After a disappointing defensive effort that led to an 88-74 loss to Northwestern, the Spartans had a resurgent effort but fell short to the Fighting Illini 71-68 in Champaign last Thursday. They then went out and finished a strong second half against a mediocre Rutgers team, squeezing the life out of the Scarlet Knights defensively and pouring it in from deep going 12/25 (48%). Thursday night at the Breslin, they outlasted Minnesota to push their record to 11-7 and 3-4 in conference play.
The Spartans continue to be an enigma. Despite the losses stacking up, they find themselves sitting at 16th overall in Kenpom’s efficiency model, 12th in Bart Torvik, and 22nd in the NET prior to Thursday's win over Minnesota.
The metrics continue to love this team but the margin of error continues to narrow. With a semi favorable schedule ahead, can the Spartans find a way to grind themselves above .500 in the Big Ten and notch a couple road wins along the way? Carter and DK are here to talk you through where we’re at with this team and where we think it could be heading.
DK: Carter, it's been another tough year. Slow start, some promising glimpses early, but five early losses in the first nine games, woof. Then a nice five-game win streak with a bludgeoning of Baylor at LCA, followed by back to back road losses at NW and IL before a solid second half close against Rutgers. Fortunately, MSU has a reasonably favorable stretch coming up right now. Over the next six games below, what does MSU have to do for you to begin to buy back in that this is (1) a clear cut tournament team and (2) can actually get out of the first weekend if they get in?
Carter: The aspirations of Phoenix coming into the preseason seem like a pipe dream at this point, but I don’t think it counts them out for being a clear-cut tournament team. As you stated DK, the schedule opens up quite favorably coming up and the Spartans must do everything in their power to win the games at home and avoid any bad losses. The next big test is a trip to the Kohl Center on January 26th to take on Wisconsin in a revenge spot for the Spartans which allows the opportunity to pick up a win that would be massive come Selection Sunday. As of today I do think that this Michigan State team is in the tournament (in some capacity), but unfortunately it’s hard to say at this current juncture if this team can get out of the first weekend if they do get in.
On one hand, Tyson Walker himself is special enough to carry a team to the second weekend and Izzo is a head coach you want on your side in a single elimination game. On the other hand, the lack of depth and carousel at the C spot makes me leery and the early bracketology projected matchups don't make me feel great. If I was a betting man (and I am), I would predict it’s more likely that this team doesn’t make it out of the first weekend. Hopefully their play in the coming weeks can change my mind.
DK: If MSU is to string together some wins in this stretch, who are the two most important players to help achieve those results?
Carter: I think that consistency from Malik Hall will be the biggest factor with Michigan State’s success moving forward. Outside of the disaster that was the Northwestern game, Malik Hall has been able to string together some nice games and those games have led to the Spartans getting wins. His play being consistent will greatly help relieve the pressure from the guard play.
The other most important player to me would be Jaden Akins. I still think there’s another level to Akins' game and in my opinion he’s been kind of the same player he was last season. If he finds another gear, it will be vital to the Spartans' success to close the season, especially if they continue to get consistent play from AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker.
DK: I 100% agree about Malik Hall. If he can give you 12-15 PPG and five RPG a game while playing good defense, the roster as a whole is just more solidified. The depth of this team was hurt with Fears’ injury and the four starters don’t really have the liberty of having an off night when the roster is a 50/50 split at C with really only Holloman and Carr as contributors off the bench.
My second guy would be Coen Carr. Over his last seven games he’s averaging 4.6 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1 BPG and is shooting 70.6% from the field. His athleticism isn’t to be found elsewhere on the roster and his highlight reel plays are FELT. His blocks and dunks have a direct impact on the energy on the floor and in the building, and MSU has to continue to trust in his ability to provide that punch to the roster going forward.
DK: I want to get your feeling on a few players in regards to your trust level with them filling what I think is their needed role for MSU to make the tournament and win a couple games. I will do my best to set the parameters for each and then using a ranking system 1-5 (1 being ZERO trust, 3 being reasonably trustworthy, 5 being the highest level of trust), I want you to rank and explain your reasoning.
Tre Holloman has had a very solid year for the Spartans. I think to a certain degree it surprised both of us the strides he has made. He’s averaging 6 PPG, 3.4 APG (57 AST to 10 TOV), 1.4 RPG on 44/41.3/85.7 splits. However, the numbers in the nine games against Tier A+B opponents (defined on Kenpom as top 50 teams at home and top 100 opponents neutral/away), Holloman’s efficiency rating dramatically drops off (126.2 ORtg to 92.4). He’s 8/21 (38.1%) from the field and 5/17 (29.4%) from deep in those games. Given his importance to the roster depth with Fears’ injury, what is your trust level with Holloman improving his play on the road to mirror the player he is at home? And what does that look like for you statistically in an ideal world?
Carter: Tre Holloman has definitely surprised me this season with his play in a good way. His ability to facilitate, take care of the ball, and knock down threes was not something I had on my preseason Spartans’ Bingo Card. But, even with the improvements, I would still only put his trust level at a 2, because of the discrepancy of play based on the level of opponents. What Tre has done this season has been really good and I would say he is the Spartans’ most improved player, but earning trust to me means doing it on the road and performing against high level competition. In an ideal world, Tre shoots around 35% from deep on several attempts per game on the road and brings his defensive intensity and ability to share the basketball. If I can see it in some of the games ahead on the schedule it would dramatically increase my trust level for him.
DK: What is your trust level that Jaxon Kohler can get back up to speed and meaningfully contribute to the roster the rest of the season? And what does meaningfully contribute look like to you in terms of minutes and production?
Carter: Jaxon is an interesting case with the Michigan State frontcourt because - in comparison to the other center options - he is more skilled, but is a below the rim finisher and does not have the same athleticism or defensive upside. It also doesn't help his case that he is coming off a foot injury that has had him sidelined most of the season. I would put my trust in Jaxon at a 1 or 2 because I’m concerned he still has a ways to go to get up to speed post injury and, even once he does, I don’t know what the ceiling looks like. But, in the state of the current center rotation, having Jaxon as another body/option certainly doesn't hurt.
DK: What’s your current trust level with AJ Hoggard and why?
Carter: Quietly, AJ Hoggard has really gained my trust. After a horrendous start to the season, I think that AJ has shown up and played to his ability in most games. Surely there are turnovers and sometimes questionable off-ball defense but, for the most part, every game the Spartans have been able to depend on AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker. I would put my trust level at a 4 for AJ currently.
DK: Wow! Coming from you a four is basically a six given your preseason stance. I completely agree. After his sluggish three-game start to the season, AJ has scored in double figures every game but one (the most recent one against Rutgers where he had 7 PTS), and during this 14-game stretch he’s averaging 12.7 PPG, 5.1 APG to 2.1 TOV, 3.6 RPG, and 1.2 SPG on 46.3/38.9/83.3 splits. He’s been a steadying force and even when he has a poor half, he’s been able to recover in most instances and re-focus his game. It’s been extremely refreshing to see.
DK: Moving on, I want to take a deeper dive into the rotational minutes. I think we basically know that the backcourt is all going to play around 30+ minutes with Holloman playing around the 25+ minute mark, but with Kohler’s return the frontcourt is getting pretty jammed. In your ideal world, what does the minute split look like between the PF/C spots down the stretch? And should either Hall or Carr get any run at the SF spot?
Carter: I truly think the minute split should be on a game to game basis (my apologies, DK, you know how bad I am with minute rotations). Each center (Sissoko/Cooper/Kohler), should get at least 5 minutes in the first half to get a feel for who is playing the best out of the bunch, and, once that's determined, that player should play around 22 MPG. The other minutes should be allocated to the other two centers based on the matchup, and, with the rest of the PT, I would love to see some small ball lineup with Malik Hall at the 5 and Coen Carr at the 4 (at least 5 MPG).
In an ideal world, I don’t want to see any minutes with Hall or Carr at the 3 just because I think their skillset just works better as a college 4 or 5. I would be intrigued to see how Carr could hold up as a center against certain teams but that probably is asking too much given some of his trouble with the more physical forwards he’s far faced to date. A lineup of Hoggard, Walker, Akins, Carr, and Hall could be very interesting - and potentially potent.
DK: If all goes well throughout the close of the year, what does MSU’s season finish in conference play and hopefully the tournament look like to meet the recalibrated expectations you have for this squad?
Carter: After canceling my plane tickets and AIR BNB I had booked before the season started, I think a realistic expectation for this team would be a second weekend and somehow finding a way to hang a banner (Big Ten Tournament). Now I know this is lofty, but it’s feasible and would soften the blow of not meeting preseason expectations.
DK: Taking a thousand foot view of the program and its current trajectory, we’re on year four of what may likely be a disappointing finish to a season with extremely high expectations. The roster turnover will be exceedingly high in terms of both veterans and production, and the team on paper, with no additions, would be extremely young and mostly unproven across the board. What would Tom Izzo and the staff need to do in the offseason for you to buy back in that the program is heading back in the right direction?
Carter: PORTAL. PORTAL. PORTAL. It is a must at this point going into next season and even if Tom Izzo doesn’t realllllllllyyy want to - he HAS to. MSU is looking at losing Hoggard, Walker, and Hall next season, with the possibility of other departures. The portal would be a great place to fill the holes of this team with experienced and talented players. If there is no portal usage this summer, I think next season may look very bleak, even with the young and exciting pieces they could have coming back. If Izzo wants to compete and win Big Ten titles again, and possibly win his second National Title, using the portal is non-negotiable.
DK: Really couldn’t agree more. Izzo over the last two years has tried to do it the way he always has. Develop his core guys, get old, stay old and build the foundation of his teams through high school recruiting. But the times have changed. Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, OSU, NW, Iowa, every program who has been finishing in the top seven of the conference of late, went out and made an addition to their roster this year that improved their team. EXCEPT for MSU.
MSU’s best two players from last year’s roster were portal players in Joey Hauser and Tyson Walker. Izzo's best player this year is Tyson Walker, who as stated, he got from the portal. Bryn Forbes, Brandon Wood, Eron Harris, the track record from his portal plucks has been pretty good. In a day and age where a program like MSU should be able to command high level mid major players and P6 transfers alike, making recruiting easier as a whole, Izzo has eschewed it, and in many ways done so almost defiantly.
I get the concept of speed dating players in the offseason isn’t what Izzo had in mind to try to build a program; he’s a long term relationship builder, but the game is changing and it’s time to adapt or get left behind. It’s impossible to look at the current roster structure and not think that a bona fide starting quality C would dramatically alter both the ceiling and the floor for this team.
How many more games do they win if a player like Nebraska’s Rienk Manst (who transferred from Bradley) was MSU’s starting center, 2-3? The C spot has been a black hole of backup/rotational guys since Xavier Tillman’s departure, and at this point I don’t blame the players. Sissoko is what he is. Cooper may have some higher upside but he’s probably best long term as a 10-12 MPG backup. Kohler should grow into a nice, versatile role player who can move around both spots in the frontcourt. And that’s fine, but you HAVE to get someone to be your starting C next year.
It's the second year in a row where MSU’s center rotation is objectively 13/14 in the Big Ten. Given the wings recruited in 2023 and 2024 (Normand/Teng), if Akins returns for his senior year I understand if the staff doesn’t go out and get a portal wing. I would, just to be sure you have that spot covered with at least competent play with positional size, but you have the option to play three guards again (Fears, Holloman, Akins, Jase) and both Teng and Normand need clock to see what you have at the SF spot both now and for the future, so I get it. However, there is NO excuse not to address the CLEAR need at C.
Refusing to see that need for a fifth season would go beyond stubbornness and frankly my faith in the program trajectory would be a bit shaken if Izzo stands pat with the young and unproven roster he would have in 2024-25. While we can only hold our breath for this season and the next, I have faith that Izzo is about as sick of losing this many games every year as is the fanbase. Likely, a great deal more.
While he prefers to do things his way, he also has an obsession with winning. And in the end, the desire to compete at the top of the sport and hunt down a second national title will require at least a small philosophical shift to get it done. I’m willing to bet that ultimately and probably begrudgingly, Izzo finds himself looking for the right fit to add to his roster once again this offseason.
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