Game Preview: Penn State versus Michigan State

Only one game remains in the regular season for Michigan State (4-7, 2-6 in Big Ten play) in 2023, and while the Spartans' incredibly slim bowl game hopes are surprisingly still alive, there is a good chance that Friday night's game against Penn State could very well be the finale of a tumultuous season.

Penn State enters the Black Friday contest with an overall record of 9-2 and a mark of 6-2 in the Big Ten.

The game is scheduled for a 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time kickoff at Ford Field in Detroit.

With the Land-Grant Trophy up for grabs, let's take a closer look at the matchup.

Michigan State:

-Record: 4-7 (2-6 in Big Ten)
-Offense (per game averages): 309.88 total yards, 210.18 passing yards, 99.7 rushing yards
-Defense (per game averages): 372.41 total yards allowed, 231.91 passing yards allowed, 140.5 rushing yards allowed
-Third-down offense: 32.21%
-Third-down defense: 34.48%
-Cumulative Points Scored: 191 (17.36 per game)
-Cumulative Points Allowed: 298 (27.09 per game)

Penn State:

-Record: 9-2 (6-2 in Big Ten)
-Offense (per game averages): 373.26 total yards, 195.36 passing yards, 177.9 rushing yards
-Defense (per game averages): 238.7 total yards allowed, 161 passing yards allowed, 77.7 rushing yards allowed
-Third-down offense: 40.88 %
-Third-down defense: 31.08%
-Cumulative Points Scored: 404 (36.73 per game)
-Cumulative Points Allowed: 137 (12.45 per game)

Current SP+ rankings:

-Michigan State: No. 82
-Penn State: No. 6

-All-time head-to-head record: Tied 18-18-1
-Current streak: Penn State has a one-game winning streak
-Last Michigan State win: Nov. 27, 2021 (30-27)
-Last Penn State win: Nov. 26, 2022 (35-16)
-Michigan State all-time record: 730-486-44 (.597)
-Penn State all-time record: 929-408-42 (.689)

Michigan State:

The Spartans will wear green helmets with a white Spartan head logo and white face mask, green jerseys with white lettering and numbering, and white pants.

Penn State:

The Nittany Lions will likely wear white helmets with a blue stripe, white jerseys with blue numbers, white pants and black cleats.

Michigan State 24, Indiana 21

Despite only traveling with 45 scholarship players, Michigan State picked up its first road win over the season over Indiana.

Michigan State opened the game with a touchdown on its first possession. A nine-play 62 yard drive was completed when quarterback Katin Houser connected with tight end Maliq Carr on a 17-yard passing play for six points. Following the extra point by Jonathan Kim, the Spartans led 7-0 early on.

Later in the first quarter, after three combined punts, Indiana defensive back Josh Sanguinetti intercepted Houser on a third-down-and-17 play to give the Hoosiers the ball back. However, IU was quickly forced to punt again, as was Michigan State on the ensuing possession.

On Indiana's next drive, the Hoosiers finally got on the scoreboard at the 9:29 mark of the second quarter. Running back Trent Howland scored from four yards out, and after the extra point from Chris Freeman, the score was tied at 7-7.

Near the end of the second quarter, Michigan State found the end zone again. Houser threw it to wide receiver Montorie Foster Jr., who caught the ball one-handed, spun away from one defender, broke the tackle of another defender, and crossed the goal line on a 29-yard touchdown play with 1:10 remaining before the break. The 14-7 score held through halftime.

Indiana scored quickly to open up the second half, though, as quarterback Brendan Sorsby hit James Bomba for a three-yard touchdown pass. The score was tied 14-14 in the early part of the third quarter.

Later in the third quarter, Houser threw another pick, this time to IU's Jamari Sharpe, but on the interception return, Carr forced Sharpe to fumble, which was recovered by MSU's Alante Brown, and the Spartans retained possession. However, MSU would ultimately punt the ball away.

In the fourth quarter, Kim made a 36-yard field goal to give the Spartans a 17-14 lead with 9:31 remaining to play.

Indiana answered with a touchdown on its next drive. Sorsby threw an eight-yard touchdown pass to tight end Trey Walker with 4:13 to play. The Hoosiers took a 21-17 lead.

The Spartans responded with a late touchdown pass from Houser to Carr, as the tight end made an incredible play, and scored from 36 yards out. MSU led 24--21 with just 1:19 remaining.

The Hoosiers eventually had a chance to tie, but Freeman missed a 48-yard field goal attempt, and the Spartans held on for the victory.

For the full game recap, click here.

Penn State 27, Rutgers 6

Rutgers actually found the scoreboard first, and the first half was closely-contested before Penn State broke away in the second half.

With 4:43 left in the first quarter, kicker Jai Patel put Rutgers up 3-0 with a 35-yard field goal. This was the only score of the opening quarter.

Penn State responded with a long drive that covered 75 yards in 15 plays and took eight minutes off the clock. With 11:36 remaining in the second quarter, running back Kaytron Allen found the end zone from two yards out, and the Nittany Lions took a 7-3 lead after the extra point.

On Rutgers' next drive, quarterback Gavin Wimsatt fumbled, and it was recovered by Penn State at RU's 32-yard line. This eventually led to a 21-yard field goal by PSU kicker Alex Felkins to give the Nittany Lions a 10-3 lead with 8:44 left in the second quarter.

Later in the second quarter, Penn State running back Nick Singleton fumbled, which was recovered by Rutgers at its own 36-yard line, however, the Scarlet Knights eventually punted the ball back to PSU.

Later, with just two seconds left in the second quarter, Patel knocked through a 28-yard field goal to cut Penn State's lead to four points, 10-6, at halftime.

The second half was all Penn State, although the third quarter was relatively uneventful.The only score of the quarter came on a 48-yard field goal by Felkins to extend the Nittany Lions' lead to 13-6.

Also in the third quarter, Wimsatt was strip-sacked by Penn State Demeioun "Chop" Robinson, and the ball was recovered by Robinson. This eventually led to an early fourth quarter lead for PSU when Allen on the ground scored again. The Nittany Lions led 20-6 with 14:14 left to play.

Wimsatt threw an interception on Rutgers' next possession, which later led to a rushing touchdown from Penn State quarterback Beau Pribula, making the score 27-6 after the extra point. That would ultimately be the final score.

Of note, Penn State starting quarterback Drew Allar left the game in the third quarter, but he is expected to play versus Michigan State on Friday.

-Michigan State's offense versus Penn State's defense: This is a rather broad and obvious matchup highlight, but I just can't find an area in which the Michigan State offense has a matchup advantage over the Penn State defense, at least on paper. The Nittany Lions rank in the top-six in the country in total defense, passing defense, rushing defense and points allowed. On the other side, MSU ranks no better than 120th (out of 130 FBS teams) in three of those four categories (88th in passing offense). Penn State's defense allows 238.7 total yards, 161 passing yards, 77.7 rushing yards and 12.45 points per game. Compare this to Michigan State's offense, which averages about 309.9 total yards, 210.2 passing yards, 99.7 rushing yards and 17.36 points (cumulative) per game. MSU's offense did show some improvement last week, particularly through the air, as Katin Houser threw for a career-high 245 yards and three touchdowns (however, he also threw two interceptions), but the Penn State defense just looks too tough to keep that momentum going. Penn State's defense has no shortage of talent with players like "Chop" Robinson, Kobe King, Kalen King, Adisa Isaac, Dani Dennis-Sutton, Johnny Dixon, Jaylen Reed and many others.

-Kayton Allen/Nick Singleton/PSU offensive line versus MSU defensive front: Allen (714 yards, six rushing touchdowns) and Singleton (584 yards, seven rushing touchdowns) have combined for 1,298 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground through 11 games this season. Penn State has essentially had an even split between the two running backs as Allen has 147 carries to Singleton's 145. Singleton has been used more as a pass-catcher with 20 receptions for 154 receiving yards and an additional touchdown, compared to Allen's 11 receptions for 64 yards (no touchdowns in the passing game). Both Allen and Singleton have seen their yards per carry and rushing yards per game decrease in 2023 versus 2022. Allen went from 66.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry last season to 64.9 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry this season, while Singleton has had a much larger drop, going from 81.6 yards per game and 6.8 yards per carry in 2022 to just 53.1 yards per game and 4.0 yards per attempt in 2023. Both tailbacks scored double-digit touchdowns on the ground last year as well, and Allen heads into this week with six, while Singleton has seven thus far in 2023. All of that said, this is still one of the most formidable backfields in the country. Penn State ranks second in the Big Ten in at 177.9 rushing yards per game. The Michigan State defense, meanwhile, ranks ninth in the conference with 140.5 rushing yards allowed per game. The Spartans have to contain Allen and Singleton, as well as the Penn State quarterbacks Drew Allar and Beau Pribula on the ground, in order to be competitive in this game.

-In-game coaching decisions: Spartan fans have been vocal about disappointment with the coaching staff's play calls, schemes and in-game decision-making for the majority of the 2023 season, and quite frankly, over the past two seasons or more. With all of that said, it's not an easy job to do, and I always find it funny, personally, when people watching from their couch think they could do a better job at calling plays and making in-game adjustments than Power Five coordinators and coaches. With that said, there have certainly been some odd play calls, personnel decisions, in-game coaching choices, etc. this season. There is no denying that, but just keep in mind, contrary to popular belief, these coaches are at this level for a reason. Interim head coach Harlon Barnett wants to be Michigan State's permanent head coach. It may be unlikely, but he has a chance to make a statement with an upset win over Penn State and improve his resume. The assistant coaches are coaching for their futures, whether that be in East Lansing or elsewhere, as well. Will they be motivated or ready to mail it in? I would guess the former. The coaches need to have a great game plan and be willing and ready to make the proper adjustments in the game. On the other sideline, Michigan State fans have witnessed questionable coaching calls from Penn State head coach James Franklin and his staff over the years that may have helped lead to previous MSU victories over the Nittany Lions. However, he's also won a Big Ten championship and has an overall record of 87-38 at Penn State. So, Franklin knows how to win games, but he hasn't been able to beat the elite teams in the conference just yet either. Michigan State will be facing a talent disadvantage in this game on the field. The Spartans cannot afford to get out-coached, too.

-Date/Kickoff Time: Friday Nov. 24 at 7:35 p.m. Eastern Time
-TV Channel: NBC
-TV Announcers: Noah Eagle (play-by-play), Todd Blackledge (analyst), Kathryn Tappen (sidelines)
-Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
-Current Line: Michigan State +20.5, according to DraftKings

With the venue being changed to Ford Field, it will be interesting to see how much fan support the Spartans have in Detroit. I expect it will be significant, but I also expect Penn State fans to travel well and be prominent in the stadium.

Tight end Maliq Carr (Offensive Player of the Week) and quarterback Katin Houser (Freshman of the Week) both earned Big Ten Weekly honors for their performances versus Indiana last weekend. That is encouraging for Michigan State's offense.

What is not encouraging for Michigan State's offense is that it has to go up against one of the best defenses in the entire country. As detailed earlier, MSU's offense ranks toward the bottom of the nation in several statistical categories, while PSU's defense ranks toward the top.

If Michigan State is going to pull off an upset on Friday night, and keep its extremely low bowl hopes alive, it's likely going to take a Herculean effort from the defense, an offense that can move the ball, not turn it over and somehow score a couple of touchdowns, and perhaps something like a special teams or defensive touchdown for the Spartans as well.

I don't personally see all of that coming to fruition. The Spartans will struggle to put points up on the board. Creating big moments — generating turnovers on defense, hitting some explosive plays on offense and maybe getting some lucky bounces — might be what it takes for MSU to win this game.

This series has been incredibly competitive over time. The all-time record between the two programs is tied 18-18-1. However, in 2023, at least on paper, Penn State is the better team. Perhaps the Land-Grant Trophy being on the line, and with it likely being the last college football games for many of MSU's seniors and graduate seniors, the Spartans will have extra motivation in this game.

Penn State has underwhelmed offensively, especially at the wide receiver position outside of KeAndre Lambert-Smith. As mentioned, though, Allar is expected to be healthy enough to start at quarterback, and the two-headed monster in the backfield with Allen and Singleton is still very tough to deal with.

The defense for the Nittany Lions will likely control the outcome of this one, as the unit has done many times this year, and it just feels unlikely that Michigan State will be able to score enough points to win this game.

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