The Michigan State men’s basketball team had a 13-point lead against Iowa, 91-78, with 1:34 to go. The Spartans were shooting well all game, especially from 3-point distance, and it looked like MSU was going to secure a huge Big Ten road win. Ultimately, that would not be the case.
Iowa hit a barrage of 3-pointers in the final 1:30 of regulation, including four in the final 32 seconds, to send the game into overtime at 101-101. Eventually, the Hawkeyes shocked the Spartans, winning by a final score of 112-106.
So what exactly happened in that final minute-and-a-half of regulation? Below is a breakdown of each possession from that point until the end of the second half (marked by time remaining).
-1:34: Michigan State forward Malik Hall makes two free throws, MSU leads 91-78
-1:30: Iowa guard Payton Sandfort makes 3-pointer, MSU leads 91-81
-1:27: Michigan State guard A.J. Hoggard makes two free throws, MSU leads 93-81
-1:15 Iowa forward Kris Murray makes a second-chance layup and free throw, MSU leads 93-84
-1:06: Michigan State guard Jaden Akins makes two free throws, MSU leads 95-84
-0:55: Iowa’s Sandfort makes two free throws, MSU leads 95-86
-0:48: Michigan State’s Akins makes one of two free throws, MSU leads 96-86
-0:39: Iowa guard/forward Connor McCaffery makes a 3-pointer, MSU leads 96-89
-0:37: Michigan State’s Hall called for travel, turnover, MSU leads 96-89
-0:32: Iowa’s Murray makes a second-chance 3-pointer, MSU leads 96-92
-0:29: Michigan State’s Hoggard makes two free throws, MSU leads 98-92
-0:21: Iowa forward Patrick McCaffery makes a 3-pointer, MSU leads 98-95
-0:19: Michigan State’s Hoggard makes two free throws, MSU leads 100-95
-0:10: Iowa’s Connor McCaffery makes a 3-pointer, MSU leads 100-98
-0:10: Michigan State’s Hoggard makes one of two free throws, MSU leads 101-98
-0:03: Iowa’s Sandfort makes a 3-pointer, game tied 101-101
Iowa carried the momentum into overtime, and even though it seemed inconceivable just a few minutes prior, eventually won the game.
During that final 1:30 of regulation, Iowa had several different players make 3-point baskets: Payton Sandfort, Kris Murray, Connor McCaffery and Patrick McCaffery. It was an unbelievable display of late-game shooting with the pressure on.
According to kenpom.com, Michigan State had a 99.8% chance to win the game with about 90 seconds to play. While MSU deserves a lot of the blame, Iowa has to be given credit for the comeback and deserved the win. Outside of the unconscious 3-point shooting by Iowa, the Hawkeyes bothered the Spartans with a full-court press defense late in the game, got to the foul line, dominated on the offensive glass and limited turnovers throughout the game.
As mentioned, Iowa easily won on the offensive glass by a tally of 15-4, and this may be an underrated factor in the loss. Eight of those offensive rebounds came in the second half, including four in the final 1:49 of regulation, and two in overtime. This led to the Hawkeyes dominating the second-chance points, 29-4.
Of course, Michigan State didn’t miss many shots (32-for-54 overall and 11-for-15 from 3-point range), so the four second-chance points scored is not as alarming of a statistic as the 29 second-chance points allowed to Iowa. While Michigan State did win the defensive rebounding battle 26-19, the Hawkeyes had more total rebounds at 34-30.
Iowa guard Tony Perkins had a game-high five offensive rebounds, and a game-high nine total rebounds. Perkins came up big on second-chance buckets, getting a big put-back with 1:49 remaining in regulation, and doing the same thing a couple of times during the overtime period.
Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo experimented with small-ball lineups throughout the game, often using Hall as a center to try to create mismatches on offense, but it may have hurt the Spartans defensively and in the rebounding department.
Of course, while Iowa played unbelievably in the closing minutes, there were some defensive lapses on Michigan State’s side, and the biggest question of the day is should Izzo have elected to foul with MSU up by three points with under 10 seconds to play? Something Izzo said he didn’t even consider, which isn’t completely surprising given his normal philosophy on that matter, but the situation certainly warranted at least a thought this time around.
On a better note, there were a lot of positive developments in this game for Michigan State. Guard Tyson Walker scored a season-high 31 points, while fellow guard/wing Jaden Akins recorded a career-high 21 on his 20th birthday.
MSU also recorded its highest field goal percentage of the season (59.3%) and highest 3-point percentage (73.3%) by a wide margin. Additionally, the 31 free throws made were the most by the Spartans this season. And to Michigan State’s credit, the Spartans hit 12 out of 14 late-game free throws, but the two misses ended up being costly.
The 106 points scored were the highest points total of the year for Michigan State, with the previous high being 89 points against Buffalo on Dec. 30. Additionally, the 218 total points recorded between MSU and Iowa was the highest combined score in a Big Ten game this season, and the third-highest in the conference over the past 40 seasons.
This was the first time since 2005 versus Gonzaga in Hawaii that Michigan State scored over 100 points in a game and lost.
Still, this is a crushing defeat for the Spartans given that Michigan State was up double-digits with less than a minute remaining on the clock.
Michigan State will look to rebound from this incredibly tough loss on Tuesday at Nebraska. That game is scheduled to tip off at 9 p.m. and will broadcast on the Big Ten Network.
