The 2024 edition of the Michigan State versus Michigan game is an unranked matchup. It's stashed away on Big Ten Network. Perhaps it's not the most storied Paul Bunyan Trophy contest, but I'll be damned if I ever said this isn’t a big one.
This matchup seems like an all upside game for MSU. Win in Ann Arbor, and the Spartans have closed the gap with the Wolverines just one year after a 49-0 smackdown in East Lansing – this would an unquestionably huge victory in year one of a rebuild under head coach Jonathan Smith. Lose, and while it would sting, it doesn’t change the big picture of the season or destroy anything that’s been built. The future is still bright for MSU.
So, it’s a house money rivalry game that is very much in reach for the Spartans.
(Oh and speaking of money, HOLY SMOKES we are undefeated in Best Bets so far).
So, with that all said, let's get into the 3-2-1 preview this week for Michigan State versus Michigan.
3 Things We Want To See
Seven points right off the scripted plays (and beyond)
It’s a twofold reason as to why a hot start for Michigan State is crucial on Saturday night.
The first is simple – it’s nice to play with a lead. Duh. But, it's incredibly nice when it's against an offense that is limited in the passing game and trying to play from behind all night.
The second reason can’t be quantified with any stats, Pro Football Focus numbers or X’s and O’s talk – it is the state of the two locker rooms.
While identical in records, the morale on both ends could not be further apart.
One team is imploding like a dying star after winning a national title, while seeing one of three inept quarterbacks take the field. Michigan responded out of the bye week with a flat performance against Illinois, scoring just one touchdown. Now, making a bowl game isn’t even a guarantee. This isn’t remotely close to the season the Wolverines wanted or are accustomed to, and there is no real world where the mood is sunshine and rainbows over there.
The other team – the Michigan State Spartans – got a much-needed morale-boosting win over Iowa coming out of the bye week. The Spartans have a quarterback that has been improving on a weekly basis in Aidan Chiles. They’ve seen adversity, and they’ve largely responded to those moments this season.
MSU has a chance to break whatever is left of U-M's spirit early, get the boo birds out in that stadium and grab the game in the first few drives.
Copy and paste from last week
Two of our big talking points last week – tackling and utilizing Aidan Chiles in the run game – weren’t just done, they were done to near perfection.
On the defensive side, MSU was coming off two games against current top-five opponents in Ohio State and Oregon with a whopping 35 combined missed tackles. Last week, against one of the best running backs in the nation, the Spartans missed just three tackles. That was crucial to not letting Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson do what he does best – make something out of absolutely nothing. Having MSU miss just three tackles all game is a lot to ask for again, but it has to be in the single digits again.
Now for Chiles and his legs, we made it a whole to-do to get this young man out on more designed runs. After being reluctant to do so to start the season, Chiles has gotten 86 yards on nine designed runs over the last two games combined. It adds another blocker to the mix and keeps the defense honest on run-pass-option (RPO) plays. Against another strong run-stopping team in Michigan, MSU will have to rely on Chiles on the ground yet again.
Finish the drives with six points
If there was any annoyance to take out of last week’s game, it’s the fact that MSU got inside Iowa’s 30-yard line and kicked five field goals in those instances. Kicker Jonathan Kim made a single-game program record six field goals in total. I mean, this is the epitome of nit-picking since it obviously still won the game for the Spartans last week, but converting on red zone trips with touchdowns will be paramount here.
Michigan’s defense has been “ehh” in the red zone, allowing 15 touchdowns on 27 opponent trips (that’s a 55.5% rate, good for 49th in the country).
The offense took massive baby steps last week (if that even makes sense). The next step is to get the most out of those trips and convert them into touchdowns.
2 Key Stats
91
Get ready for this one – Chase Glasser keyed me in on this one after a recent recording of Locked On Spartans. When he said this stat I thought there was no way it could be true, but here it is.
Guys…Nick Marsh has 91 more receiving yards than all of Michigan’s wide receivers combined. Yes, Michigan State true freshman wide receiver Nick Marsh has out-gained Michigan’s seven stat-recording receivers by himself. And yes, that’s with Marsh missing a game-and-a-half due to injury.
That speaks to two things – how great Marsh has been and how dire the situation is in that wide receiver room over there. Of course, Michigan still has weapons in the pass game like potential first-round NFL Draft pick tight end Colston Loveland and perhaps running back Donovan Edwards out of the backfield. But, LORDY, is that some dire straits for the Michigan wide receivers room.
74.1 percent
That’s Aidan Chiles completion percentage against the blitz the last three games, according to Pro Football Focus.
Over its last two games, Michigan’s defense has poured on the blitz on over 50% of dropbacks. When fans and pundits tell you U-M defensive coordinator Wink Martindale loves himself a blitz, they are not kidding.
The trends also suggest Chiles has been comfortable against the blitz, and if Michigan cornerback Will Johnson and his solid press coverage skills are absent (he is currently considered to be "questionable" for Saturday's game), that could make throwing on those hot routes even more cozy.
1 Best Bet
I haven’t seen line movement like this since…I can’t even remember actually. And I’m not even talking about how this was a -24 spread in the summer in favor of Michigan and now is sitting at -3.5.
I’m talking about how this line reopened over the weekend at Michigan -6.5. It has plummeted despite getting roughly 60% of bets and taking in 70% of money, according to SportsBettingDime.com. Sharps are loving the Spartans and Las Vegas is on its knees BEGGING people to take the Wolverines.
This only means one thing. And I really don’t want to set ourselves up for hope only to be crushed on Saturday. However…everything on the field, off the field and in the sportsbooks says you should take MSU here. So, HERE WE GO. TAKE US HOME, JONATHAN SMITH.
Pick: MSU +3.5
Record: 6-0
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