Throughout the season, I have provided updates on the prospects for the Michigan State men's basketball team using predictive metrics and simulation to estimate how the full Big Ten season is likely to play out.

Following the win this weekend over Rutgers, the Spartans overall position remained mostly unchanged. Michigan State is mostly likely to finish 12-8 or 11-9 in conference play in roughly fourth place. The Spartans have about a 2.0% chance to claim a share of the Big Ten regular season title.

Michigan State continues to have one of the easier overall and remaining Big Ten schedules. The Spartans also continue to be the least "lucky" team in the conference as measured by the difference between actual wins and expected wins (based on probabilities derived from point spreads).

In the previous data-driven update, I introduced the Kenpom efficiency scatter analysis, which revealed that despite the disappointing win-loss record, Michigan State continues to have the efficiency of a borderline national title contender. The Spartans are also one of only nine teams currently ranked in the top 30 of both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Today, I would like to introduce a new concept for this year that also will help us to understand more about the 2023-24 Michigan State Spartans. That concept is referred to as the "four factors" of basketball success.

The Four Factors have been discussed in great detail elsewhere, including on this site about a year ago. Briefly the four factors on both offense and defense are:

1. Effective field goal percentage (eFGPct)

2. Turnover percentage (TOPct)

3. Offensive rebounding percentage (ORPct)

4. Free-throw rate (FTRate)

Basically, the four factors account for how well a team shoots or defends shots (eFGPct), the ability of a team to create (or lose) shots opportunities (TOPct and ORPct), and the ability of a team to score or avoid points from the free throw line (FTRate).

As a start, let's first compare the 14 Big Ten teams based on the four factors. Table 1 below gives the adjusted Kenpom offensive efficiency and performance in the four factors on offence.

The teams are listed in order of overall Kenpom efficiency margin, which is typically an accurate estimation of points spreads on a neutral court. Michigan State is currently the fourth highest ranked Big Ten team in this system.

The Spartans are currently ranked No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjOE) behind Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Iowa. The remainder of the table gives some context as to what each team does well or poorly on the offensive end.

Michigan State is ranked No. 4 in effective field goal percentage, which is the most important of the four factors. The Spartans are a little above average in avoiding turnovers (No. 6), a little below average in offensive rebounding (No. 9), and very poor at getting to the free throw line (No. 13).

As for the rest of the conference, Purdue is very good at shooting, offensive rebounding, and getting to the free throw line. However, the Boilermakers do tend to turn the ball over.

Wisconsin has good overall offensive numbers, but the Badgers get there mostly by avoiding turnovers and getting to the free throw line. Wisconsin is just average at shooting and offensive rebounding. Illinois is average is all categories except for offensive rebound, where the Illini are ranked No. 1 in the conference.

Iowa and Northwestern are okay shooting teams but both teams take very good care of the ball. Maryland and Rutgers both rely on getting to the free throw line. Michigan and Minnesota both shoot the ball surprisingly well and are okay at rebounding but tend to be careless with the ball.

Table 2 below provides the same analysis, but on the defensive side of the ball.

So far this year, the Spartans are a bit better on defense than on offense (ranked No. 4 in the Big Ten). Michigan State ranks in the top 5 in field goal percentage defense, creating turnovers, and defensive rebounding. The only area where Michigan State is below average is putting opponents onto the free throw line.

As for the rest of the conference, Rutgers is the strongest defensive team and Maryland ranks No. 3. Both teams rely on strong field goal percentage defense and a skill for creating turnovers. Purdue ranks No. 2 in Big Ten defensive efficiency, but the Boilermakers rely more on defensive rebounding and avoiding sending opponents to the free throw line.

Illinois ranks No. 5 in total Big Ten defensive efficiency. The Illini rank in the top 3 is field goal defense, rebounding and avoid fouls, but Illinois ranks last in generating turnovers.

Tables 1 and 2 above show how Michigan State currently matches up with other Big Ten teams. A second and interesting analysis is to compare the statistical profile of the 2023-24 Michigan State team to past Michigan State rosters. Figure 1 below provides this comparison in the form of a box plot.