Michigan State will travel for the first time this season and wanders into a tough road environment in Kinnick Stadium on Saturday night against Iowa.
The Spartans and the Hawkeyes will face off at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday and the game can be watched on NBC or streamed on Peacock.
To get a better idea of what kinds of challenges Iowa poses to Michigan State, and where the Spartans can find potential advantages against the Hawkeyes, Spartans Illustrated spoke to Adam Jacobi, the publisher of Go Iowa Awesome, which is Rivals' source for all things Hawkeyes.
Is Iowa's offense truly as bad as its perceived to be? Is this a typical stout Iowa defense? Now in his 25th year as head coach, is Kirk Ferentz still looked at positively from the fan base?
Adam answers these questions and more.
1. OK, so let's talk about Iowa's offense. Obviously, it continues to struggle, but have there been any noticeable improvements compared to 2022? How has quarterback Cade McNamara looked since transferring in from Michigan? Is there anything the unit does particularly well?
Adam: Iowa's offense looked capable at times during the first three weeks of the season (facing Utah State, Iowa State and Western Michigan) before an absolute crater of a performance at Penn State, finishing with 76 total yards of offense and four first downs, including no first downs and negative-12 yards of offense in the second and third quarters. The Nittany Lions are loaded with talent, but even Delaware had a more productive day against that defense.
The one noticeable improvement is that the offensive line isn't blowing assignments to the extent that it was last season. Going from "on-field liability with no alternative" to merely "inconsistent" is a step up, albeit not quite the one Iowa needs to be successful, especially as a new quarterback continues to acclimate himself with his receivers.
Cade McNamara not only missed 11-on-11 spring practice time as he rehabbed a knee injury, but he strained his quad shortly after being cleared for full practice, robbing him of two more weeks of full-go time with his offense. That excuse is rapidly wearing thin with Iowa fans, but it's still valid.
One point of real agita for Iowa fans is McNamara's reliance on tight ends; he and backup Deacon Hill have targeted wideouts 34* times in the first four games combined, and completed just 14 of those passes. Meanwhile, there are 180 wide receivers with at least 14 catches by themselves in the rest of FBS. This has been an Iowa staple for a while now, though — "TEU" being both a blessing and a curse — so only the neophytes put the blame at McNamara's feet here.
*that number is from Iowa's official stats; there are other sources that say 31 or 35, but there's no dispute it's in the single digits per game.
2. As far as the defense goes, it appears to be another typically stout Iowa team, ranking 36th in the FBS in yards allowed per game (313.8), eighth in yards per play allowed (4.21) and 26th in points per game allowed (17.0). What is the best way to attack Iowa's defense and who are some players to watch on that side of the ball?
Adam: There's not really a good way to attack Iowa's defense, unless teams can replicate Penn State's highly effective strategy of "have Drew Allar at quarterback." Noah Kim will be the second-best QB Iowa has faced thus far, but almost by default; Allar's the best in the Big Ten and the non-conference foes were young and dreadfully inexperienced. Western Michigan found room for a couple big plays early, but Iowa is back on a streak of about seven quarters without giving up a huge play.
Individually, CASH linebacker Sebastian Castro has a pick-six and has graded out extremely well thus far this season, and teams are still reluctant to throw at All-American cornerback Cooper DeJean. On the other side of the field, cornerback Jermari Harris continues to round back into form after missing 2022 (injury) and the first two games of 2023 (gambling). Harris was the source of WMU's big plays, and Penn State threw at him more often than DeJean, but he's getting there — and redshirt freshman Deshaun Lee was strong in Harris' lieu the first two weeks.
Up front, MIKE linebacker Jay Higgins leads Power-Five players in tackles this season, and transfer linebacker Nick Jackson (three-time All-ACC at Virginia) has been a quick study jumping into Iowa's defense. Sixth-year defensive tackle Noah Shannon was denied eligibility for the season for his own role in the gambling scandal, which has been a tough loss for him and the Iowa front, but the rest of the line is healthy and capable.
3. What is the general pulse of the fan base when it comes to head coach Kirk Ferentz? Obviously he's been at the helm for well over two decades and has accomplished a lot in Iowa City, but given the situation with the offense and the fact that he hasn't won a Big Ten Championship since 2004, does it feel like fans are ready to move on? Or is it more so just wanting to move on from Brian Ferentz as the offensive coordinator? Or none of the above?
Adam: Kirk Ferentz is heavily protected, and on a de facto lifetime contract with the University, to the chagrin of a vocal minority of fans. The offense has been stuck in a low gear even as the team has won on a fairly regular basis; Iowa hasn't finished worse than 8-5* since 2014, but when that offense is led by the coach's son (who, in order to comply with state law, must report directly to the athletic director), a baseline expectation of 8-plus wins annually is cold comfort for many when it feels like the ceiling isn't concurrently rising.
*Iowa went 6-2 in the weird COVID year of 2020, with two opponents cancelling to finish the season. Technically it's only six wins, but hard to make the case it's worse than 8-5.
Ultimately, Kirk Ferentz is still the dean of FBS coaches, and if the season continues anemically on offense, the administration is contractually obligated to end Brian Ferentz's contract. So the situation is designed to resolve itself one way or the other, although there's also little confidence that in that scenario, the next OC would find himself allowed to run a more dynamic offense.
4. Going into the 2023 season, what were your expectations for the Hawkeyes and why? Four games into the campaign, would you say those expectations remain the same, have gotten more optimistic or have gotten more pessimistic? What do you think has to happen for Iowa to get a win over Michigan State on Saturday night?
Adam: I predicted an eight- or nine-win season out of Iowa coming into the year, and there's been little to dissuade me there thus far. The rest of the Big Ten West looks as grim as expected through four games, and the Hawkeye defense hasn't taken the step back many feared with the losses of several playmakers. Right now, the mood in town is more pessimistic, but getting a 31-0 thumping on national television a few days ago will do that.
If Iowa wants a win on Saturday, it's going to need (acting head coach) Harlon Barnett and (associate head coach) Mark Dantonio to fix as few problems as possible on Sparty's sidelines, while getting a bit of a breakthrough in execution and consistency from its offense. If the Hawkeye O-line can create space between the tackles for running back Leshon Williams to get loose (top-two backs Kaleb Johnson and Jaz Patterson are both still out with ankle injuries, but not gone for the year), the offense won't need as much of a quantum leap from the passing game from one Saturday to the next.
5. With a potential season-ending injury to tight end Luke Lachey a couple of weeks ago, and seven players listed at "out" last week against Penn State, how healthy is Iowa entering Saturday's game? Are there any players expected to step up to fill the void? Overall, which players do you see making the biggest impact this week?
Adam: Of those seven names, only Johnson, Patterson and Lachey are expected contributors, and Iowa's got enough depth at those positions that the sting isn't as severe as last season, when only one scholarship receiver was healthy for Week One and the offensive line was just putting warm bodies on the front-five during the Big Ten portion of the season. As Ferentz said in a press conference last week, the tight end room is better with Lachey, but there's still four guys there the coaches trust. Iowa also got through the Penn State game relatively unscathed, so unless there's bad news in practice, the injury list should look virtually identical this Saturday.
McNamara and tight end Erick All will likely be the two biggest focal points on offense, for better or worse; MSU fans undoubtedly know both well by now (as former Michigan players). Tight ends Addison Ostrenga and Steven Stilianos have earned the coaches' trust too, so the passing game isn't quite one-dimensional enough to just double All and call it a day, but most opponents have not found it difficult to keep Iowa's receivers from getting open. Look for Higgins and Jackson to lead the team in tackles on defense once again, and sixth-year defensive end Joe Evans will be eager to start turning his passer hurries back into sacks again this year.
6. What is your final score prediction?
Adam: From what I've seen, Michigan State's still struggling on defense enough that Iowa shouldn't find itself held to less offense than the length of a football field (or even a touchdown drive starting at the 20-yard line) for the game. But Iowa hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt on its competency yet, so I'm expecting another low-scoring game, as is Vegas as the over/under sits somewhere in the mid-30s yet again.
If Sparty's letting guys get open downfield again, I'll say 27-10 Iowa; if the Hawkeye offense still can't get out of its own way, we're probably looking at something closer to 16-13 Iowa, something befitting the slogs Ferentz and Dantonio always seemed to find themselves in.
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