At the beginning of the season, I had this Saturday night's game between the Michigan State Spartans and the Boston College Eagles circled on my calendar. My expectation was that the Spartans would be 2-1 entering the game with a loss at Maryland on the resume, but with an opportunity to score a nice non-conference road victory in the city of Boston (well, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts).

So far in 2024 both the Spartans and the Eagles have been pleasant surprises. Instead of 2-1, Michigan State is undefeated and hoping to stay that way. If the Spartans were to get the win this weekend and move to 4-0, it would most likely translate into a top-25 ranking. Michigan State would once again experience life in the fast lane on both the national and Big Ten levels.

But Boston College own an even stronger start due to a win at Florida State and a competitive loss at top-10 Missouri. As a result, this game looks tougher for the Spartans — especially with it being BC's "Red Bandana Game" — than expected when we were reviewing the schedule over the summer.

I can't tell you why exactly, but this situation has given me a peaceful, easy feeling about this weekend's game. With three wins already in the bank, it feels like the Spartans are playing with house money. While a win would certainly be great, I won't be feeling much heartache if they were to lose.

MSU head Coach Jonathan Smith is still the new kid in town, but based on the way the Spartans have looked in just the first month of his tenure, my concerns about the future of the program are already gone. In the long run, I believe that he is going to build a successful, if not very successful, program in East Lansing.

Saturday night there will be a big game under the bright lights. A victory would be huge. I am not sure how long it is going to take, but one of these nights, Coach Smith is going to win that huge game with Michigan State. I suspect that soon after he will then win another, and another, and another.

But maybe, just maybe, one of those nights will be this Saturday.

Saturday night's contest between the Spartans and the Eagles will mark just the seventh game between the two schools, and only the fourth matchup since 1950.

Michigan State went 0-2-1 against Boston College in the 1930s and 1940s. The two schools split a home-at-home series in the 1990s. Most recently, Michigan State lost to Boston College in the 2007 Champs Bowl. The Eagles were led in that game by future top-three NFL pick, quarterback Matt Ryan.

The Vegas spread opened with Michigan State as a 6.5-point underdog, which corresponds to a 32% chance that the Spartans can steal an upset win. The over/under for the game is set at 45.5.

When I take all the preseason data and the results from the first three weeks of the season and run them through my computer, my machine is slightly less optimistic than the bookmakers in Las Vegas. It gives a final score prediction of Boston College 27, Michigan State 17.

The Spartans have been solid over the last two weeks after a slow start in Week One. While the direction of the program seems to be decisively pointed upward, that does not mean that the road ahead will be smooth. It seems likely that the uptick in the competition this week will be enough to force the Spartans back down to earth.

My #math recommends to take Boston College and the under.

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Four, including my projected scores, the opening point spread and the computers' projected point differentials.