Look at us, Michigan State fans. Happy. In September. The Spartans are 3-0. Head coach Jonathan Smith is still gainfully employed.

BUT MSU FANS COULD BE EVEN HAPPIER WITH A WIN AT CHESTNUT HILL.

Let's take a look at this week's 3-2-1 preview to see what Michigan State needs to do against Boston College on Saturday during the Eagles' "Red Bandana Game"

Continue the strong pass protection in the biggest test yet

The pass protection needs to be good for the Spartans every week, obviously. That’s a perfect world. But we don’t live in a perfect world, and that also means I can’t just magically wish for MSU’s interior run game to get better. If the Spartans want to surprise us and have a great game between the tackles, great, but I am waving the white flag on seeing that being a reliable part of the offense from here on out.

MSU’s path to victory is through the air and, unlike the interior run game, there is reason to believe in it. The pass protection has kept quarterback Aidan Chiles upright so far. And, while this is Michigan State's biggest test to date, it’s not a world-beating pass rush you are going up against.

Last week, the Eagles had just four pressures in a close loss to Missouri. It would be a lot to ask for that little of a number this weekend, but keep it under double-digits and let the passing game take advantage of Boston College’s weakness – its secondary.

Pour on the blitzes

Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos is electric and a very good quarterback. However, his numbers when blitzed did not make him comfortable last season, with a 56.4% completion percentage on 141 drop-backs against the blitz, per Pro Football Focus (good for 87th in the nation, minimum 50 attempts).

This season, it has gone up to 72.7% completion against blitzes, but he’s only faced 16 blitzes on drop-backs so far this season. That's a small sample size that I would like to see tested.

Nothing back-breaking, please, Aidan Chiles

I know I’m asking a lot here, and I’m going against what Smith has been preaching about Chiles – having patience. And we’ve echoed that too all summer long on the Locked On Spartans podcast. Growing pains are part of being a sophomore quarterback…but if he could NOT do the whole “force it into a mailbox-sized window 20 yards downfield instead of throwing it out of bounds” thing, that would be great for Michigan State's chances.

That was a semi-alarming decision last week that almost resulted in an interception, but was scrubbed from the record books due to off-setting penalties. But that was concerning – even for a young quarterback – for two reasons: 1.) You didn’t need to take that risk and 2.) that pass was likely never going to be completed to a Spartan even with 100 tries.

Right now on the season, Pro Football Focus has Chiles throwing seven percent of his passes as "Turnover Worthy Plays" – eighth most in the nation. He has thrown four interceptions and lost a fumble through three games.

Turnovers are inevitable with a young quarterback, but MSU has to avoid the ones on flatly bad decisions.

3.45

That’s the average time to throw in the pocket for Castellanos, per Pro Football Focus, which is good for best in the nation. That’s another sterling example of how solid the offensive line has been for Boston College, and how mixing in some blitzes from all over the field might be the best shot at a victory.

For MSU, life has been pretty good for Chiles, too as his time to throw is 3.06 seconds – good for 30th in the nation. Which offensive line can give their guy more tenths of a second to breath? That could very well be the decider of this game.

88

That’s the difference in penalty yards per game this season between the two teams – a staggering number. As a MSU fan, you likely already know the Spartans are on the high side of that difference with a whopping 114 penalty yards per game (on 33 total penalties). For Boston College, just a friendly 26 penalty yards (on 11 total penalties) this season.

MSU has been in the double-digits for committed penalties in each game, and on the other sideline there is a team that hardly sees any flags. Smith mentioned the pace the Spartans are on will eventually catch up to them if they don’t change their ways, and that could very well be this Saturday night if they don’t tighten it up.

I think with both defenses having the upper hand in the run battle and two quarterbacks that could be turnover prone, I like taking the under here. I am too much of a coward to bet either side of the spread because, quite frankly, I can see either team winning this thing by 20 points.

I took last week off (sorry about that), but we will try to pickup the momentum we have from the Maryland game.

Pick: Under 45.5

Record: 2-0

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