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Published Oct 25, 2023
Dr. Green and White Bad Betting Advice, Week Nine: Go For Broke
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Paul Fanson  •  Spartans Illustrated
Staff Writer
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@PaulFanson

In some college football seasons, there comes a time when it feels like giving up might be the correct answer. This is certainly an emotion felt by fans and I would guess that some players might be feeling that way as well. The Michigan State football team is suffering through a five-game losing streak. The Spartans just suffered their worst home loss in the history against their most bitter rival, Michigan, and the worst loss in the series overall since 1947.

But with five games left on the schedule, the show must go on. The list of "things left to play for" is starting to dwindle, but it is not yet empty. There is a good chance that Michigan State will suffer two more big loses to Ohio State and Penn State before the season is complete. However, there are also three very winnable games left on the schedule. One of those games is this Saturday afternoon.

The odds that Michigan State wins the six games needed to automatically qualify for a bowl game are vanishingly small (less than 1%). However, my most recent analysis suggests that the Spartans would have a strong chance (over 50%) to make a bowl game with a final record of 5-7.

However, all of that analysis goes out window with a loss this weekend. If the Spartans are to have any chance to earn a bowl bid and those valuable extra practices, it is time to go for broke this weekend against the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Getting off the mat is going to be difficult. But if the Spartans can muster the same effort that they showed against Iowa and Rutgers, but with fewer mistakes, a win is more than possible.

A win on the road against a solid Big Ten West team would be the first signs of positive momentum for Michigan State in over seven weeks. That positive momentum could easily carry over into the Spartans' final true home game of the year next weekend versus Nebraska. That game would suddenly also become much more winnable.

Michigan State's players and fans desperately need a feel-good win. The opportunity will be there this weekend in Minneapolis. It's now or never for the 2023 season. It is time to go all-in. It is time to go for broke.

MSU Prediction

Michigan State currently holds a 30-18 overall lead in the series with the Minnesota Golden Gophers, but the series has been one of streaks. Minnesota dominated the series over the first few decades of Big Ten play, winning 11 of the first 17 contests from 1950 to 1976.

The Spartans would respond by reeling off 17-straight wins over the next 20 years. Then, starting in 1998, Minnesota won six of the next eight games before the Spartans turned the tables in 2010 and won the next five games in a row. That streak was broken last year with the Gophers' 34-7 shellacking of the Spartans in East Lansing.

Interestingly, the Spartans have struggled with the Gophers relative to the Vegas line. Michigan State is just 3-12 against the spread versus Minnesota since 1997. This is concerning this weekend, as Michigan State opened as a seven-point underdog. Historically this gives the Spartans a 31% chance to get the upset win on the road.

As stated above, this is a win that Michigan State absolutely needs and absolutely can get. I would love to say that I am confident that the Spartans can get the job down. But I am not, and neither is my computer.

My computer expects that both the Minnesota winning streak and the streak of the Spartans not coving will continue. I am projecting a final score of Minnesota 27, Michigan State 18. Unfortunately, this seems like a plausible outcome.

This game will once again likely come back to the amount of emotional energy that the Spartans have in the tank. Unfortunately, I suspect the tank is close to empty. I fear that the team's collective will may be broken. If the Spartans can draw from some reserve of energy, passion and resolve, then I think that they will have a chance. But I will need to see that to believe it.

Big Ten Overview

Now it is time to go to a summary of the upcoming action in the Big Ten in Week Nine, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. See Table 1 below. Note that all rankings referenced below for each team are my computer's power rankings.

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