So far, college football fans have enjoyed 11 full weeks of their beloved sport. It has been a season of ups and downs and twists and turns. Some teams have exceeded expectations, and some teams have underachieved. Unfortunately for Michigan State fans, the Spartans fall squarely into the second category.

The Spartans entered this weekend's game against Ohio State as more than a 30-point underdog. The results on the field came as no real surprise. While there were a few bright spots in the run game and on defense, neither Spartan unit was able to string together enough good plays in a row to seriously threaten the Buckeyes.

The final score of 38-3 was predictable and expected, and the truth is that the game was inconsequential. The Spartans fell to 3-7 with the loss, but the season is not yet over. As we will see later, there is a reasonable chance that the Spartans can still find their way to a bowl game IF they can win out.

After what Spartan fans have endured so far this year, the idea of winning out may sound absurd. Perhaps it is. But MSU has a winnable game next week in Bloomington. If nothing else, the Spartans will have a chance in the final weekend to ruin Penn State's Thanksgiving plans in an NFL stadium.

It is not the season that Spartan fans had hoped for back in the summer, but the thought that there may only be two games left this year where the Green and White take the field is a bit sad. The season is almost over, and the truth is Spartan football will be missed.

While the Spartans' season is clearly winding down, there is still a lot of college football analysis to conduct and to discuss. Now it is time to check and see how much truth there was to last week's bad betting advice, starting with the summary of the action shown below in Figure 1.

This week, a total of 14 teams overachieved, notably by beating the opening spread by more than 14 points. Those teams include Oregon State, Texas A&M, Georgia, Oklahoma, Alabama, Iowa State, Iowa, and Purdue.

The only team which underachieved by 14 points, yet still won, is Tulane. This is the second week in a row that the Green Wave are the sole team in this category.

A total of 20 teams underachieved so much that they earned a spot on the upset list for the week. This is the second-most upsets observed all season and over a standard deviation more than projected earlier in the week. Table 1 below summarizes the upsets compared to last week's picks.

The biggest upset of the week was Air Force's loss at Hawaii (+18). Other notable upsets include Arizona State over UCLA (-17), Northwestern over Wisconsin (-11.5), Missouri over Tennessee (-2.5), and UCF over Oklahoma State (-2.5)

Truth be told, both computers had an outstanding week. My algorithm went 5-1 (83%) for the second straight week, bringing the year-to-date performance up to 31-28 (53%). ESPN's FPI went 5-2 (71%) for the week, which elevated its year-to-date record to 20-29 (41%).

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' suggested picks against the opening spread.

Both computers were also dropping truth bombs this week in the picks against the spread. My computer went 2-1 (67%), while the FPI was a perfect 6-0. Coincidentally, both computers are now dead even year-to-date (20-20 and 40-40) for the recommended bets.

For the full slate of games in Week 11, my computer was also even at 32-32 (50%). The FPI was quite a bit better at 38-26 (59.4%). Year-to-date, the FPI has now edged ahead of my computer by a single game (304-306 compared to 303-307) leaving both machines just a hair under .500.

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week 11.

In a continuing trend, my recommended point total bets continue to lag. This week the "lock" picks went just 2-3 (40%) which brings the year-to-date total to 27-33 (45%). The broader set of recommended bets did a little better at 5-4 (56%), but the year-to-date record remains under .500 at 88-95 (48%).

Following the results of Week 11, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten Conference, and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not the College Football Playoff rankings.