Michigan State heads into February 13-8 (5-5) with seven games to be played in a 22-day span. Here’s a run down of each of those games, and how I think MSU will fare in the month of February.

A few weeks ago MSU bested Maryland 61-59, handing Maryland only their third loss in their last 28 games in College Park, thanks to the steal of the year by Tre Holloman.

This Saturday MSU hosts Maryland in their second matchup of the year, a chance for MSU to flex their home court advantage.

Maryland is a defensive-minded team, proven by their lone spot atop the Big Ten in defense, giving up only 63.4 PPG on average. MSU trails only shortly behind the Terps in that metric, averaging 65.8 PPG allowed, good for second in the conference.

Maryland’s offensive struggles have been well documented; second-worst FG percentage at 41.8%, along with second-worst three-point percentage at 29.7%. Yet, five of their eight losses have been by three points or less. Their defense has kept them in many games, but their inability to score outside of their top three scorers, has left them one dimensional.

Outside of Jahmyr Young, Julian Reese, and Donta Scott - who combine for 44 points a game - the rest of the team averages just above 19 points total. Their limited depth and scoring options will, and has, held them back. I think MSU’s defense and home crowd will wear on this top heavy Terrapins squad.

KENPOM:52

PREDICTION: MSU 64, MD 58

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MSU’s win over Minnesota January 18th was an odd game. MSU had just five turnoverers compared to 19 by Minnesota, but as much as it seemed MSU was in firm control of the game, Minnesota stuck around.

Minnesota of late has struggled, though, losing four of their last five games, but in that stretch played MSU tough and nearly stormed the court in a heartbreaking loss at home to Wisconsin a week ago.

Minnesota shoots an efficient 47.8% from the field (third in the Big Ten), and sixth in the Big Ten in PPG at 76.6, one spot ahead of MSU. The Gophers have the fifth-ranked defense, giving up 68.3 points per game. Minnesota will utilize its solid six-deep rotation of scorers headlined by Dawson Garcia and facilitated by national leader in assists Elijah Hawkins at 7.7 APG, who was unavailable in Minnesota's last meeting against the Spartans.

Road games are never easy, but I think MSU’s backcourt will once again prove to be too much for the Gophers down the stretch.

KENPOM: 84

PREDICTION: MSU 66, MINN 61

This feels like another litmus test, in a seemingly year-long trial of litmus tests for this MSU team.

Illinois snuck past MSU at home (January 11th) by a score of 71-68, albeit to much controversy. MSU shot a measly seven free throws, compared to 21 by Illinois. But in the end MSU was let down by the lack of production outside their starting lineup, getting just four bench points on the night.

This time around, Illinois will have the services of its leading scorer Terrance Shannon, who recently returned from a month-long suspension. Shannon is yet to face a road crowd like the Breslin Center, and, in the four games since returning from suspension, has struggled. He’s shot just 4/20 from three and 16/45 from the field. If MSU wants its revenge, they’ll need to make Shannon uncomfortable early; I’m sure the Izzone will help out in that regard.

In the end, I think the variety of ways Illinois can get it done may prove to be too much for MSU on this night.

KENPOM: 10

PREDICTION: MSU 68, ILLINOIS 70

MSU’s January 4th win at home against Penn state may have been a high-point for this MSU basketball season. Hot off of four straight wins against Baylor, Oakland, Stoney Brook, and Indiana State, MSU dominated Penn state 92-61, putting their historic poor November start all but in the rear view mirror. Since then, that optimism has wavered for MSU, as front-court lack of production no longer is viewed as a momentary problem, but rather as a defining characteristic of this Spartan team.

For the Nittany Lions, outside their shocking upset against Wisconsin, Penn State has struggled against premier opponents. MSU seemed to have a good scheme to limit Kanye Clary in their first matchup, and I’d expect more of the same in this one.

KENPOM: 102

PREDICTION: MSU 80, PSU 69

If you’ve watched Michigan basketball this season, a clear difference in this version compared to those of the 2010’s (and even Juwan Howard's first season) is the abysmal defense. In the 2021 season, Michigan allowed, on average, 65.1 PPG, second-best in the conference. This season? 77 PPG … dead last.

The Wolverines once-suffocating defense, showcased by a 1-3-1 zone, is now merely a team suffocating on its own in-house drama, from staff sparing sessions, to tardy Econ homework. MSU’s first matchup with Michigan got off to an uneasy start as the Spartans trailed at half, but in the end had one of their best second halves of the season, winning 81-62, and giving Tom Izzo his 700th win.

I expect MSU to take care of business from start to finish on the road, in a game that may feature more green than maize at the Crisler center.

KENPOM: 91

PREDICTION: MSU 81, MICHIGAN 70

There are a lot of defensive similarities between Iowa and Michigan as both sit bottom wrung in defense for the conference, but at least Iowa boasts an offense averaging 84.4 points per game. Fran McCaffery must watch a ton of Iowa football, as over the past few years he has made it his mission to be the antithesis in all regards to the Iowa football ethos. Iowa basketball is fast-paced, high-scoring, and willing to let up on defense in the prospects of being a team that can win shoot-outs.

The three-headed offensive tandem of Tony Perkins (15.5 ppg), Ben Krikke (15 ppg), and Payton Sandfort (15ppg) have all taken turns being the Hawkeyes #1 scorer this season.

Sandfort leads the Big Ten in three-point shots made at 60, and is second in three-point percentage at 39.5%.

Iowa thus far has struggled away from home, going 2-5 on the road. If MSU can play this game at their own pace, I believe they’ll pull through.

KENPOM: 49

PREDICTION: MSU 77, IOWA 69

The last time MSU lost to Ohio State at home was over a decade ago during the ‘11-‘12 season, and one of the rare occasions where MSU dropped a game on senior night.

And boy was it a heartbreaker.

MSU still had a postgame celebration, as even with the loss they were Big Ten regular season champions. The celebration was lethargic, of course, but most of all it was fueled by the anxiety of necessary revenge. Izzo grabbed the microphone and addressed the crowd before they left to play in the Big Ten tournament, declaring “we’re going to go win our championship back.”

Izzo called his shot, as one week later MSU beat the Buckeyes in the Big Ten tournament final, 68-64.

For ‘23-‘24, Ohio State started off scorching earth, winning 12 of its first 14 games. If you watched closely, the scorching earth start was destined to come back to earth. (Does that metaphor work? Whatever.)

The Buckeyes have now dropped six of their last eight games, and sit in 13th place in the conference. Bruce Thornton averages 15.67 points per game on high volume and a low field goal percentage (40.9%). Outside of Big Ten three-point leader Jamison Battle (44% from three), the Buckeyes lack real outside threats. If Tyson Walker is able to clamp up Battle, I predict MSU will wrap up its 10th straight win versus the Buckeyes at the Breslin center.

KENPOM: 64

PREDICTION: MSU 70, OSU 59

Assuming the month of February goes exactly as I’ve prescribed, MSU would have a 19-9 record, with three games remaining before the Big Ten Tournament.

Realistically, Spartan fans could, at that point, expect to be in the hunt for anything from a 5-7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, depending on how they finish the regular season and Big Ten tourney play. 6-1 in the month of February is not unrealistic, as MSU may be favored in each of their seven games.

What it’ll take to finish the season strong is no mystery if you’ve paid attention.

Can MSU get productive minutes from the center position? Is Jaden Akins a knock-down shooter, actualizing his star potential? Or does his “star” stay dimly lit as a mere “what if?”

Is A.J Hoggard a great Izzo point guard? Is he, equally as important, a great leader?

February will prove to answer these questions, and be the defining month of this season. And if the Izzone wants to continue selling shirts with this slogan below…

... then the push to March starts now.

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