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Published Sep 21, 2023
Dr. Green and White Bad Betting Advice, Week Four: Judgment Day
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Paul Fanson  •  Spartans Illustrated
Staff Writer
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@PaulFanson

This feels like a blockbuster of a week for the Michigan State Spartans. The first two weeks of the season provided some promising signs, but then revelations about Mel Tucker's conduct came to light.

Then, the Washington Huskies paid a visit to East Lansing. In the first half of last week's game, the Huskies acted without pity, remorse or fear and they absolutely did not stop until they put up 35 points on the Spartan defense after two quarters of play. The score went final art 41-7.

To add to the chaos, the leadership at Michigan State has informed Tucker of their intent to terminate his contract. There is essentially no doubt now. Tucker will not be back.

But the Spartans still have nine games left on the schedule. Even before the season started, the home game against Maryland looked significant. Most experts expected the Spartans to be 2-1 at this juncture. A win in the first game of the Big Ten season could provide some positive momentum that would bolster the hopes of a bowl game.

However, a loss to Maryland could signal near apocalyptic doom for the Spartans' season and beyond. It will be increasingly difficult for the Spartans to get to six wins if they fall short this weekend. A loss could trigger an exodus of players to the transfer portal. The solid feelings of hope that Spartans felt after the Week Two blowout victory over Richmond would melt like a block of metal in steel plant smelter.

In other words, Saturday is starting to feel like Judgment Day.

The good news is that the Spartans still have the power to prevent this dark fate. The future has not been written. There is no fate but what they make for themselves. MSU needs to prove that on the field this Saturday.

Michigan State Prediction

Saturday's contest with the Maryland Terrapins will be the 14th all-time meeting of the schools, and the Spartans currently lead the series 10-3. Michigan State won four of five games against Maryland between 1944 and 1950. The series then resumed when the Terrapins joined the Big Ten in 2014. The Spartans have gone 6-2 in that span, with both losses occurring on the road.

Michigan State was favored in seven of the previous eight matchups. The Spartans lost on the road in 2016 as a three-point favorite and last year as a 7.5-point underdog. Overall, Michigan State is 4-4 against the spread versus Maryland in the modern era, and the teams hit the under on points in seven of the last eight games. The data this week suggests that this trend will continue.

This year marks the first time in modern history where Michigan State will host Maryland as the underdog. The Spartans opened as a 6.5-point home dog with an over/under at 53.5. That line has extended to 7.5 points, while the over/under has dropped to 52.5 points. This spread suggests that Michigan State has a one-in-three (33%) chance to spring the upset.

As for me and my computer, we land on the side of optimism this week. While the ugly loss to Washington last week was disturbing, the fact remains that the Spartans played well against the much weaker competition in the first two weeks. Maryland has only played weaker competition.

In fact, my computer ranks Central Michigan (Michigan State's Week One opponent) and Virginia (Maryland's opponent last week) as No. 101 and No. 102 in the country, respectively. Michigan State and Maryland won those games by similar margins. Furthermore, Maryland struggled early in Week Two against No. 108 Charlotte, which my computer suggests would only be favored over Richmond by a field goal.

When I consider the totality of this season, No. 41 Maryland is just slightly ahead of No. 44 Michigan State in my power rankings. The fact that this game will be played at Spartan Stadium means that MSU comes out slightly ahead.

As a result, my official prediction is Michigan State 27, Maryland 24, and a happy homecoming in East Lansing.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Three, including my projected scores, the opening point spread and the computers' projected point differentials.

Note that the rankings list below for each team are my computer's power rankings and not from either national poll.

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