Let's take a look at where things stand, how the Spartans got here, how the players have improved, what the future holds this season, and even take a brief glimpse at next year.
Where things currently stand
The non-conference season is in the books with the Spartans going 9-2 against the No. 131 non-conference strength of schedule in the country (according to Kenpom), including:
- an 8-point loss to Kansas on a neutral court (will make the NCAAT field)
- an 8-point loss to Memphis on neutral court (will make the NCAAT field)
- an important win against Bowling Green (a team that should be 8-5, but is, instead, 5-8, and a team that should have a chance to win the MAC league title and auto-bid)
- a solid win over Samford (strong chance to get the auto-bid from the Southern Conference)
- a win over Colorado
- a win against North Carolina (likely makes the NCAAT as an at-large bid—they should have a better record than they do, but have a nice stretch of about seven games in a row that they should win)
While none of these were big wins against Final Four caliber teams, they are wins that solidify the resume (and the Spartans have no bad losses).
How the Spartans got to where they are
Michigan State showed well through the non-conference season on defense, on the glass, and in transition. They showed a balanced half-court offense that relied on attacking the paint, crashing the offensive glass, and getting to the free-throw line on aggressive drives. The lone glaring weakness for the Spartans was three-point shooting, which, at one point, saw the Spartans averaging 20% from beyond the arc (good for 3rd-worst in the nation).
Three games into conference play, the Spartans stand at 3-0 in the Big Ten, with three crucial wins (two on the road) and a home victory over a really good Nebraska team.
The team’s three-point shooting has begun to turn the corner, already up to 28% for the team for the season. Spartan fans, and the staff, should continue to expect that percentage to ‘regress’ to the team’s ‘true-mean’. When that ‘positive’ regression does happen, the Spartans will evolve from ‘really good’ to ‘elite’ as a team.
The team’s defense is already elite (and will likely stay in that territory barring significant injuries), currently ranked #11 in the nation, per Kenpom. The offense is currently cruising at #33 in Kenpom’s rankings but is weighed down by the significant woes from beyond the arc (which are partly balanced by the absurdly good free-throw shooting, which may regress a bit lower too).
In fact, the free-throw shooting acumen of the team further underscores the likelihood of a hot-shooting conference season from 3pt range for the team as free-throw shooting has a strong correlation to 3pt shooting talent.
This team generates incredibly good looks consistently. The team’s dominant defense ensures that opposing teams take fewer open and good looks that aren’t well contested. The team’s dominance on the defensive glass (they have the #16 defensive rebounding rate in the country, only allowing opponents to recover 24.7% of available offensive rebounds) ensures that the team gets out in transition a ton, and having Jeremy Fears, Tre Holloman, and Jase Richardson taking turns running the point allows the transition game to stay fresh and fast all game long.
How player improvement has driven Spartan success
In Jaden Akins, Coen Carr, Xavier Booker, Jase Richardson, and Jeremy Fears, the team has excellent transition finishers, and when you add in Frankie Fidler you also force teams to either allow finishes at the rim in transition or semi-transition or you foul and put excellent free-throw shooters on the line.
In the half-court, the three lead guards and Jaden Akins – who also initiates offense or closes out the final phase of the half-court offense (in late-clock situations) – consistently generate great shots for the team. The playbook is open again for Tom Izzo, and the lead guards are executing: the horns sets, ‘chest’ series, elbow sets, ‘fist’ series, ‘rub’ sets, and ‘Detroit’ sets are all on the table (in a way that they just were NOT the last couple of seasons where the team used a far more limited offensive playbook). And defenses are struggling to contain the varied half-court looks despite the Spartans’ cold shooting.
The keys to the season thus far have been the major improvements from Coen Carr, Jaden Akins, Jeremy Fears, Xavier Booker, and Jaxon Kohler, and the immediate contributions from Symon Zapala and, somewhat surprisingly, Jase Richardson.
Carr’s newfound ability to attack off the dribble and handle a more varied offensive diet – coming off of pin-downs and curls, cutting from the weakside corner, attacking closeouts, and even running occasional pick-and-rolls or isolations from the elbow – mean that he can consistently challenge defenses and pressure the paint with his athleticism and finishing ability. His significant improvement from the free-throw line (he looks poised to break the 70% threshold by the end of the season) also means that teams are punished for fouling him, and it means that he can close games without hurting the team at the line in fouling situations. This last point is crucial because his individual defense has improved so much at the point of attack, on the wing, and on screen navigation that he is able to take on serious defensive duties in a way that he was not able to last season.
Akins, for his part, has gotten back to his isolation scoring game that he exhibited during high school and at times last season, and, more importantly, has gotten into the paint for strong and creative finishes or gotten to the free-throw line in a way that he hasn’t for his entire Michigan State career – these were two major areas of growth for him if he wants to demonstrate to NBA teams that he might have a viable niche in the NBA. Assuming his 3pt shooting rounds back towards 35% (which I am confident it will), then Akins will have a chance to be drafted given his individual defensive ability, his shooting, athleticism, and willingness to attack the paint. In three conference games, Akins is shooting 41% from 3pt range (7-17) so the early indications are positive as far as his shooting.
Fears is already showcasing much of what made him tantalizing last season, but, with Hoggard and Walker gone, and with his physical and mental game rapidly maturing, he is just doing it all … better. He is a physical and combative point-of-attack defender who does this tough and essential job every game in a way that his predecessor only did occasionally. Fears is totally unselfish offensively – setting the table for the team, organizing the offense, and pressuring the paint. Fears is #5 in the nation in assist rate; when he is on the court he is creating for others like few others in the nation while still judiciously finding his own offense – particularly in getting to the line with regularity (he has an 80% free-throw rate) – while tentatively showing that he may yet blossom into a solid three-point shooter and mid-range scorer.
Booker still has frustrating moments (stopping mid-play on three occasions to celebrate blocks against Ohio State despite only being credited with two blocks), but he also has game-changing offensive ability and skill. His coast-to-coast finish and-one during OSU’s big run may have saved the game for the Spartans. While his three-point percentage is still lagging behind his shooting ability this is largely due to his rushing shots, taking shots out of rhythm, and a lingering need to strengthen his legs and core to ensure a consistent release and energy transfer (he gets a bit arm-heavy in his shooting at times).
