In my experience there are two kinds of Michigan State fans: pessimists and optimists.

When it comes to the 2023 Michigan State football team, the pessimists are having a field day. A major scandal, a rash of decommitments and a four-game losing streak will do that.

As difficult as the first half of the 2023 season has been, things could get a lot worse. Michigan State has been blessed with the most difficult schedule in the country this year, and the second half is more challenging than the first.

This week, of course, is Michigan Week. On Saturday evening in Spartan Stadium, the Spartans and the Wolverines will square off for the right to bring the Paul Bunyan Trophy home. Even in the best of times, Michigan Week is a time of nervous energy and anxiety. These are certainly not the best of times.

The squad that the Wolverines will bring to Spartan Stadium is good, very good. Michigan currently ranks as the No. 2 team in the nation and many experts suggest UM might be the best team in the country. The Wolverines are so good that they might even win a bowl game this year. Some suggest that they could even win a pair.

As for the game itself this Saturday, the oddsmakers have set the opening line with the Wolverines as 24-point favorites. My analysis reveals that this is the largest opening spread in the history of the rivalry going back to at least 1997.

History also tells me that teams that are 24-point underdogs win straight up less than 5% of the time. An upset of this magnitude typically occurs once or twice a year. These are approximately the same odds that a No. 15 seed has to beat a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.

If the Spartans were to pull the upset, it would be the second biggest upset of the season so far. It would be the biggest upset in the history of the rivalry since Desmond Howard and the Wolverines slipped up in Ann Arbor in 1990. It would be the biggest upset for a Michigan State team period since a young Nick Saban beat Ohio State (-27.5) in Columbus in 1998.

In other words, the odds are not in favor of the Green and White on Saturday night. If you happen to be one of those pessimistic Spartans fans, you can just stop reading now.

Because, as the self-appointed Chief Optimism Officer of Spartans Illustrated, I am here to tell you to forget all of that. Michigan State has a chance on Saturday.

The path for a Spartan victory is narrow and rocky, but it does exist. The odds are small, but they are not zero. If nothing else, the odds that Michigan State reclaims Paul Bunyan are still higher than the odds that Urban Meyer is the next head football coach in East Lansing.

Ladies and gentlemen of the MSU sports internet, I present my case for optimism and hope this weekend and beyond.

Despite the very large point spread this year, history shows that Michigan State usually plays Michigan much closer than expected, especially at home. The Spartans are 8-5 against the spread at home since 1997 and 6-1 since 2009.

Michigan rarely wins by double-digits in East Lansing. In fact, it has only happened 12 times in history and only three times in the last 40 years. Michigan won 21-7 in 2018, 23-7 in 1997, and 45-28 in 1991.

The remaining 15 most recent home games were either single-digit losses (in five games) or straight-up wins (in 10 games) for the Spartans. One must go back to a 31-0 shutout in 1985 to find a scoring margin as big as the one floating in the daydreams of the Wolverine faithful this week.

The most recent home game for the Spartans under similar circumstances was 2016, when the point spread for the rivalry game in East Lansing was a similar +24.5 for Michigan at kickoff. Michigan State trailed much of that contest, but almost made things interesting in the fourth quarter before finally falling 32-23.

I am optimistic that the 2023 Spartan team is significantly better than the squad from 2016. If the game is close in the fourth quarter, anything can happen.

The Spartans' current record of 2-4 is unsightly, and the various computer rankings paint an ugly picture. ESPN's Football Power Index ranks Michigan State as No. 59 in the country. The SP+ algorithm has MSU at No. 55. My computer is not even that generous. It has the Spartans ranked No. 70.

That said, while the Spartans were clearly on the losing end of the scoreboard in each of the past four weekends, a look at the box scores shows some encouraging signs. The loss to No. 5 Washington was a complete beatdown, but it came on the heels of a wild and emotional week for the Spartans. The other three games are a different matter.

Michigan State got behind early against Maryland, but for the game the Spartans had more first downs (26 to 18), more total yards (376 to 362) and held the ball for almost three minutes longer than the Terrapins. The problem on that particular Saturday was turnovers, where Michigan State was minus-four (-4) for the day.

In the game at Iowa City, the Spartans were the better team for the first three quarters. Michigan State accumulated more first downs (20 to 15), total yards (349 to 222), and held the ball for longer (by over seven minutes). Once again, the four turnovers were the story.

Last weekend, the case can be made the Michigan State was not just the better team for the first three quarters, but that the Spartans were the much better team overall. It took multiple special teams errors in the fourth quarter to turn the tide in Rutgers' favor. The Spartans also seem to have found the quarterback of the future in Katin Houser.

If the Spartans were to have eliminated (or just reduced) the turnovers and blunders on special teams, it is not difficult to imagine a scenario where Michigan State is 5-1 with a single loss to a top-five team. The difference between 2-4 and 5-1 can sometimes be remarkably small. The conversation this week would be much different in that scenario.

Maryland, Iowa and Rutgers are not among the Big Ten elite, but they are all solid teams. Iowa is now the front runner in the Big Ten West. Most importantly, all three teams are better than any team that has faced the Wolverines so far this year based on the same computer power rankings mentioned above. The exception is the lone common opponent, Rutgers, which Michigan State played on the road and in which Michigan faced at home.

This line of reasoning leads to the next point.

Michigan's schedule so far has not exactly been a "murderers' row." In fact, my calculations rate the Wolverine's schedule year-to-date as the 21st easiest in the nation and the second easiest of all Power Five teams.

Ironically, the only Power Five team that grades out with an easier schedule so far is No. 1 Georgia. By contrast, Michigan State plays the overall toughest schedule in the nation this year. Year-to-date, the Spartans' schedule grades out as the 18th most difficult.

The Wolverines are blowing teams out, yes, but they are relatively untested. Against the only common opponent, Rutgers, Michigan led the Scarlet Knights 14-7 at halftime and 24-7 at the end of the third quarter. Michigan State led Rutgers 17-6 at half time and 24-6 at the end of the third quarter, on the road.

While the fourth quarters of those two games played out very differently, one could argue that for 45 minutes of game time, the Spartans did better than Michigan against the only common opponent.

With that said, make no bones about it, this Michigan team is going to pose a lot of difficult challenges for MSU. But the Spartans aren't looking to back down.

This rivalry has always been emotional, and that intensity has only ratcheted up over the past few years. On some level this year will be no different. But there are aspects of this year's game that may not break in Michigan's favor.

For the first time in the history of the rivalry, it will be a night game played in East Lansing. Michigan State has had a tough year, and the Spartans literally have nothing to lose. They are on the verge of missing a bowl game and they don't even have a head coach. The Spartans have the freedom to play loose. Any positive momentum early will be loudly amplified by a well-lubricated home crowd.

The team on the opposite sideline, however, will have everything to lose. Many folks in Ann Arbor see this as the best chance since 1948 for the Wolverines to claim a consensus national title. The SEC appears to be having a down year, and the path is opening for another team from another conference to finally break through.

But Michigan is also not the only elite team in the Big Ten East. Both No. 7 Penn State and No. 3 Ohio State also both have eyes on a potential College Football Playoff berth. Both teams remain on Michigan's schedule.

The Wolverines can afford to lose one game and they will still feel good about finishing in the top-four of the final playoff poll. But 10-2 is unlikely to get the job done. If the Wolverines lose on Saturday, their margin for error shrinks to zero.

Furthermore, Michigan is rarely properly prepared emotionally to face the Spartans. It is part of the Wolverine culture, in football especially, not to take the rivalry as seriously as they should. They insist that their real rivals are the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Wolverines must lack the bandwidth to get motivated for more than one game per season.

In some years, the Wolverines have entered the contest with Michigan State with the apparent attitude that they just need to "show up and be awesome." That strategy worked for several decades... until it didn't.

The fact is that Michigan State won 10 of the last 15 games against Michigan. This fact may have finally gotten the attention of the Wolverines. However, the pendulum may have swung too far in the opposite direction.

Michigan does not just want to beat Michigan State, they want to humiliate them. Last year in the fourth quarter, Michigan tried, quite hard, to run up the score against Michigan State. This strategy failed. Perhaps deep down the Wolverines believe that this will erase some of the painful memories of the past 15 years.

There is a good chance that the Wolverines (either consciously or subconsciously) will enter the game on Saturday expecting to win the game by 35 points or more. That task will likely be harder than they are expecting.

This year Michigan has a habit of starting off a game slowly. If that happens again, or if the ball bounces the wrong way a few times, the Wolverines could find themselves in an early hole in a very hostile environment.

If such a scenario were to play out, how would these Wolverines react? Will they press more? Will that lead to more mistakes and an even bigger hole? A very similar scenario played out last winter in front of the nation in the national semifinal game against TCU.

If the Spartan can find a way to play focused, disciplined football for 60 minutes, could they steal a page from TCU’s playbook and earn an upset victory as well?

In addition to the potential advantages listed above, the Spartans have one additional secret weapon. TCU didn't have it. Michigan certainly doesn't have it. Michigan State didn't even have him until a few weeks ago.

But the Spartans did have this weapon between 2007 and 2019. That secret weapon is Mark Dantonio, who recently returned to the MSU sideline as associate head coach.

When Coach Dantonio arrived in East Lansing, he changed the rules of the rivalry in a way that no coach since Duffy Daugherty has been able to manage. Dantonio refused to kowtow to the mighty Wolverines. He refused to play second fiddle in the state. When a certain diminutive running back running back chose to win with arrogance instead of class, Dantonio put him in his place.

"It's not over. It will never be over. It's just getting started."

Those words still generate butterflies in the stomachs of Spartan fans. They likely also still strike fear into the hearts of Wolverine fans. Coach Dantonio owned the Wolverines for a decade. He had a certain way of getting the Spartans to play at their absolute peak during Michigan Week.

And this year he is back.

Michigan State always plays Michigan tough. It will be the hardest hitting game that the Wolverines have seen all year. Coach Dantonio will make sure of that. The guys in Maize and Blue better be ready for it.

Granted, his presence on the sideline over the past four weeks didn't seem to help in terms of getting in the win column. But Michigan Week is different. Can Dantonio work some magic? Does he still have a few tricks up his sleeve? Can we at least see one properly executed fake punt or kick? Please? Just for me?

Dantonio has the blueprint to beat Michigan. Earlier this week, interim head coach Harlon Barnett didn't want to publicly discuss Dantonio's "secret formula to success" against the Wolverines, but it is certainly being analyzed and implemented in every way by the current Michigan State coaching staff.

That all said, the cold, hard numbers still tell that more likely than not, Michigan State is not going to win this weekend. In that eventuality, I encourage Spartan fans not to lose hope. Brighter days are just over the horizon.

For the reasons stated above, I believe that there is a team with some talent in East Lansing. I do not think that Spartan football fans will need to wait until next fall for something to feel good about. I believe that this team will still generate some happy moments this fall.

Based on the situation and the remaining schedule, MSU may not have the time left or talent required to win four of the final six games needed to earn a bowl bid. That is unfortunate, but it is not the end of the world or even the end of the program.

Next season, a new era of Spartan football will begin with a new coach. The roster will look a lot different, and that's OK as well. Michigan State has the resources, the facilities, the history and the fan base to attract and hire an excellent head football coach. I believe that the university will do just that.

No matter who is coaching the Spartans next year and no matter which team takes Paul back home with them this year, next year will provide yet another opportunity to retain him or to reclaim him. So will the year after that, and after that, and after that.

Because it is not over once the clock hits all zeros on Saturday night. It will never be over. Very soon, it will begin again.

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