On Thursday night, the Michigan State Spartans sailed to another double-digit win over Big Ten newcomers, the Washington Huskies, improving the Spartans' record to 13-2 overall and 4-0 in the Big Ten. As a result, MSU has rejoined the Michigan Wolverines in a two-way tie at the top of the conference.

In other league action, it was a very good week for Illinois, Oregon, Wisconsin, and especially Michigan. All four teams picked up big wins, including a 39-point win by Illinois over Penn State, a 19-point win by Michigan at UCLA, a 31-point win by Wisconsin over Iowa, and a two-point victory by Oregon at Ohio State.

On the other hand, UCLA picked up back-to-back losses at Nebraska and versus Michigan. As a result, the updated Big Ten leaderboard is shown below in Table 1.

Michigan now has the best odds to win the conference at 45% with the Fighting Illini checking in at 34% and in second place. Michigan State is holding steady with the third best odds at 24%. The only other team with conference odds over 10% is Purdue, with the Boilermakers in fourth place at 15%.

Oregon (4%), Wisconsin (4%), UCLA (2.5%), and maybe Maryland (1%) are potential long-shot title contenders. The remaining 10 conference teams all have less than a 1% chance to win or share the Big Ten title.

With two teams still undefeated in conference play, the odds are now 54% that a record of 17-3 or better will be needed to claim a regular season Big Ten title.

The Spartans are currently expected to win 13.95 conference games. This is the third best value behind Michigan (15.18) and Illinois (14.73) but ahead of Purdue (13.51), Oregon (12.23) and Wisconsin (11.86).

If all of the currently projected favorites were to win all 140 remaining Big Ten games, Michigan (18-2) would win the conference and earn the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Illinois (17-3) would get the No. 2 seed, Michigan State (16-4) would earn the No. 3 seed and Purdue (15-5) would win get the No. 4 seed.

So far this season, I have provided a few quick updates on the prospects for the Michigan State men's basketball team using predictive metrics and simulation to estimate how the full Big Ten season is likely to play out.

Today, I would like to reintroduce a concept that will help us to understand more about the 2024-25 Michigan State Spartans. That concept is referred to as the "four factors" of basketball success.

The Four Factors have been discussed in great detail elsewhere, including on this site. Briefly the four factors on both offense and defense are:

1. Effective field goal percentage (eFGPct)

2. Turnover percentage (TOPct)

3. Offensive rebounding percentage (ORPct)

4. Free-throw rate (FTRate)

Basically, the four factors account for how well a team shoots or defends shots (eFGPct), the ability of a team to create (or lose) shots opportunities (TOPct and ORPct), and the ability of a team to score or avoid points from the free throw line (FTRate).

Let's first compare the 18 Big Ten teams based on the four factors. Table 1 below gives the adjusted Kenpom offensive efficiency and performance in the four factors on offence for each team.

The teams are list in order of overall Kenpom efficiency margin, which is typically an accurate estimation of points spreads on a neutral court. Michigan State is currently the third highest ranked Big Ten team in this system.

Offensively, the Spartans are in the middle of pack and are ranked No. 8 in total offensive efficiency. Interestingly, Michigan State rank towards the bottom in both shooting (No. 13) and in turnovers (No. 17), but are excelling in offensive rebounding (No. 2) and in free throw rate (No. 4).

Note that the Spartans' poor shooting numbers from the field are due almost exclusively to terrible three-point shooting (No. 339 nationally). As a team, Michigan State is ranked No. 27 in two-point shooting, which is good for third place in the conference behind Michigan (No. 1) and Iowa (No. 11).

Table 1 gives snapshot of the various offensive profiles for teams in the Big Ten. Currently, Purdue has statistically the best offense in league due to strong shooting and a high free throw rate, but the Boilermakers are below average in turnovers and in offensive rebounding.

Wisconsin's second-ranked offense seems predicated on not turning the ball over coupled with mediocre shooting. Michigan is shooting the lights out from the field and is rebounding well offensively, but the Wolverines are struggling with turnovers and with getting to the free throw line.

Illinois is just slightly above average in shooting, rebounding, and drawing fouls but are the best offensive rebounding team in the conference. The Iowa Hawkeyes avoid turnovers and are shooting really well, but they are dead last in both rebounding and drawing fouls.

Table 2 below provides the same analysis, but on the defensive side of the ball.