What a difference a few weeks can make. On Jan. 13, the Michigan State men's basketball team appeared to be dead in the water. The Spartans has just returned home following back-to-back losses at Northwestern and at Illinois. Michigan State had a record of just 9-7 overall and 1-4 in conference play.
Certain corners of the MSU fan base were ready to declare there was no chance that the NCAA Tournament streak would continue. All hope, it seemed, was lost. Despite the presence of a Hall-of-Fame head coach on the bench, an easier schedule to close the season, and a mountain of data suggesting the team was better than the record indicated, fans were starting to panic.
Fast forward to the waning days of February, and the situation looks much different. The Spartans have won eight of the last 10 games, including three wins on the road. Michigan State has moved from the bottom of the Big Ten standings and into a tie for third place. A 26th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance is now virtually assured.
With just three weeks remaining in the conference regular season, let's take a close look at where Michigan State stands and what comes next. As always, check out the odds and stats tracker for a full rundown of all the data that will be referenced below.
The State of the Big Ten Race
Table 1 below gives the updated enhanced Big Ten standings
The most notable updates in Table 1 are that Michigan State is up to +2 in the plus/minus rating and up to -1.04 in luck. Only Purdue and Illinois have a higher plus/minus and the Spartans' luck has improved from a low of -1.80 a few weeks ago. While Michigan State's luck is on the rise, these data suggest that the Spartans should be 10-5 instead of 9-6.
Table 2 below gives the updated Big Ten win matrix.
Figure 1 below gives a more visual representation of the Spartans' win distribution.
- QB
- TE
- OT
- TE
