Michigan State has three games left in the 2024 regular season. Win two of those, and the Spartans reach their first bowl game since 2021. It's a chance to usher head coach Jonathan Smith and the football program into year two on a high note.
First up in this three-game stretch, the Spartans travel to Champaign to take on Illinois in the Fighting Illini's home finale and senior day game.
Both teams are coming off of a bye week.
The Illini bring a diverse rushing attack, with four players having over 50 rushes, and as a team total 314 carries, for 1,282 yards (4.1 YPC) and 10 touchdowns. However, lead running back Kaden Feagin had hip surgery in October, which ended his season. Illinois now relies on running backs Josh McCray, Aidan Laughery and Ca'Lil Valentine.
In the passing game, the Illini are led by quarterback Luke Altmyer and wide receivers Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin.
Defensively for Illinois, starting middle linebacker and leading tackler Dylan Rosiek suffered a lower leg fracture against Minnesota on Nov. 2, which ended his season.
For the Spartans, they’ll need to bounce back after a come-to-earth beating two weekends ago at the hands of the Indiana Hoosiers, 47-10.
Despite an injury late in the game, quarterback Aidan Chiles is expected to start on Saturday against the Illini. His first year at the helm in East Lansing has been rocky, impressing with throws only a handful of quarterbacks can make, while also making mistakes that have resulted in many turnovers and have left fans scratching their heads. His continued development and chemistry with star freshman wide receiver Nick Marsh is something fans and staff are excited about.
Earlier this week, Marsh spoke about how the chemistry between Chiles and has grown throughout the season.
"It’s tremendous — next season and throughout the rest of this season, it's just getting better," Marsh said about his connection with Chiles.
The Illini have only let one wide receiver this year exceed 100 receiving yards in a game (Oregon's Tez Johnson), so Marsh and Chiles will have their work cut out to make Marsh the second player to accomplish that feat.
Michigan State also comes into the game with a few other injury concerns outside of Chiles, as rush end Anthony Jones Jr. and defensive backs Charles Brantley and Malik Spencer each left the Indiana game as well. Wide receiver Jaron Glover has also been dealing with injury issues. Earlier this weekend, Smith noted that he was "optimistic" Jones would play, but the statues of Brantley, Spencer and Glover entering Saturday's game are unclear.
All in all, you have a team in Illinois coming into this season viewed as a fringe bowl team pushing to bounce back from consecutive losses and boost their bowl stock. And then you have a Spartan squad that is also riding a two-game losing streak and looking for a road win in pursuit of their own bowl aspirations.
Let's take a closer look at this Saturday's matchup.
2024 statistics review:
Michigan State:
-Record: 4-5 (2-4 in Big Ten)
-Offense: 345.8 YPG, 228.0 passing YPG, 117.8 rushing YPG
-Defense: 323.6 YPG, 194.78 passing YPG, 128.8 rushing YPG
-Third-down offense: 41.38%
-Third-down defense: 42.37%
-Points per game: 19.78
-Points per game allowed: 24.11
Illinois:
-Record: 6-3 (3-3 Big Ten)
-Offense: 356.0 YPG, 213.56 passing YPG, 142.4 rushing YPG
-Defense: 366.3 YPG, 211.44 passing YPG, 86.1 rushing YPG
-Third-down offense: 43.24%
-Third-down defense: 45.22%
-Points per game: 25.89
-Points per game allowed: 21.11
SERIES INFORMATION
-All-Time Series: MSU leads, 27-19-2
-Series in Champaign: MSU leads, 14-10-1
-Last Meeting: MSU 23, No. 14 Illinois 15 (Nov. 5, 2022 in Champaign)
-Current Series Streak: Michigan State has a one-game winning streak
Uniform Watch
Michigan State will wear all white uniforms with green numbering and letter, and the "Gruff Sparty" logo on the helmets.
For more on Michigan State's uniforms this week, read here.
There is no word as of press time regarding which home uniforms Illinois will wear on Saturday.
Key Matchups:
Need More Pressure
Michigan State has one sack in Big Ten play and has not recorded a sack in a game since the loss to Boston College on Sept. 21 (four) — this will be the second week where “needing more pressure” will be a key factor in this game preview and for obvious reasons.
Illinois is a team that sits at a Big Ten worst 3.11 sacks given up per game. So if there is a week to “get right” and get in the backfield — this is it.
Michigan State co-special teams coordinator/rush ends coach Chad Wilt spoke earlier this week about the pass rush issues, and believes the Spartans will bring a strong game plan to Champaign to try to remedy that.
The Illini offensive line has struggled this season, and starting quarterback Luke Altmyer — who started off the season red hot — has struggled in recent weeks under pressure, with game lines of — 17-of-35 passing for 161 yards and two interceptions against Oregon, and 20-for-33 for one touchdown and 226 yards in an eventual 25-17 loss to Minnesota.
While MSU is collectively having its best defensive season in recent years, currently ranked 31st in total defense in the nation (323.6 yards per game allowed), the inability to bring down the quarterback, or cause discomfort in the pocket, has been a glaring and consequential weakness over the past five games.
Rekindle momentum on the ground
Just as the MSU rushing attack seems to be finding its footing, it reverted to its early season struggles against Indiana. In the two weeks prior, MSU posted ground games of 40 rushes for 212 yards (5.5 yards per carry) against Iowa, and 42 rushes for 163 yards (3.9 yards per carry) against Michigan. Against Indiana, the Spartans mustered just 37 yards on 24 carries if you take out the sack numbers (the net rushing yards against the Hoosiers with the quarterback sacks included was minus-36 yards).
Now let’s assume MSU’s abysmal rush attack against Indiana was a one-off — can MSU control the line of scrimmage, and create space for running backs Kay'ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter to have a productive afternoon? Illinois sure has been trending in that direction of late.
Illinois has given up an average of 194 rushing yards on over its last five games. Not coincidentally, all three of the team's losses and a near-upset loss to Purdue have occurred over these last five games. If the Spartans can get the run game back on track, it should open up opportunities for Chiles to breathe, and for the offense to flex its potential we’ve seen glimpses of this season.
Luke Altmyer vs Aidan Chiles
Of course, quarterbacks don't directly face each other, but Altmyer is a shining example of the growth a quarterback can make in just one season. Altmyer has already exceeded his 2023 passing total of 1,883 with 1,893 and has 16 passing touchdowns to just three interceptions in nine games. He threw only 13 touchdowns last year, and 10 interceptions.
A lot of work is ahead for Chiles and tons of crucial experience to gain this season. But with an entire offseason and season stashed in the memory bank, Chiles and Spartan fans should be excited about where his ceiling truly could be.
But for Saturday, Chiles will need to bridge the gap and mitigate the back-breaking mistakes, because Altmyer barely makes any.
If the Spartans can win the turnover battle, which they’ve only done once in Big Ten play (against Iowa, plus-one), they have a great chance to leave Champaign one win away from a bowl berth.
Game Info:
-Date/Kickoff Time: Saturday, Nov. 16, 2:35 p.m. Eastern Time
-TV: FS1
-Streaming/Mobile: FOX Sports app
-Announcers: Alex Faust (play-by-play), Robert Smith (analyst)
-Radio: Spartan Media Network
-Play-by-Play: George Blaha
-Analyst: Jason Strayhorn
-Sidelines: Jehuu Caulcrick
-Broadcast Host: Dalton Shetler
-Location: Champaign, Illinois
-Stadium: Memorial Stadium (60,670)
-Weather Expectations: 56 degrees at kickoff, wind 4-12 miles per hour, gusts up to 27 miles per hour
Final Thoughts:
The version of this Michigan State team that comes out first drive of games or at half, often called the “scripted drives," needs to be the team Spartan fans see more often the rest of this season. After nine games and a lot bumps and bruises, finding a core competency and identity feels like a “need” more than a “want.” If you’d like to parlay this season into an example of a budding culture being shaped in East Lansing, or at least if you’d like others (recruits) to believe so, establishing "identity" is a non-negotiable.
This is a very solid Illinois team, which is middle of the pack in most statisitical categories and doesn’t do any one thing particularly great, but minimizes errors, and plays “boring” but effective football under head coach Bret Bielema. That’s why the Illini are 6-3 and been one of the more surprising success stories in the conference, at least early on in the 2024 campaign.
The last time we saw the Spartans play, the offensive line arguably had its worst showing to date against Indiana — the grass still wedged in backup quarterback Tommy Schuster's helmet is evidence of that, along with his -44 rushing yards due to sacks.
It’s no secret that the straw that mixes the drink is the Spartans' 19-year-old quarterback Aidan Chiles, and if he can LIMIT the turnovers, make a few great throws and a lot of smart and accurate ones, the Spartans have a great shot to win this matchup.
But like all things in life, we shall see.
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