10-6 lead with 3:48 left before halftime.

Before the break, Jonathan Kim booted through an impressive 58-yard field goal. Iowa led 10-9 at halftime.

Michigan State's first drive of the second half quickly ended when Noah Kim threw another interception, this time to Iowa defensive back Sebasation Castro. However, the MSU defense stepped up when defensive end Tunmise Adeleye forced a fumble and linebacker Cal Haladay scooped it and scored it on a 42-yard return. The Spartans led 16-10 early in the third quarter.

Michigan State's defense stepped up again on Iowa's next possession when nickel back Angelo Grose intercepted Hill. However, Michigan State went for it on fourth-and-1 on the ensuing possession from its own 30-yard line and did not convert. This led to another Stevens field goal (53 yards) and Iowa cut MSU's lead to 16-13 about midway through the third quarter.

In the fourth quarter, with 5:14 remaining, DeJean scored on a punt return touchdown to give the Hawkeyes a 23-16 lead.

On the following possession, Michigan State wide receiver Tre Mosley fumbled the ball. Iowa recovered and later tacked on another field goal. Noah Kim then threw another pick and that was all she wrote.

For the full game recap, click here.

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Wisconsin 24, Rutgers 13

Rutgers hit the road, but couldn't steal a win in Madison against Wisconsin.

The Badgers jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead by halftime that included a 39-yard field goal by kicker Nathanial Vakos, an 18-yard touchdown run by running back Braelon Allen and a 95-yard interception return touchdown by cornerback Ricardo Hallman.

Rutgers would eventually get on the scoreboard late in the third quarter when quarterback Evan Simon connected with running back Aaron Young for a 10-yard touchdown. The extra point was missed, and the Badgers led 17-6 with 1:26 left in the third quarter.

In the fourth quarter, Wisconsin added to its lead when quarterback Tanner Mordecai found tight end Tucker Ashcraft for a three-yard touchdown. This gave the Badgers a commanding 24-6 lead with 10:51 left to play.

With 4:07 remaining on the clock, quarterback Gavin Wimsatt threw an 11-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Ian Strong to make the score 24-13 in Wisconsin's favor. However, that would be the last score of the game.

Despite forcing and recovering two fumbles and winning the turnover battle (two giveaways for the Badgers versus only one for the Scarlet Knights), Rutgers came up short.

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Key matchups:

-Battle of the trenches/run games: Offensively, Rutgers boasts a top-50 ground attack in the Football Bowl Subdivision (sixth in the Big Ten), averaging 173.3 yards per game. The Scarlet Knights will lean on heavily on running back Kyle Monangai and may rotate some other tailbacks in. Meanwhile, Michigan State's defense ranks 34th in the country (seventh in the Big Ten) in rushing yards allowed per game at 115. This looks to be a strength-on-strength battle and the Spartans will have to limit RU's rushing attack to earn a win. On the other side of the coin, Michigan State's offense ranks just 104th nationally and 11th in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game (120). Running back Nathan Carter has found success this season, but he will need more help from his teammates in this one. Rutgers comes in with the eighth-best rushing defense in the Big Ten and ranks 39th in the country (117.5 yards allowed per game). This is obvious, but whichever offensive line can generate more of a push, open holes, control the clock and establish dominance in the run game will more than likely win the game.

-Michigan State must make Gavin Wimsatt beat the Spartans through the air: As mentioned above, Rutgers wants to run the football. The Scarlet Knight rely on the ground attack and good defense to win games. If Michigan State wants to earn a Big Ten victory on the road, the Spartans have to force Wimsatt to beat them through the passing game. Wimsatt can make plays with his feet, rushing for 244 yards and four touchdowns, but his passing prowess is still a work in progress. He's completing just 51.77% of his throws this season and has thrown for 914 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. Wimsatt is only averaging 152.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 11th in the Big Ten. As a team, Rutgers ranks just 118th in the country at 161.2 yards per game. If the Spartans neutralize the Scarlet Knights' running game and put the pressure on Wimsatt's shoulders, it will likely bode well for MSU. Although, perhaps the Spartans should be careful what they wish for if this is the plan, as Wimsatt did throw for a career-high 236 yards against Michigan State in 2022.

-Limit turnovers and penalties: Since taking over the helm for Michigan State, Harlon Barnett has preached discipline, but it hasn't translated to games thus far. After a 10-penalty outing against Iowa, resulting in 94 yards, Barnett and the coaching staff are finding unique ways during the practice week to deter the mistakes. However, the real test comes in the game on Saturday. Michigan State will have a hard enough time against Rutgers by itself. The Spartans cannot afford to keep beating themselves due to penalties and turnovers. Speaking of turnovers, Michigan State has given the ball away nine times combined in the past two outings. Additionally, in the past three games, Michigan State has scored a combined two offensive touchdowns, including zero versus Iowa. Devastating turnovers, untimely penalties, lack of execution and missed opportunities have plagued this team. and If this trend continues, the Spartans will be looking another loss.

Game info: 

-Date/Kickoff Time: Saturday, Oct. 14, 12:01 p.m. Eastern Time
-TV Channel: Big Ten Network
-TV Announcers: Cory Provus (play-by-play), Matt Millen (analyst), Elise Menaker (sidelines)
-Location: SHI Stadium, Piscataway, New Jersey
-Weather Expectations: Rain, with temperature around 54 degrees at kickoff, and winds blowing north/northeast around three to six miles per hour
-Current Line: Michigan State +4.5, according to DraftKings

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Final thoughts: 

Interestingly, Michigan State and Rutgers are extremely close to each other in Bill Connelly's ESPN SP+ Rankings. The Scarlet Knights rank 58th overall (2.1 rating) and the Spartans rank 59th (1.9 rating).

Offensively, both teams are struggling and in the 80s in Connelly's metrics (80th nationally for Rutgers and 89th for Michigan State), but perhaps more surprisingly, MSU's defense (21.3 rating, 29th nationally) is ranked higher than RU's (22.8, 40th). The lower the rating for defense, the better, and it's the opposite for offense, as SP+ rankings are "presented in the form of an adjusted points per game figure." Michigan State also ranks higher in special teams play in the SP+ rankings (35) than Rutgers (53rd).

Here is another interesting stat from Parker Fleming of cfb-graphs.com (graphic below): Michigan State's defense is No. 1 in the country in his third-down/fourth-down success rate metric (21.8%), but also ranks 109th in the country on early downs in terms of giving up first downs on first or second down (35.9%). Defensively, the Spartans also rank 86th nationally in early downs EPA (expected points added, 0.025).

That basically paints the story of what we've seen from the MSU defense this year: struggles on first and second down before buckling down and getting stops when the team is actually able to force opponents into third-down situations. MSU also ranks second in the FBS in third-down defense (22.73% conversion percentage allowed).

Offensively, Michigan State ranks poorly in just about every one of Fleming's metrics, including average starting field position, in which MSU ranks 121st (26.2). On the contrary, Rutgers stacks up quite well in just about every defensive metric listed in the graphic below.

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All of this is intriguing to look at, but at the end of the day, advanced stats only mean so much. The game still has to be played on the field and a lot of different variables throughout the contest will lead to a win or a loss.

Both teams are going to lean heavily on the ground attack in this game — Michigan State with running back Nate Carter (perhaps with others mixing in) and Rutgers with running back Kyle Monangai (and others rotating) in. This is typical for both squads, but will be especially true if the conditions are wet and slippery on Saturday as expected. It could be a quick-moving, low-scoring games if both offenses look to control the clock through their rushing attacks.

There has also been a lot of smoke that Michigan State could make a switch at quarterback with redshirt junior Noah Kim potentially being replaced by redshirt freshman Katin Houser. Earlier this week, interim head coach Harlon Barnett was vague about the quarterback situation, but said the coaching staff knew which way it wanted to go.

Michigan State is also coming off of a bye week, and Barnett expects to have some healthy bodies back in the lineup, including tight end Maliq Carr, which will obviously help the Spartans.

Like Michigan State, Rutgers isn't scaring anybody offensively. However, as has been mentioned, the Scarlet Knights rank amongst the best in the nation in several defensive categories. If Houser does draw the start, or if Kim remains in there, will Michigan State's offense that has continuously hurt itself due to penalties and turnovers be able to move the football and score points against a stout defensive unit? We'll see.

A Big Ten win would mean a lot for a Michigan State program that is going through both off-the-field and on-the-field struggles right now. However, this isn't a typical Rutgers team. This squad is tough, well-coached and looking to defeat a MSU squad it is has historically struggled against. The Scarlet Knights' formula of hard-nosed defense and a formidable rushing offense has already led to four wins in six games.

I expect a close game throughout, and it's possible the first team to 20 points or so wins this one.

For more information on Rutgers, check out Spartans Illustrated's Q&A with the Knight Report and read our the "Get To Know The Opponent" column.

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