I am not going to lie, a matchup at Oregon probably isn’t really the game Michigan State fans wanted to see scheduled for the Spartans after last week's 38-7 loss to Ohio State.

Perhaps the Spartans could use games against struggling teams, such as UCLA, Purdue or Northwestern, but such is life in the new Big Ten. You’ll hit the scheduling lottery some stretches, and other stretches you’ll end up facing arguably the two best teams on the schedule in back-to-back weeks.

Let’s dream of a Michigan State upset this Friday over the Ducks and try to extend this Best Bets segment to 5-0.

OFFENSIVE LINE GIVING MSU A SHOT

Similar to last week, you will have to squint very hard to see a path to victory this weekend. However, if you can see a sliver of that path, it starts with the offensive line. MSU needs to keep quarterback Aidan Chiles protected and forge some semblance of a run game, and it won’t be an impossible task based on Oregon’s season so far.

The Ducks have given up 4.5 yards per carry (granted, they faced arguably the best college running back since Kenneth Walker III in Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty). They have 11 sacks on the season, which ranks in the bottom half of the Big Ten.

That’s not to say it will be an automatic win in the trenches for Michigan State. Talented Oregon rush end Jordan Burch already has three sacks on the season and will potentially be lined up across from true freshman left tackle Rakeem Johnson, if Johnson draws the start there again, which could depend on the status of Stanton Ramil. That battle right there could instantly decide if MSU will be a live underdog on Friday night or not, and that will be an uphill battle for the Spartans.

FIRST HALF AIDAN CHILES

Was last week perfect from sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles? Absolutely not. Heck, third-year college starter and Ohio State quarterback Will Howard and his confounding interception directly into double coverage last week was a good reminder that even experienced college quarterbacks have head-scratching moments.

Anyway, back to Chiles. Last week, his first half against the Buckeyes – aside from the fumble after getting his head spun around via a missed facemask call – was outstanding. He threw 10-for-13 for 142 yards and a touchdown. Chiles' only bad miss was his first throw to true freshman wide receiver Nick Marsh in two weeks (literally – Marsh did not even practice since the Prairie View A&M game).

Best of all, he didn’t make any head-scratching decisions. His interception in the second half was a bad throw – still an issue, but easier to swallow than seeing him unnecessarily put the ball in harms way. It’s not a completed project, but the progress Chiles has made week-to-week is noticeable. Can the Spartans keep moving forward in the growth if not for a win, but at least some more confidence moving into the bye week ahead? We'll soon find out.

TACKLING. YES, JUST TACKLING.

Yeah, easy as that right? Well, turns out, that’s been a tad tough for MSU as the Spartans have missed 48 tackles on the season – only Maryland and Minnesota have missed more tackles in the Big Ten, according to Pro Football Focus. Ironically enough, Oregon has the fewest missed tackles in the Big Ten with 21.

A whopping 15 missed tackles came last weekend against a powerful Buckeye running tandem of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. It gets easier this game, simply because it can’t get any tougher in college football, outside of the aforementioned Jeanty. However, it is still a tough task as Oregon running back Jordan James runs with toughness similar to MSU's Kay’ron Lynch-Adams.

5.8 yards

That’s the average depth of throw for Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel, which is the second shortest in the nation, per Pro Football Focus (minimum 50 attempts).

He’s only thrown 13 passes of 20-plus yards, which is 94th most in the country (Chiles has 27 such attempts, ranking as the 15th-most in the nation, for those curious).

Even though he’s been a starter in college since Brian Lewerke was still slinging the rock in East Lansing, Oregon has kept it simple for Gabriel. Short throws, easy decisions and constantly moving the sticks a little bit at a time has paid off in spades for Oregon, as its quarterback holds a mighty efficient 81.5% percent completion percentage, which is the highest mark in the nation.

7

That’s how many turnovers the Ducks have so far this season – six on fumbles and just one interception. It’s worth pointing out because as MSU sits with 15 turnovers and the old adage of needing to win the turnover battle to cause an upset will be in play here.

Oregon is tight with the ball, and middle of the pack in the Big Ten at penalties (6.5 per game to MSU’s 7.6). Both will have to go in Michigan State’s favor, and at this point, Oregon is stronger at playing a clean game, to no one’s surprise.

MSU +23.5, over/under 53

I’m going to run back what we did last week – the under. Oregon’s defense has been strong all season, letting just one team score over 14 points and that secondary is nothing to play with. On the flip side, MSU’s defense has done a solid job in keeping the game in front of them and tightening up in the red zone. Dare I say…bending and not breaking?

Pick: Under 53

Record: 4-0

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