In part one of this year's math-based preseason analysis of the college football season, we took a look back at the 2023 season. Through that analysis, we learned about the historical accuracy of preseason polls (plus-or-minus 25 positions) and regular season win totals (plus-or-minus 2.1 wins). We also explored the impact of changes in ability, schedule and luck.

Now it is now time to shift focus to the 2024 season. Over the years, I have developed and refined a way to simulate the entire college football season using schedule information and preseason rankings as the only inputs. I will soon go through the full details of what I learned from this exercise.

For today, I will focus exclusively on what it says about the Michigan State Spartans. We will take a close look at the Spartans' schedule from three different points of view.

The best place to start this analysis is with the simulation's inputs. Figure 1 below summarizes the preseason rankings (which correlate to team strengths) for Michigan State and the Spartans' 2024 opponents.

The bars give the preseason rankings for each team from five publications: Phil Steele, Athlon Sports, Lindy's Sports, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and Bill Connelly's SP+. The final labeled bar in each cluster is the consensus average of the five rankings. This is the number that I use to set the power rankings for my full-season simulations.

The Spartans' preseason rankings vary. Lindy’s is the most optimistic, ranking Michigan State as the No. 51 team in the nation, while SP+ has the Spartans down at No. 82. Athlon (No. 58), the FPI (No. 68) and Phil Steele (No. 72) are somewhere in-between. As a result, I have assigned Michigan State with a consensus ranking of No. 66.

As for Michigan State's opponents, MSU draws three teams in Ohio State (No. 2), Oregon (No. 3) and Michigan (No. 8) that are consensus top-10 teams. These games will all obviously be challenging.

The next tier of the Spartans' schedule includes three teams that are projected to be a bit better than Michigan State in 2024. The Iowa Hawkeyes are projected as a borderline top-25 team. After Iowa comes Rutgers and Maryland. The Scarlet Knights and the Terrapins enter the season ranked in the mid-to-upper 40s across the board.

The next tier of opponents for Michigan State includes four teams with a very similar ranking to the Spartans: Boston College, Illinois, Purdue and Indiana. All four teams enter the season ranked within eight slots of Michigan State.

Finally, Michigan State opens the season with Florida Atlantic. The consensus ranking for the Owls is No. 102 out of 134 teams. The Spartans also host one FCS team, Prairie View A&M, which finished last season at 6-6 and is certainly the weakest team on Michigan State's 2024 schedule. Due to Prairie View A&M being an FCS team, there isn't a way to make an apples-to-apples comparison with the FBS opponents, thus the Panthers are not included in the graphic above.

Figure 1 provides a qualitative look at the schedule for Michigan State this fall. Figure 2 below provides the projected point spreads and the odds for the Spartans to win each of the 12 regular season games in 2024.