The Spartans enter Saturday's contest at 19-5 overall and 10-3 in the Big Ten. The Fighting Illini sit at 17-8 overall and 9-6 in conference play.

Evan Miya's computer rankings had Illinois as the No.11 team the first time these two teams met, and they have dropped to No.18 in the country, while MSU has fallen from No.13 to No.17 since then.

As a team, Illinois shoots an average 45.1% from the field to just 39.9% for their opponents while making, on average, 9.5 three-point shots compared to 6.2 for their opponents.

The Illini shoot 75.9% from the free throw line and are an excellent rebounding team, averaging 11.4 more than their opponents. They also average 14.9 assists per game and 4.3 blocked shots per game.

Their two mild weaknesses are that they commit slightly more turnovers, 11.9 to 9.6 per game, and their opponents also get more steals, 6.3 to 4.5 per game.

MSU has had problems with the zone defense, starting with USC and continuing through Indiana. The good news is - despite only working on the zone for about five minutes in any one practice time - they got good shots against the Hoosier zone. The bad news is they shot 4 for 23 and at least 16 of those shots were open, good looks.

It was reminiscent of the Syracuse game in the NCAA tournament in 2018; observers were outraged that Jaren Jackson only played for 15 minutes so Ben Carter could dish from a high post position to shooters. The problem was not Carter's passing. The problem was that MSU shot a woeful 8 of 37 overall from 3-point land (Bridges, 3-12; Winston, 3-11; Langford, 1-7; McQuaid, 1-7).

Another issue for the Spartans is the inability to leave Fidler in the high post too long to attack a zone because of his defense (the same goes for Booker). Fidler can get inside the zone like last game, but he has struggled from 3-point land at 17%. Booker (21%) and Akins (29.3%) aren't much better on the year. Fears is not a perimeter shooter despite his 42.1% average as he has made only eight all year.

MSU's best options are Jase Richardson (38.6%) and Tre Hollomon (32.6%), but they combined to shoot 1-10 from 3FG vs. Indiana. In the end, one cure for the zone funk is to make shots.

However, Tom Izzo also took some blame, and he deserved it. Granted, you have to make shots, but his team was not well prepared, especially after the zone fiasco vs. USC. Did he not think they would see the zone again? Hopefully, the Spartans as a whole, will have a better approach.

Head coach Brad Underwood has a career record of 252-115, a 68.7% winning percentage. He played for legendary Jack Hartman, K-State's all-time winningest coach, and worked his way up the ranks, having two stints in the JUCO ranks. He spent three years at Stephen F Austin and had one year at Oklahoma State before landing in Illinois, where he is in his eighth year with a record of 160-96 at Illinois. He sports an overall record of 269–123.

Kasparas Jakucionis is a 6'6" freshman guard from Lithuania who averaged 19.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.6 steals for FC Barcelona. This season at Illinois, he averages 16.6 points per game on 47.5% shooting and 5.6 rebounds. He is also an outstanding 3-point shooter, hitting 35%. He shoots 83.3% from the free-throw line and has the most attempts on the team with 120. He also leads Illinois in assists with 119 and is second in steals with 22. He missed games vs. Penn State (1/8) and USC (1/11) with a left forearm injury.

Tomislav Ivisic is a 7'1" sophomore from Croatia. His twin brother, Zvonimir, plays at Arkansas. For Illinois, Ivisic averages 13.1 points per game (second-best on the team), has a team-leading 8.5 rebounds, and shoots 51.9% from the floor. He makes 37.1% of his three-point attempts (third-best on the team), and is a 76.3% FT shooter. He has a 44 assists to 34 turnovers ratio and is second on the team in blocks with 25.

Will Riley is a 6'8" freshman forward from Canada and was the No. 11 prospect, according to Rivals. Riley averaged 21.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.5 assists during EYBL action. At Illinois this year, he averages 11.9 points on 41.6% shooting, 3.8 rebounds, and 33.3% from 3FG. He is a 70.9% FT shooter with 51 assists to 28 turnovers on the year.

Kylan Boswell, a 6'2" transfer guard from the University of Arizona - where he played in 36 games, making 35 starts and registering 130 assists to just 61 turnovers, the third-best ratio in the Pac-12 - is Illinois' 4th leading scorer at 11.8 points per game (38.5%) but only shoots 23.5% from three-point land. Boswell is a good FT shooter at 80.5% and averages 5.2 rebounds with an 84 assists to 54 turnovers ratio for the year. He leads the team with 30 steals.

A 6'7" guard from Dallas, Tre White played prep ball in California and transferred in from Louisville, where he averaged 12.3 points per game, 5.5 rebounds, shooting 45.6% from the floor. Before that, he was at USC, where he made the Pac-12 All-Freshman team with 9.0 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. This year at Illinois, White is their 5th leading scorer at 9.3 points per game on 47.4% shooting; he currently averages 5.3 rebounds per game. He is the team's second-best FT shooter at 82.9%.

Ben Humrichous is a 6'9" grad student born in Indiana. He played at Evansville, where he scored 14.7 points per game, ranking second in rebounding at 4.7 boards and shot 41.4% from 3-point range (53-128). At Illinois this year, he averages 8.6 points per game on 39.6% shooting and averages 3.9 rebounds, shooting 35.5% from 3-point land with 141 attempts, the most on the team. He has made a 3-pointer in every Big Ten game.

Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, a 6'1" sophomore guard born in Indiana, finished high school ball in North Carolina. Last year at Illinois, he averaged 2.4 points as a freshman. This year, he has improved those numbers with 7.3 points per game on 45.5% shooting and 26.8% from 3-point land.

Morez Johnson Jr. is a 6'9" 255 pound, well-built freshman from Illinois and the nation's consensus top 30 recruit. He was voted Mr. Basketball in Illinois with 20 points, 15 rebounds, four assists, and three steals per game as a high school senior. This season at Illinois, he averages 6.8 points on 66.6% shooting and 6.6 rebounds, 2nd on the team. He shoots 59.1% from the FT line. He is not a perimeter threat.

Points per Game

- Illinois 85.1

- Opponents 71.3

FG percentage

- Illinois .451

- Opponents .399

FG per Game

- Illinois 29.0

- Opponents 26.2

3PT percentage

- Illinois .316

- Opponents .311

3PT per Game

- Illinois 9.5

- Opponents 6.2

Free throw percentage

- Illinois .759

- Opponents .711

Free throws per game

- Illinois 17.5

- Opponents 12.7

Rebounding per Game

- Illinois 44.6

- Opponents 33.2

Assists per Game

- Illinois 14.9

- Opponents 11.4

Turnovers per Game

- Illinois 11.9

- Opponents 9.6

Points Off Turnovers

- Illinois 10.3

- Opponents 12.1

Steals per Game

- Illinois 4.5

- Opponents 6.3

Blocks per Game

- Illinois 4.3

- Opponents 3.1

Alabama

Seven more shots (+7 FGs) were made by Alabama, who shot 52% from the floor compared to 45% for Illinois. 'Bama had a 23-7 assist-to-turnover ratio, forcing Illinois into 13 turnovers.

Northwestern

Neither team shot well, and the game went to overtime. Illinois shot just 37.3%. Northwestern had a 13-4 assist-to-turnover ratio, while Illinois had 11 turnovers.

Tennessee

Illinois went cold with 29.4% shooting from the game, although the Vols only shot 32.3% themselves. It was also a game that featured 64 free throws. Illinois had 11 turnovers and made just four 3-point shots.

USC

Illinois was short-handed in a ten-point loss to USC as Kasparas Jakucionis was out with an injured forearm. The Trojans shot 52.3% from the field and held the Illini to 37.1%. Both teams were sloppy, with 14 turnovers by USC and 15 by Illinois. USC also had +11 Field goals made.

Maryland

Illinois was minus 13 FGs made and had nine more turnovers than Maryland.

Rutgers

Rutgers had a 28-13 made free throw advantage.

Illinois has had problems with:

- Turnovers: Illinois turns it over in losses, and opponents value the basketball in those same games.

- FG% defense: Can the Spartans play good defense and force a guy like Boswell to take more shots than he should?

- Free Throws: Rutgers was able to attack and get to the line.

- Kasparas Jakucionis is a foul machine; can the Spartans put him in foul trouble once again?

Illinois and MSU are two of the best rebounding teams in the Big Ten, and the team that boards well will have a key advantage.

Turnovers also plague the Spartans and the Illini in critical situations.

Independently, the Illini has been putting teams like Rutgers on the free throw line, while MSU has been hurt by zone defenses, most notably against USC and Indiana.

Last time around, Jakucionis got into foul trouble, which hurt the Illini cause and helped contribute to a Spartan victory.

While I expect the Spartans to play better, I will give the nod to the home team.

ILLINOIS 80, MSU 75

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