So far in this year's math-driven college football preview, we have reviewed the results from 2023, taken a close look at the schedule for the Michigan State Spartans, and analyzed several scenarios in the Big Ten race.
In this year's new 12-team College Football Playoff, the four highest-ranked conference champions will all earn a first-round bye. While not guaranteed, the eventual Big Ten champion will most likely earn one of those byes. The other three byes are expected to go to the champions of the SEC, the Big 12 and the ACC.
In today's installment, let's take a quick look at the races in those three other conferences and make some predictions as to which teams automatically advance to the quarterfinal round of the new playoff.
SEC Overview and Prediction
Similar to the analysis done for the Big Ten, Table 1 below shows the detailed results of my preseason simulation of the SEC race, including the consensus preseason rank of each team, two sets of projected final records, strength of schedule data, and the odds for each team to make and win the SEC Championship Game and to make and win the new 12-team playoff.
Table 1 shows that there are five consensus preseason top-10 teams (No. 1 Georgia, No. 4 Texas, No. 5 Alabama, No. 7 Mississippi and No. 10 Missouri) and four additional SEC teams ranked between No. 12 and No. 16 (No. 12 Oklahoma, No. 13 LSU, No. 15 Tennessee and No. 16 Texas A&M).
The simulation result says that there is a 69% chance that one of the five top-10 teams will win the SEC title and a 25% chance that one of other top-20 teams wins the conference. But which two teams will ultimately play for the SEC crown?
According to the Table 1 above, preseason No. 1 Georgia does have the best overall odds to win the SEC, but the other data in the table paints a more complicated picture. Texas has slightly better odds to reach the SEC Championship Game (32% to 28%). In addition, Alabama (25%) and Mississippi (25%) are just a few percentage points behind.
A closer look at the strength of schedule data in Table 1 helps to explain what is going on. Similar to the challenges that Ohio State will have in the Big Ten, Georgia draws the No. 5 most difficult schedule nationally and the No. 7 most difficult SEC conference schedule.
All of the other SEC contenders listed above have schedules at the very bottom in conference difficultly. The lone exception is Oklahoma, which drew the No. 2 toughest schedule is the country and the toughest conference schedule.
Georgia has a brutal road schedule featuring games at Alabama (-1), at Texas (-2) and at Mississippi (pick'em). Alabama also has a challenging road schedule featuring games at Tennessee (+2), LSU (+1) and Oklahoma (+0.5) in addition to the home game against Georgia.
Based on these gauntlets, it is tough to pick either the Bulldogs or the Crimson Tide to return to the SEC Championship Game. Instead, the Texas Longhorns appear to have the inside track due to their high ranking and manageable schedule.
Within the group of top-nine SEC teams, Texas only plays Georgia (+2), at Texas A&M (+3) and Oklahoma (+6.5). The Longhorns project to be favored in all eight conference games and thus project to go 8-0 in the "most likely" scenario shown in Table 1. In the "disruptive" scenario, where I added a historically reasonable number of road upsets, the Longhorns lose at rival Texas A&M but still finish at 7-1.
Regarding the second team in the SEC Championship Game, the most likely scenario has Alabama barely edging the four toughest opponents on the schedule to also finish at 8-0. But I think it is unlikely for the post-Nick Saban-era Crimson Tide to be able to pull off that feat. In the disruptive scenario, Alabama take three losses to finish at 5-3.
Instead, the disruptive scenario projects Mississippi to edge Georgia (pick'em) in Oxford to finish at 7-1 and claim the second spot in the SEC Championship Game. Even if the Rebels fall to the Bulldogs, they could still finish at 7-1 with a road win over LSU (pick'em), as the next most difficult games on the schedule are a home game against Oklahoma (+6.5) and a road game at Florida (+6.5).
On a neutral field, Texas projects to be a two-point favorite over Mississippi, and as such, the Longhorns are my pick to win the SEC in their first year in the league.
One other team to keep an eye one is Texas A&M. The Aggies project to be favored in their first seven conference games until the regular season finale against Texas. They are my dark horse pick to make the SEC Championship Game.
Big 12 Overview and Prediction
Table 2 below provides the same set of data for the Big 12 as Table 1.
The data for the Big 12 is remarkably similar to the SEC except that instead of nine teams ranked in the top-16, the Big 12 has 10 teams ranked between No. 17 and No. 41. The odds distribution is very similar with no team having odds better than 32% to make the conference title game and over 18% to win the conference crown.
While No. 17 Utah has a slight edge in odds, the Big 12 looks to be a toss-up between the Utes, No. 19 Oklahoma State, No 20 Kansas State, No. 23 Kansas and No. 24 Arizona. With the expectation of Oklahoma State, the other five primary contenders happen to own the four easiest conference schedules.
The list of secondary contenders includes No. 31 Iowa State, No. 33 West Virginia, No. 36 TCU, No. 40 UCF and No. 41 Texas Tech, but the combination of being projected as weaker teams with tougher schedules makes it hard to pick any of these schools to make the Big 12 Championship Game.
In the most likely scenario, Kansas State runs the table and earns a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Wildcats are a good bet in general as they avoid Utah and face Oklahoma State and Kansas at home. Even if Kansas State were to lose on the road at West Virginia or at Iowa State (as predicted in the disruptive scenario), the Wildcats are in a strong position based on head-to-head tiebreakers.
In the other Big 12 Championship Game slot, I will go with Utah, as the Utes finish 8-1 in both scenarios with a sole conference loss at Oklahoma State. The second-most difficult conference game on Utah's schedule is at UCF (+5.5), which seems manageable.
Based on their preseason rank, Utah projects as a slight favorite over Kansas State on a neutral field.
However, I should note that my analysis of the 2023 season suggested that Utah (+1.31 games of luck), Oklahoma State (+2.47) and Kansas (+0.75) were all on the lucky side last year, while Kansas State (-1.71) and Arizona (-0.67) were both unlucky.
With this in mind, and despite tough road games at Utah (-7), UCF (-2) and TCU (-1), I like Arizona as my dark horse Big 12 pick. Ultimately, Kansas State is my pick for the Big 12 title.
ACC Overview and Prediction
Table 3 below provides the same set of data for the ACC as Tables 1 and 2.
While the ACC also looks to be a competitive league this year, there is noticeable separation between the top-seven teams and the remainder of the conference. There is an 89% chance that the eventual winner of the ACC is No. 11 Florida State, No. 14 Clemson, No. 18 Miami, No. 22 Louisville, No. 26 SMU, No. 27 North Carolina State or No. 29 Virginia Tech.
Interestingly, all seven of those teams finish the regular season with conference records of either 7-1 or 6-2 in both my most likely and disruptive scenarios. In both cases, there is tiebreaker chaos involving either a four-way or five-way tie at the top of the conference.
With such complex ties, there will be no set of common opponents and the tiebreaker will revert to essentially the strength of each team's conference schedule. Based on Table 3, this suggests that Florida State (No. 6 toughest conference schedule), Miami (No. 9), Clemson (No. 11) and Louisville (No. 12) are likely to have the edge in potential tiebreaker scenarios.
The following 10 conference games are the one most likely to determine the two teams that will meet in the ACC Championship Game.
As for my pick, I will go with the disruptive scenario. In this case Florida State takes losses at SMU and at Miami, while Clemson drops road games at Florida State and at Virginia Tech. As a result, the two teams most likely to win out of any potential tiebreaker are Miami and Louisville. The Hurricanes project to be a two-point favorite over the Cardinals on a neutral field which makes Miami my pick to win the ACC.
As for a dark horse pick, I am going to go on a gut feeling and take SMU.
The final team worth discussing is ACC partial member Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish cannot earn a first-round bye in the 12-team playoff, but as the preseason No. 9 team, they will be a contender for one of the seven at-large spots.
Notre Dame is projected to be a double-digit favorite in every game on the schedule except for the Week One game at Texas A&M (pick'em), the home game against Florida State (+5) and the regular season finale at USC (+2.5).
The most likely scenario has Notre Dame running the table and making the playoffs, while the disruptive has the Irish falling at Texas A&M and USC and likely not qualifying for the playoffs.
The analysis so far of the current group of "Power Four" conferences yields a list of candidates for the four first round byes of the 12-team College Football Playoff. But one other team from the so-called Group of Five will also earn a playoff spot. In the next installment of the preseason series, we will take a quick tour of the remaining FBS conferences. Stay tuned.
If you missed out on the first three installments of this series, check them out here:
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