The heated in-state rivalry matchup between Michigan State and Michigan takes place on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time (Big Ten Network). The Paul Bunyan Trophy is on the line.
Michigan State comes into the game with a 4-3 overall record and 2-2 mark in Big Ten play. Michigan enters Saturday with an identical record, but the two teams have been going in different directions. MSU is coming off of a big win over Iowa, while U-M has dropped two-straight conference games.
The Wolverines have won the past two contests in the series, but the Spartans have a chance to end that streak this weekend.
Spartans Illustrated spoke with Brock Heilig, beat writer for Maize & Blue Review — the home for all things Michigan on Rivals — to gain more insights about the 2024 Wolverines.
What has gone wrong for Michigan this year? While the offensive struggles have been obvious, has the defense also taken a step back? How should U-M head coach Sherrone Moore be graded thus far? Brock answers these questions and more.
1. Obviously Michigan is not off to the start it wants with a 4-3 overall record and two-straight conference losses. What has gone right for Michigan thus far and what has gone wrong so far?
Brock: Not a whole lot has gone right for Michigan this season. The defense features some of the best top-end talent in the entire country, and the unit shows flashes from time to time, but the offense simply never does the defense any favors, which is ultimately what has gone terribly wrong for the Wolverines this season. What made Michigan so successful last season was its ability to play complementary football. But that success has completely evaporated in 2024. In my opinion, the defense has potential to be elite, but the offense sets it up for failure time and time again. The abysmal Michigan offense overshadows what little bright spot the Wolverines have on the defensive side of the ball.
2. Michigan ranks dead last in the Big Ten in passing yards per game and 129th out of 133 FBS teams (128.3). Is this all on the struggling quarterbacks who have taken a snap this year, or is there more to it than that? Do you expect Jack Tuttle to start at quarterback on Saturday, or could MSU see Alex Orji or Davis Warren behind center? Who do you believe gives the Wolverines the best chance to win?
Brock: Yes, it's mainly on the quarterbacks. Davis Warren and Jack Tuttle have thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season, and Michigan clearly doesn't trust Alex Orji to throw the ball more than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Quarterback play has been awful. However, the wide receivers haven't helped much, either. Tyler Morris and Semaj Morgan were expected to take big leaps in 2024, but they've both regressed greatly. Is this a factor of having significantly worse quarterback play than last year? Probably. But Morris, the junior wide receiver who was described as the "alpha" in the room heading into the season, has eight catches for 73 yards.
I expect Tuttle to start. Sherrone Moore said on his weekly radio show on Monday that if the game were to be played at that moment, Tuttle would probably have been the guy. I don't expect Orji or Warren to perform well enough in practice this week to warrant taking over the job. Despite this, if I were Sherrone Moore, I would start Orji and run the ball 60 times in this game. Using a heavy dose of Kalel Mullings, Donovan Edwards, Orji and maybe Morgan and Morris for the occasional end-around, Michigan could win this game. But will the coaching staff adapt this unique strategy? Probably not
3. Of course, Michigan lost several coaches, including head coach Jim Harbaugh, and many players from 2023's national championship team. The Wolverines were probably always expected to take a step back in 2024, but has it been on par or worse than you thought it would be to this point in the season? How would you grade first-year head coach Sherrone Moore seven games into his tenure, and how big would you say this Michigan State game is?
Brock: This season has gone significantly worse than I expected. My preseason prediction for this team was 10-2, and clearly, they will fall short of my expectations by a wide margin. It's clear Sherrone Moore hasn't gotten off to the best start. But I don't think he is completely at fault for the team's shortcomings this season. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was forced to declare for the NFL Draft later than most, given how late Michigan's 2023 season went, and it's a similar story with Harbaugh. Moore had a late start on hiring a staff and was essentially set up for failure at the quarterback position (many transfer portal QBs had already committed to their new schools by the time McCarthy declared.)
I do give Moore some grace because of these less-than-ideal situations, but it's shocking how much of the team's identity and camaraderie from a year ago has completely been erased. The program has no clear direction, and Michigan is set to lose its best seven or eight players to the NFL after the season. With this, I give Moore a C-minus seven games into his tenure.
With that being said, this is a must-win game for Moore. Michigan State was in a far worse situation than Michigan was this past offseason, and Jonathan Smith has the Spartans looking much better than they looked under Harlon Barnett a year ago. The Wolverines probably have five or six players better than MSU's best player, and losing to your rival at home is simply inexcusable for Moore. He must win this game.
4. Defensively, Michigan ranks 10th in the Big Ten in total yards allowed per game (326.3), 14th in passing yards allowed per game (234.1) and 14th in scoring defense (22.1 points allowed per game). The rush defense is still strong at 92.1 rushing yards allowed per game (third in the conference), but does it feel like the defense has taken a large step back? How much of that can be attributed to the offense putting too much pressure on the defense, in your opinion?
Brock: A large part of it is because of the offense. Because of turnovers, Michigan set up Illinois with a short field twice in last Saturday's loss. That's not a recipe for success. Another big reason for the drop-off, though, is because Michigan did lose a lot of talent from last year's team. Star players like Mike Sainristil, Junior Colson, Michael Barrett, Braiden McGregor and Jaylen Harrell all departed. That's a lot of talent to replace.
Like I mentioned earlier, though, there is still a ton of top-end talent on this defense. The offense isn't doing them any favors, but it does seem like the defense could be playing better, especially when it comes to giving up explosive plays.
5. Who is one surprise player on offense and one surprise player on defense you think could make a difference for Michigan on Saturday night who perhaps some Michigan State fans aren't familiar with?
Brock: I think most Michigan State fans are pretty familiar with Mullings and Edwards. And like I discussed earlier, the wide receivers haven't been a threat at all this season. That leaves me looking at tight end Hogan Hansen. All-American Colston Loveland is obviously the anchor at that position, but with his backup's (Marlin Klein) status in question, Hansen, the true freshman, could provide a spark offensively. That is, if Michigan's quarterback can get him the ball.
On defense, Zeke Berry is a weapon in the secondary. He logged Michigan's first interception of the season, and with how turnover-prone MSU quarterback Aidan Chiles can be, Berry could be a candidate for an interception on Saturday.
6. What is your score prediction? Which team takes home the Paul Bunyan Trophy?
Brock: I simply cannot predict Michigan to win this football game. I don't think Michigan State is that great of a football team, but it appears the Wolverines have completely imploded. Michigan has three below average quarterbacks, little-to-no passing game, and lately, it's looked like a team that doesn't appear motivated to get out of bed in the morning. They're going through the motions this season.
I think the Wolverines will fall to MSU just one year after embarrassing them 49-0 in East Lansing. Michigan State wins, 23-13.
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