3/7/2024 basketball Edit

Dr. Green and White Michigan State Basketball Odds and Stats Tracker

Michigan State's Coen Carr, center, Jaxon Kohler, left, Mady Sissoko and Tre Holloman, far right, react to Malik Hall's dunk against Minnesota. (Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Paul Fanson • Spartans Illustrated

Staff Writer

I am a 1998 graduate of MSU in Chemical Engineer and I earned a Ph.D. from Purdue in 2002. In my day job I work on advanced automotive technology, but I enjoy writing about sports analytics.

Throughout the Big Ten men's basketball season, I have conducted an analysis on the results of a series of simulations that provide various odds regarding the trajectory of the Michigan State men's basketball season and the Big Ten race as a whole for the 2023-2024 campaign.

In addition, I have provided additional analysis of Michigan State and the Big Ten race using Kenpom efficiency data compared to historical data and the set of statistics known as the "four factors of basketball success."

As the season goes on, the data changes almost daily. This post is meant to be a one-stop shop for the most updated data on the Big Ten race. In addition, this post will contain an explanation of how to read each table or figure. Analysis of the data will be done elsewhere. This post contains "just the facts."

Last Update: March 7, 2024

Percentage of Big Ten games completed: 94.3%

Number of remaining regular season outcomes: 128

Enhanced Big Ten Schedule

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of March 7, 2024.

Table 1 below is what I refer to as the enhanced Big Ten standings. It includes the current Big Ten record of each team in addition to four other pieces of data.

First, it contains the current Kenpom rankings and adjusted efficiency margins (AdjEM) for each team. Second, it contains the "plus/minus" for each team. The value is equal to the number of road wins minus the number of homes losses.

Third, Table 1 lists the current "luck" for each Big Ten team. I define luck as the difference between the actual number of wins and the expected number of wins so far, based on the retroactive spreads derived from the Kenpom adjusted efficiencies of each team.

Finally, the table contains the overall strength of schedule advantage/disadvantage relative to the conference average.

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