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Published Sep 5, 2024
Dr. Green and White Bad Betting Advice, Week Two: Incline
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Paul Fanson  •  Spartans Illustrated
Staff Writer
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@PaulFanson

We are just one short week into the college football season and although there is still a ton of uncertainty, the situation is becoming more clear.

For example, a few things look better than expected relative to just a few days ago. Some units and teams that come to mind include Michigan State's defense, Penn State, USC, Notre Dame, Miami, Alabama, Georgia, and Texas.

On the other side of the coin, there are a few other groups that perhaps underachieved in Week One. The Michigan State offense, Wisconsin, UCLA, Florida State, Clemson, South Carolina, and Virginia Tech all fall into this category.

Unfortunately for the Michigan State Spartans, several future opponents fell into the "better than expected" category. Six of the Spartans' Big Ten opponents won in Week One by a combined score of 259-21. The other three Big Ten opponents are currently ranked in the top 10.

Oh, and did you see that Michigan State's Week Four opponent, Boston College, went into Tallahassee and beat Florida State by 15 points on Monday night?

In the preseason, I had the Spartans' schedule ranked the No. 29 most difficult in the country. After the action in Week One, that ranking is up to No. 18.

Neat.

We all knew in the off season that just making a bowl game in Jonathan Smith's first season as coach might be an uphill climb. But just seven days in it feels like the ascent just got steeper. Someone snuck into the gym late one night and bumped the incline up a few degrees on the treadmill.

Oh, and did you see the news about how Michigan State lost three key contributors in the game against Florida Atlantic to significant injuries? Wide receiver Alante Brown and defensive backs Khalil Majeed and Dillon Tatum are all expected to be out until at least November, if not the full season.

Add a few more degrees to the incline. Cool.

It that were not enough, Michigan State opens Big Ten play with a road game against Maryland. The Terrapins hammered UConn by a score of 50-7 last weekend. Maryland also happens to have a track record over the past decade or so of playing their best football in the month of September.

Tick the incline up just a little bit more. Freaking fantastic.

Based on this current state of affairs, Michigan State fans may be inclined to feel a bit depressed. But don't be discouraged. Spartans never back down from a challenge. As the old saying goes, teams make the most improvement between Week One and Week Two.

Last week, the Spartan offense had key errors on the two longest possessions of the second half. If Aidan Chiles doesn't throw an interception at the five-yard line and if Brian Lindgren calls literally any other play on fourth-and-1, Michigan State could have feasibly led 30-10 if not 30-3 midway through the fourth quarter of last week's game.

If the Spartans can tighten up those errors and generally gel a bit more, the offense could suddenly look a lot better. If that happens, the challenges surrounding both the game this weekend and the season as a whole will not seem so steep. I am inclined to believe that can happen.

MSU Prediction

Saturday marks the 15th meeting between the Spartans and Terrapins. The two schools played five times between 1944 and 1950 and have played each other in each of the last nine seasons since Maryland joined the Big Ten in 2014.

The Spartans dominated the series early by winning 10 of the first 12 matchups including 6-of-7 from 2014 to 2021 and by covering the spread in all but two of the wins. But, the Terrapins have won the last two games against the Spartans by double digits and have covered the spread both times.

This week, Michigan State opened as an 8.5-point underdog at Maryland. Historically, this gives the Spartans a 27% chance to pull the upset win. The over/under for the game is set at 44.5 points.

It is possible that the Spartans can show major improvement on the road against Maryland, especially on offense. But, it is yet to be determined if they actually will. While my heart wants to believe, I always leave it to my cold, heartless, and unbiased computer to make my actual predictions.

Last week's performance has made my laptop a bit of a skeptic. My official prediction has the Spartans only mustering as many points as they scored in Week One. I have Maryland beating Michigan State by a score of 26-16.

Based on this score, my computer also favors the under. This may also be a smart bet based on history. This match-up has hit the under in eight of the last nine games. I see no reason yet for that to change this year.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Two, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differential.

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