A little over a week ago, I was seriously considering the odds that Michigan State could still sneak into the Big Ten race and a top-four seed in both the Big Ten and NCAA Tournament if a few things broke just right. The Spartans were cooking and riding a high. A typical late-February and March Tom Izzo run seemed imminent.

Then, the loss to Iowa happened. That put a large dent in the confidence of Spartan fans, but I was confident that the team would bounce back with a strong effort against Ohio State. But, the exact opposite happened.

Instead of sitting alone in third place with a solid shot at a Big Ten Tournament double bye, the Spartans have dropped to sixth place and are in danger of dropping even farther. Instead of things breaking just right, they have broken extremely bad.

What went wrong and what comes next? Once again, let's dig into the numbers to find out. As always, check out the Michigan State men's basketball Odds and Stats Tracker fot the full set of data that will be discussed below.

Figure 1 below provides a summary of the Four Factors in Michigan State's 60-57 home loss to Ohio State on Feb. 25.

The good news is that for the first time since beating Maryland on Feb. 3 and for just the second time in the last 11 games, the Spartans held an opponent to under 50% in effective field goal percentage. This was largely due to a strong first half on the defensive end.

The bad news is that Michigan State did not do anything else well, especially on offense. The Spartans did not shoot well and they lost the turnover, rebounding and free throw battles.

Ohio State got off three more shots from the field and seven more free throws. The Spartans' modest advantage in shooting percentage could not over come the deficit in scoring attempts.

Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 27.

With yet another home loss, the Spartans have dropped back to zero in the plus/minus rating. Michigan State has three road wins, but these wins are offset by the three home losses. If the Spartans plan to finish above .500 in Big Ten play, they are going to need to win a game on the road (at Purdue or at Indiana) and they will need to win the sole remaining home game against Northwestern.

Michigan State has also once again dropped into last place in the Big Ten in luck at -2.04. While I believe that it is true that some of the problems with this year's team, when "bad luck" persists for this long, it suggest that a team has deeper issues.

Had the Spartans beaten both Iowa and Ohio State as expected, Michigan State would be back to neutral (zero) in the luck metric. But the two loses suggest that this team lacks what can only be called "grit."

While they have shown the ability to win on the road and to close out games, the inconsistencies caused by a lack of focus, energy, and execution over the last two losses is a problem that has suddenly reemerged. The question now is when and if the Spartans will break out of this current funk.

Table 2 below shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.