Happy bye week, Spartan fans!

Michigan State has the weekend off for its second bye week of the 2024 campaign, and once again, it seems to have come at the perfect time. The Spartans are coming off back-to-back losses. The first was an emotional loss to the in-state rivals from down the road, Michigan, and the second was a 37-point butt-kicking by a top-10 Indiana team.

The biggest concern coming out of last weekend's loss to Indiana is the health of sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles. The good news is that head coach Jonathan Smith told the media that he expects Chiles to be ready to play in two weeks at Illinois.

In the meantime, the good doctor recommends that the Spartan players, coaches and fans just relax, ice those sore joints, and get physically and mentally ready for the final three, very winnable games on the schedule.

As for this week, data never sleeps, I will continue to provide some insight (and a few betting suggestions) for the action in the Big Ten and beyond.

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week 11, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials.

Note that all rankings referenced below are my computer system's rankings and not any of the national polls.

The Spartans are not the only Big Ten team taking it easy this weekend. Five other Big Ten teams also have a bye, leaving just six conference games.

The four conference contenders are all at home and are all at least 13.5-point favorites. No. 1 Ohio State (-38.5) and No. 6 Oregon (-24) are expected to have the easiest weekend while facing No. 108 Purdue and No. 50 Maryland, respectively. The computers both like the Buckeyes and Terrapins to cover the spread.

No. 9 Penn State (-14) and No. 7 Indiana (-13.4) are expected to get slightly stiffer challenges versus No. 29 Washington and No. 52 Michigan, respectively. The computers are split on which team will cover the spread in the Huskies vs. Nittany Lions contest, but both machines are betting on the Hoosiers to cover.

In the other two conference games, No. 14 Iowa (-5.5) and No. 17 Minnesota (-5.5) are both looking to pad their bowl resume in games at UCLA and at Rutgers, respectively. The FPI is picking Rutgers to cover, but the computers like the favorites otherwise.

Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football landscape in Week 11.

The table highlights the action for the primary contenders in each remaining power conferences, as well as the Group of Five contenders for the likely final automatic bid to the College Football Playoff.

The race for the SEC is still very much up in the air, but a pair of Week 11 games should provide some clarity.

No. 2 Alabama has two loses and is a bit of a long shot to get to the SEC Championship Game (with just 17% odds), but if the Crimson Tide can win at No. 15 LSU (+3), they will stay in the hunt for both the SEC title and the playoffs. The same goes for LSU. The loser will have little or no chance at postseason glory.

Of similar importance is No. 5 Georgia at No. 4 Mississippi (+3). The Bulldogs currently have the second-best odds (37%) to reach the SEC Championship Game, while the two-loss Rebels' hopes are hanging on by a thread at just 13%. Both computers are taking Mississippi in a mild upset.

No. 3 Texas (54%) owns the best odds to make the SEC Championship Game and the Longhorns will stay on top assuming they can handle No. 28 Florida (+21) in Austin. Similarly, No. 10 Tennessee (32%) looks to stay in the heat of the races, assuming the Vols can handle No. 73 Mississippi State (+24.5).

No. 19 Vanderbilt (5%) is a long shot to reach the SEC Championship Game, but it is a fun story to track. The Commodores are underdogs at home against No. 12 South Carolina (-4). No. 21 Texas A&M will be convalescing at home this weekend after the fierce pecking that the Aggies received last week from the previously mentioned Gamecocks.

It could be a make-or-break week in the Big 12 race as well. No. 22 BYU is alone in first place with a commanding lead in the odds to make the Big 12 Championship Game (79%). The Cougars have a tough in-state road test this week at No. 71 Utah (+4.5).

No. 11 Iowa State (49%) and No. 23 Colorado (43%) are locked in a battle for second place and both schools also have tough road games. The Cyclones travel to No. 49 Kansas (+3.5) and the Buffaloes face No. 55 Texas Tech (+3). The Red Raiders are just a game out of second place with 10% odds to reach the conference title game. An upset win over the Buffaloes could get them back into the race.

The ACC race appears to be winding down as No. 13 Miami (96%) and No. 31 Southern Methodist (84%) have separated from the pack. Those two teams meet in the ACC Championship Game in 80% of the time in this week's simulation. SMU is on a bye and Miami is a double-digit favorite at No. 58 Georgia Tech.

No. 39 Clemson (6%) and No. 18 Virginia Tech (4%) are now both long shots to reach the ACC postseason. The Tigers and Hokies (+5.5) face off this week in a virtual elimination game in Blacksburg.

In Group of Five action, four of the top-five contenders for a spot in the College Football Playoff are double-digit favorites this week. No. 24 Tulane (-26) and No. 33 Boise State (-25.5) should both win in blowout fashion. No. 59 Western Kentucky (-19.5) and No. 64 Louisiana (-13.5) are also both expected to win as well.

The biggest game on the Group of Five slate is No. 30 Army at No. 79 North Texas (+6). The Black Knights are still in great shape to make the American Athletic Conference Championship Game (97%), but a loss would make a dent in their odds to reach the playoffs.

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Las Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.

As we will see, the computers are also both seemingly taking things easy this weekend.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column.

This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.

My computer selected only five upsets picks this week, three of which the FPI agrees with. Notable upset picks include Virginia Tech over Clemson (-5.5) and Mississippi over Georgia (-3).

A simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 12.6 upsets, plus-or-minus 2.9 upsets, out of 50 games is most likely. This suggests a slightly more calm and peaceful weekend may e in store, which is nice for relaxing.

The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 that fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.

My computer suggests only two recommendations against the spread this week and the FPI concurs on one of them. The machines like Tulane to cover against Temple and for Virginia Tech to cover versus Clemson.

Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point-total (over/under) bets for the week

My computer is only putting four point bets onto the board this week, but all four are considered to be locks. However, it has already gotten one incorrect as the Bowling Green and Central Michigan game took place on Tuesday and did not hit the over.

That is all the advice I have for you this week. I don't know about you, but I am going to ice these hands a bit and try to stave off carpel tunnel. Enjoy the weekend and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above performed.

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