Since the beginning of the men's basketball season, I have been providing periodic updates from the results of my Monte Carlo simulation of the full Big Ten season.

This simulation provides information such as the expected number of wins each team will earn by the end of the season, conference championship odds, strength of schedule and Big Ten Tournament odds.

On Tuesday night, Michigan State lost a hard-fought game to the No. 10-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini to fall to a conference record of just 1-4. Across the internet, Spartans fans began to hit the panic button.

But I am here to tell you that there is no need to panic, at least not yet. The primary reason that I enjoy tinkering with sports-related numbers is that they help me to put the results that I see on the hardwood (or gridiron) into context. They also help to remove the emotional component of the game.

Numbers are a tool that help us to understand the past and to predict the future. These numbers tell me that the Michigan State men's basketball team is going to be just fine.

Following the loss to Illinois, I reran the Big Ten simulation and found the fate of the Spartans to be virtually unchanged. My calculations suggest that Michigan State is still most likely to finish with a final record of 11-9, if not 12-8, in Big Ten play and safely in the NCAA Tournament (for those who are concerned).

The Spartans are currently sitting ranked No. 17 by Kenpom, No. 26 in the NET and No. 10 by Bart Torvik. These numbers tell us that Michigan State is a good team in solid shape nationally. My further analysis suggests that the early part of the schedule was deceptively difficult. It featured four of the seven toughest games on the Spartans' entire conference schedule, three of which were on the road.

My analysis also suggests that Michigan State has not been very lucky so far this year. Luck is likely to turn around before the end of the season.

Starting on Sunday, the Spartans' schedule gets much easier. Michigan State should be favored in every game except the road game at Wisconsin, with the home game against Illinois being a toss-up. My calculations say that the Spartans should go at least 8-4 in that stretch, which would get the Green and White back over .500 with three games remaining.

But that assumes that the Spartans' luck will continue to be poor. If the bad luck starts to reverse, Michigan State could easily go 10-2 in that stretch (or better) and find itself sitting at 11-6 (or better) as the calendar turns to March with some serious momentum.

Of course, this analysis depends on the idea that on a possession-by-possession basis, Michigan State continues to play as well as it has been been playing, on average, all season. It also assumes that the losses and lack of late game execution does not get into the players' heads.

If that happens, a few more frustrating road losses could crop up, and the Spartans will drift closer to .500 in conference play and toward the NCAA Tournament bubble. But for now, that is not the most likely outcome.

In my analysis of the Michigan State and Big Ten basketball season so far this year, I have focused primarily on the Big Ten race. The main input into my simulation and analysis is the set of possession-by-possession offensive and defensive efficiency that is compiled by Ken Pomeroy.

Efficiency data can be used for a lot more than just an analysis of the Big Ten race. Today, I would like to reintroduce one of my favorite college basketball visuals that provides a valuable perspective on where the current Michigan State team is located and where they might be headed.

Figure 1 below is what I refer to as the Kenpom efficiency scatter plot with data through Jan. 11.