Coming into Sunday's game with the Fighting Illini, there was some criticism that, while the Michigan State Spartans were alone in first place in the Big Ten, they had faced a relatively weak Big Ten schedule.
Mathematically-speaking, I can confirm that statement to be true.
As of Sunday morning, the Spartans had played the easiest schedule of all 18 Big Ten teams. But after beating an Illinois team that Tom Izzo stated he believes is "the best team in the league right now," Michigan State remains as the only unbeaten team in league play.
Easy schedule or not, Michigan State is still perfect, and that is no easy task. Afterall, Illinois could not get a win at Northwestern and took a bad loss to USC at home. Michigan came back from Minnesota with a loss and needed overtime to survive a home game with Northwestern. Purdue lost on the road at Penn State and, on Tuesday night, lost a home game against Ohio State.
Those three teams are the Spartans' biggest competition in the Big Ten race and, combined, they have taken five losses against lower tier Big Ten teams in winnable games. Michigan State is perfect in similar games and now is the only contender with a win over another contender.
The current 7-0 start is tied as the third best start in the Tom Izzo era of Spartan basketball with the 2014 team that made the regional final in the NCAA Tournament. Only the 2010 and 2019 Final Four teams (which both also won the Big Ten regular season title) had better starts at 9-0. With two very winnable games next up on the schedule (at Rutgers and versus Minnesota), this year's Michigan State team will have a great opportunity to match that record start by the end of the month.
But those aren't the only milestones that the Spartans are targeting for the remainder of the season. With the win over Illinois, Tom Izzo has 350 career Big Ten wins. This is just shy of legendary Indiana Coach Bobby Knight, who accumulated 353.
If the Spartans keep winning, they will have a chance to tie the record with a win over USC on Feb. 1 and a chance to break in it in the house that John Wooden built at UCLA on Feb. 4. Furthermore, if the Spartans are able to claim a Big Ten regular season title, Tom Izzo would tie Knight and former Purdue coach Ward Lambert with the most titles in conference history at 11.
The 2024-25 season has the potential to be special in more ways than one.
Four Factors Review
Returning to the topic of the win over Illinois, what did the Spartans do to earn that hard-fought victory?
Figure 1 below provides an analysis of Michigan State's 80-78 win versus Illinois on Jan. 19, 2025 based on the Four Factors.
Why did Michigan State win?
Overall, it was a very evenly matched game. Illinois shot the ball just slightly better than Michigan State (46.2% to 45.4% in effective field goal percentage) and Illinois had a slightly higher offensive rebounding rate. However, the Spartans did a slightly better job taking care of the ball and getting to the free throw line.
When we look at the raw values, the numbers are actually even closer. Illinois had exactly one more rebound than Michigan State (41-40), but committed two more turnovers (10 to 8). Illinois had one additional shot from the field (66 to 65), but both teams hit exactly 28 shots. Both teams also shot exactly 27 free throws.
Of the Fighting Illini's 28 makes, two more of them were three-point shots, but the difference in the game was that Michigan State simply made more free throws. The Spartans hit 21 free throws compared to just 17 for Illinois, which more than compensated for the advantage that Illinois had from deep.
Big Ten Race Update
Michigan State has had sole possession of first place in the Big Ten since Michigan took an upset loss at Minnesota on Jan. 16. Beating Illinois on Jan. 19 had the combined positive impact of keeping the Spartans by themselves at the top of the standings and handing the Fighting Illini their third conference loss.
But even after the win on Sunday, and despite the standings, Purdue still had a slight lead in Big Ten odds. However, that all changed when Purdue lost to Ohio State at home on Tuesday night.
Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings.