The Michigan State football team has reached the halfway point of the 2024 season, the first under head coach Jonathan Smith, and has a much-needed bye this week.
After a 3-0 start, including a big road win over conference foe Maryland, the Spartans have since dropped three-straight games and currently sit at 3-3 overall on the campaign, including 1-2 in Big Ten play. After the strong start, the losing streak has many fans flustered. But most reasonable fans were aware that year one of a rebuild was going to have its up and downs.
However, with six more games left on the schedule (and only three more wins needed to get to bowl eligibility for the first time since 2021), let's look at some of the takeaways from the first half of MSU's season.
The Spartans MUST protect the ball better in their next six games
It's a pretty obvious concept. Protect the ball, and win the turnover battle, and you're more likely to win a game. So far, giveaways are arguably what has been holding the Spartans back most this season.
Michigan State has put the ball on the ground 10 times, and lost six of those fumbles, which is tied for 123rd in the nation (only five teams in the FBS have lost more fumbles than the Spartans). Quarterback Aidan Chiles has thrown eight total interceptions this season, while also losing three fumbles. He has been seemingly improving with his decision-making, however, as he has only thrown one interception in the previous two games. But he has to learn how to hold onto the ball better, as fumbles continue to be an issue for him.
Chiles isn't alone with the fumbling, though. Tight end Jack Velling, wide receiver Montorie Foster Jr. and running back Kay'ron Lynch-Adams (on a kickoff return against Boston College) have all fumbled this year.
Michigan State is also minus-six (-6) in turnover margin this season, which ranks tied for 118th in the country.
With a 19-year-old quarterback starting for the first time, you're going to see some of those growing pains. That is to be expected. But if the Spartans want to finish the year strong and make a bowl game in year one of the new regime, the turnovers have to be cut down immediately. The previous two games certainly showed growth from Chiles when it comes to interceptions, but with stout defenses in Iowa and Michigan due up after the bye week, the Spartans will have to protect the ball moving forward. That is an absolute must.
Despite the losing streak, the team has shown progress from recent years
I think the most noticeable improvement from recent years has been the defense, which was dead last in the FBS in pass yards allowed in 2021 (ironically, the best season, record-wise, under head coach Mel Tucker). While the defense did improve marginally in certain areas in 2022 and 2023, the unit was still an issue and struggled in each year under Tucker/interim head coach Harlon Barnett and former defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton.
But through six games this season, the defense is clearly playing better. (Yes, even after two blowout losses) As of Friday morning, the Spartans rank 44th in the FBS in total defense (329.8 yards per game), 49th in passing defense (199 yards allowed per game), 60th in rushing defense (130.8 yards per game) and 46th in scoring defense (21 points allowed per game).
All of these numbers are significantly improved from where the Spartans finished in 2023 (389.3 total yards allowed per game, 237.8 passing yards allowed per game, 151.5 rushing yards allowed per game and 28.3 points allowed per game).
The Spartans also rank third in the Big Ten in tackles for loss with 39. At one point prior to their three-game losing skid, they were first in the conference in tackles for loss. MSU also currently ranks sixth in the conference in sacks with 15.
MSU has also been able to force a fair amount of turnovers. Seven of the Spartans' eight turnovers forced so far this season have been interceptions, and that is tied for third-most in the conference.
All of this is a testament to defensive coordinator/linebackers coach Joe Rossi, Smith and the rest of the staff.
Some of the defensive production has fallen off a bit in the past two games, but that will happen when you play Ohio State and Oregon, now both ranked in the top-three in the country, in back-to-back weeks. Overall, the first half of the season is a step forward from recent production, and if the team can continue to build on this step forward, the Spartans may be able to re-establish their identity and play their best years of football as a program in the future.
Losing is tough, but this was never going to be a contending year, and the future remains bright
I get it. As a fan or alumnus, you have faith in your team and want them to win right now every single year. The reality is it doesn't always work that way. Think back to this point one year ago.
Michigan State was three games into a six-game losing streak without its head coach. The program was reeling.
Now, a year later, Michigan State has some optimism, despite its losing streak. A promising young quarterback, who — while he has work to do — has shown lots of flashes of his potential, a defense taking a step forward from the previous few years, a staff with a track record of building up a program to find success and the possibility is still there for the program's first bowl game since the 2021 season.
Now, let's be frank. This team has issues. Oregon physically dominated Michigan State on both sides of the ball and it showed how much the Spartans are lacking in the trenches (injuries have not helped in that case). Offensively, MSU has not been able to establish the run. Defensively, the run defense has been solid for the most part, but Oregon was able to run the ball at will for much of the game. We've discussed the turnovers. Penalties have improved, but that was a big issue early on. The list goes on. But again, much of these growing pains should have been expected in year one of a rebuild. In the second half of the season, though, it's important to see less of them.
With all of that being said, the future trajectory of the program under Smith is still very much promising. Even in a lopsided final score against Ohio State, you saw the fight and competitiveness in this team — something that was never visible against OSU under the prior regime.
While the ultimate goal for any team in a given year is to compete for a championship, in year one of a new staff after a season marred by controversy and disappointing results, the Spartans are still on the right track.
While the Spartans aren't going to contend for a title, this year can set the foundation for what's to come, and as long as Michigan State can crack through and make a bowl game and get that valuable extra practice time, it's not time to throw in the towel.
