Happy Rivalry Week to those who celebrate! A few weeks ago, Michigan State fans envisioned that this week and this season was going to be a lot more fun. But MSU has struggled through controversy and adversity and finds itself in the midst of a four-game losing streak. The pressure so far this year has almost burned the building down. These are the days it never rains, but it pours.

Meanwhile, in Ann Arbor, the No. 2-ranked Michigan Wolverines have laid waste to six-straight opponents with an average margin of victory of 33 points. The odds for Michigan State to have anything resembling a good weekend are small, but they are not zero. Earlier this week I laid out my case for optimism in this year's battle for Paul Bunyan. The main points are as follows.

There is a chance that Michigan State is a little better than we realize and possibly much better if the Spartans can just eliminate the turnovers, penalties and other mental mistakes. There is a chance that Michigan's soft schedule has hidden some issues that a highly-motivated Spartan team might exploit. There is a chance that the night game, new uniforms and the presence of associate head coach Mark Dantonio on the sidelines might spark some magic.

Is an upset likely? Of course not. Is it possible? Of course it is. Football is a wild game with an oblong ball played by college kids. In this rivalry anything can happen, and often has.

Ultimately, this game may come down to the emotional aspects of the game more so than the physical or strategic aspects. For many current Michigan State staff members, this is likely their last dance in this rivalry. Some of those people will soon be out on the street. This is a chance for the staff and players to give themselves one more chance at doing something great. The Spartans have nothing to lose.

On the other sideline, the Wolverines have everything to lose. For the first time in decades, Michigan fans might actually be correct about the ceiling and potential of their team. Furthermore, the Wolverines are motivated more than ever not just to beat the Spartans, but to humiliate them. These factors both create pressure.

Pressure is a dangerous thing. It can push down on you. If channeled in a certain direction, pressure can be a weapon. But if that pressure is uncontrolled, it can blow up in one’s face. How will the untested Wolverines handle being under real pressure, assuming that the Spartans are able to generate that pressure in the first place?

The answer to that question will determine if Michigan wins in blowout fashion, if the game it close, or if the improbable happens on Saturday night.

This week marks the 116th all-time meeting between the Spartans and the Wolverines, going back to 1898. Michigan leads the all-time series with a record of 72-38-5, thanks in large part to 44 of the first 50 games in the series being played in Ann Arbor.

Since the Spartans officially joined the Big Ten in 1950, Michigan's lead in the series is a much smaller at 39-32-2, and the Spartans have won 10 of the past 15 contests. Michigan State has also done well against the Wolverines against the spread (ATS) in recent years. The Spartans are 13-2 ATS in the last 15 games.

Michigan State has also historically played the Wolverines close in East Lansing, even in down years. Of the eight Wolverine victories in East Lansing since 1985, only three of those wins were by double-digits, with the worst loss being a 17-point loss in 1991.

But this year the task of just keeping the game competitive will be difficult. The point spread for the game opened with the Wolverines favored by 24 points. That is slightly higher that the opening spread of 20 points in the ill-fated 2016 season as well as the opening spread of 22.5-points for the game in 2020 in Ann Arbor (which the Spartans ultimately won).

By these measures, Michigan State will enter Saturday's game as the biggest underdog in series history, going back at least to the 1990 game where Desmond Howard and the No. 1 Wolverines got tripped up by the Spartans in Ann Arbor.

Based on the opening spread, Michigan State has roughly a 5% chance to pull the upset this weekend. That is approximately the same odds that a typical No. 15 seed has to upset a No. 2 seed in the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.

A path for a possible Spartan upset does exist. Michigan State must find a way to play physical, disciplined football for 60 minutes. That means no turnovers, no errors on special teams and limiting penalties and missed tackles. It probably also means that Michigan is going to need to be a bit sloppy, especially to start the game.

Michigan State likely needs to benefit from a tipped-pass pick six, a scoop and score on a fumble or a cornerback slipping on the turf. If the Spartans can gain the early momentum, then they will have a chance. If the Wolverines start to feel the pressure and make additional errors, and if the crowd starts to get into it, things will get interesting.

But unfortunately, I don't see that happening. The Spartans will likely be able to trade blows with Michigan for the first quarter and maybe even the first half. But the second half will most likely get ugly. It is just a question of how ugly. The scenario that I outlined above could happen, but it involves MSU playing a cleaner game than we have seen all year and getting a bit of luck. Until that happens, I file it under "I will believe it when I see it."

My computer outputs a final score of Michigan 37, Michigan State 10. I have Michigan covering and the teams just barely squeaking under the 48-point total. That sounds about right.

Table 1 below gives a summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Eight, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials.

Note that all rankings referenced below for each team are my computer's power rankings.