In the game of football, players in the so-called skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receivers, etc.) are the ones who tend to draw the most attention. But most football experts will tell you games are typically won or lost in the trenches by the offensive and defensive lines.
In 2021, the Michigan State Spartans boasted one of the most potent rushing attacks in the nation. Led by Doak Award Winner Kenneth Walker III, the Spartans accumulated over 2,000 yards total on the ground with an average pick-up of 5.66 yards per carry by the tailbacks.
In 2022, however, the rushing production declined significantly. The Michigan State running back room accounted for just over 1,300 rushing yards and just 4.57 yards per carry. The Spartans' leading rusher in 2021, Jalen Berger, led the team with 683 yards, which was almost 1,000 yards less than the total from Walker (1,636) a year prior.
Granted, Kenneth Walker is a special talent, and some of 2022's struggles were due to running back play. However, at least a portion of the drop in production in 2022 was due to the position group that is the focus of today installment of Spartans Illustrated's 2023 position group preview series: the offensive line.
2022 Position Recap
Concerns on the offensive line began back in the spring of 2022. The Spartans were returning three starters from the 2021 line (Jarrett Horst, Matt Carrick, and J.D. Duplain) and all three players sat out the spring kickoff event with injuries. The only other available lineman who had seen significant playing time prior to 2022 was center Nick Samac.
Duplain returned to full strength by the fall. Duplain and Samac both played over 740 snaps (of 818 total) for the 2022 season and stabilized the core of the line. However, the other three positions were plagued by injuries and inexperience.
Following the 2021 season, tackles A.J. Arcuri and Kevin Jarvis graduated. The Spartans started redshirt junior Spencer Brown at right tackle, who had played only 161 snaps in his first three years on campus. Brown wound up playing a total of 783 snaps in 2022, second on the offense only to Samac with 803.
As the 2022 season wore on, Horst and Carrick continued to battle injuries. The injuries to Horst forced redshirt sophomore Brandon Baldwin into action at the left tackle position, despite the fact that he had yet to see the field in East Lansing prior to the season. Both players ended the season with a little over 400 snaps a piece.
At the guard position, Carrick's injuries resulted in significant playing time for Washington State graduate transfer Brian Greene. However, Greene would also miss the final two games of the season, which resulted in the promotion of redshirt freshman Geno VanDerMark to the starting lineup for those contests. All three players logged between 200 and 360 snaps total. No other lineman on the roster saw more than 25 offensive snaps.
Projected 2023 Starting lineup
The close of the 2022 season saw the graduation and/or departure of Horst, Carrick and Greene. From both an experience and a health point of view, the situation on the offensive line in 2023 already looks significantly brighter.
The projected starting five for the Michigan State offensive line is the following:
--Brandon Baldwin, No. 53 (redshirt junior with 405 snaps in 2022) OR Keyshawn Blackstock, No. 54 (junior college transfer, with two years of eligibility remaining) at left tackle
--J.D. Duplain, No. 67 (fifth-year senior with 742 snaps in 2022) at left guard
--Nick Samac, No. 59 (fifth-year senior with 803 snap in 2022) at center
--Geno VanDeMark, No. 74 (redshirt sophomore with 215 snaps in 2022) at right guard
--Spencer Brown, No. 58 (redshirt senior with 783 snaps in 2022) at right tackle
Blackstock comes to East Lansing as the top-rated junior college transfer offensive lineman in the country. He will have his chance to earn a starting role at one of the tackle positions (on either the left or the right side), or at least be heavily involved in the rotation.
This quintet of Baldwin, Duplain, Samac, VanDeMark and Brown logged close to a total of 3,000 snaps in 2022 and they were clearly who made up the first-string offensive line during the "Spartan Football Kickoff" event at Spartan Stadium back in April.
Experience is nice, but it does not answer the question as to how these players performed last year and how we might expect them to play in 2023. In order to probe this question, the grades provided by Pro Football Focus provide some insight.
On running plays in 2022, Duplain (grade of 72.9) and Samac (70.3) both posted grades that place them solidly above average among Big Ten linemen at their positions, and in Duplain's case, in the top 20%.
Elsewhere on the line, the run blocking grades were not as strong. Brown's grade of 61.9 was slightly above average for Big Ten tackles. Baldwin (55.5) and VanDerMark (53.7) graded out much worse as both were well below average for their positions.
On passing downs, the grades turned out to be a bit better.
Samac posted the third highest grade (80.3) for all Big Ten centers with more than 100 snaps. At the guard position, VanDerMark (90.9) and Duplain (83.0) posted two of the top-three grades in the conference. The Spartans' eventual startng quarterback should receive solid protection from pressure in the middle of the field.
There does appear to be room for improvement at the tackle position. Baldwin (62.2) and Brown (61.1) both posted grades that are slightly below average compared to their Big Ten peers.
The good news is that Baldwin, Brown and VanDeMark are all coming into only their second season of extended playing time. Based on some of the comments at Big Ten Media Days from J.D. Duplain and head coach Mel Tucker there is reason to think that many of the younger players will show some improvement.
"I think we're all at our peak right now," Duplain said regarding the impact of summer conditioning. "I think I've had my best offseason yet, and I think that can be said for just about our entire offensive line. I think that this group is at the best it's been. We've taken this offseason extremely seriously, and we've been working every single day."
Coach Tucker has also noticed a difference in the lineman and that it has been a topic of discussion between the staff during the offseason. There is a noticeable difference in the size of the offensive linemen on the roster.
"Our facilities guy took me through the new building, and I don't know how we got on this topic, and he said, 'These guys are much bigger than they were two years or three years ago,'" Tucker said. "He was talking about the linemen, he said they're averaging like three inches taller than the guys that were here in the past. So we've made a point to get bigger, especially in the trenches.
"Football is a game for big people. In the trenches, you have to move a man against his will. A guy wants to go here and you can say, 'No, you're not going here, you gotta go there.' Well, you need big, strong physical guys to get that done. So we recruited that way."
Projected second string and rotational members
Based on the evidence from both the spring event and from the start of fall camp, the starting second-string offensive line could be made up of the following Spartans:
--Keyshawn Blackstock, No. 54 OR Brandon Baldwin, No. 53 at left tackle
--Evan Brunning, No. 57 (redshirt senior who joined MSU as walk-on in 2019) at left guard
--Dallas Fincher, No. 72 (redshirt junior with 15 snaps in 2022) at center
--Kevin Wigenton II, No. 70 (redshirt sophomore with 12 snaps in 2022) at right guard OR --Kristian Phillips, No. 71 (redshirt freshman) at right guard
--Ethan Boyd, No. 77 (redshirt sophomore with 23 snaps in 2022) at right tackle
During the spring "game" in April, Fincher played center for the second unit while Wigenton played right guard. Phillips appeared to be injured and did not participate in the event.
However, to open fall camp, projected starting center Nick Samac was held out of the first day of practice, and Fincher played center with the first unit. In the second unit, Wigenton slid over to play center and Phillips repped at right guard.
Based on seniority and experience, I would expect to see Wigenton to be the first right guard off the bench instead of Phillips. Wigenton was also one of the younger players who Duplain shouted out at Big Ten Medias for having had a great offseason so far. However, Phillips could certainly see some snaps this season as well.
That said, if I were placing a wager on the rotational offensive linemen who are most likely to see significant playing time this fall (barring injuries), my money would be on the tackles, Blackstock (if he isn't able to earn a starting role) and Boyd. If Blackstock does get a starting nod, then I would expect Baldwin or Brown (depending on who Blackstock replaces) to still see a good amount if snaps.
The Pro Football Focus numbers above highlight some of the struggles from Brown and Baldwin in 2022. As for Boyd, at Big Ten Media Days Duplain mentioned Boyd's name no fewer than three times during the 30-minute session.
With all of this said, Michigan State offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Jay Johnson spoke this week about using a heavy offensive line rotation, so many of the names listed above could be in the playing group.
Remaining offensive lineman
Once again, the third-string unit (and beyond) of the offensive line can be pieced together based on observations from the "Spartan Football Kickoff" event and fall camp.
--Ashton Lepo, No. 66 (redshirt freshman) at left tackle
--Jacob Merritt, No. 69 (redshirt freshman walk-on) at left guard
--Cooper Terpstra, No. 55 (freshman walk-on) at left guard
--Andy Hartman, No. 76 (redshirt freshman walk-on) at left guard or center
--Cole Dellinger, No. 56 (true freshman) at center
--Braden Miller, No. 64 (redshirt freshman) at right guard
--Stanton Ramil, No. 65 (true freshman) at right tackle
--Ben Nelson, No. 75 (redshirt freshman walk-on) offensive lineman
As a note, redshirt freshman Gavin Broscious, No. 68, suffered a significant knee injury in the spring and is unlikely to be available in the spring.
At this point, little is known about this group of young players. The best-case scenario for the Spartans would be for these players to continue to develop.
Check out the previous Spartans Illustrated 2023 positional breakdowns here: