On Thursday, at 12:15 p.m. Eastern Time, the No. 9-seeded Michigan State men's basketball team faces off with the No. 8-seeded Mississippi State Bulldogs at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. This will mark only the fourth all-time meeting of the MSUs, and the first since 1973. The Spartans have won all three previous meetings.
Mississippi State went 21-13 overall this season with an 8-10 mark in SEC Conference play. Due to the fact Mississippi State rarely got blown out (10 of its 13 losses were by single-digits) and a handful of quality wins, including Tennessee twice, Auburn, Washington State, and Northwestern, the Bulldogs graded well in analytic measures - 30th in KenPom, 30th in Torvik, and 31st in NET. Mississippi State stylistically feels akin to a Big Ten program: rugged, defensive-minded, and comfortable playing lower tempo (194th in adjusted tempo, per Torvik).
This is Mississippi State's second consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance under head coach Chris Jans who took over after leading New Mexico State to the NCAA three times in four opportunities. In 2019, New Mexico State lost by one point in the opening round to an Auburn team that joined Michigan State in the Final Four. In 2022, Jans led NMSU to an upset over No. 5 seed UConn, which happens to be the last time the Huskies lost in the NCAA Tourney. Jans' philosophy in the most general terms is aggressive defensive, opportunistic transition offense, and attack the boards.
This season Mississippi State ranked first in the SEC and seventh in the nation in three-point field-goal percentage defense (29.4%) despite their opponents averaging a high volume of nearly 24 three-point attempts per game (279th out of 362 teams). The Bulldogs also ranked high nationally in steals per game, ranking 47th with 8.1 steals a game. Mississippi State has been a solid defensive rebounding team, however they don't challenge many shots and have one of the lowest block percentages in the nation.
Conversely, the Bulldogs are a rather dreadful three-point shooting team themselves, hitting less than a third of their attempts while being in the middle of the pack in the nation in three-point shooting attempts. Mississippi State thrives by scoring efficiently inside the arc, making 53.5% of their two-point attempts.
This success rate is a product of a constant attack on the offensive boards, the Bulldogs ended 21st in the nation in offensive rebounding rate, per Torvik. Fortunately, despite drawing fouls at a high rate and subsequently shooting free throws in bulk, they are decidedly a poor free throw shooting team, hitting only 67% of their attempts, leaving them 325th in the Nation in that category.
It should be noted Mississippi State is sloppy with the ball. As a team, their turnover rate is a ghastly 18.7% of possessions. It is imperative that Michigan State convert live ball turnovers into points.
The Bulldogs are led in scoring by 5'10" feshman guard Josh Hubbard, who earned second-team All-SEC honors. Unlike most guards of his stature, he is not a distributor by nature, but instead a blur attacking the open court and a blow torch behind the three-point line shooting a gawdy 8.6 three-point attempts a game, hitting 36% of his attempts.
Recent players to compare him to would be Markus Howard of Marquette or a smaller version of Carsen Edwards from Purdue. He is capable of scoring in bunches as he tallied 20 or more points 13 times this season. As with most young players, his play can be volatile. In his first game versus Kentucky, he scored three points, in his second game against the Wildcats he netted 34 points. Regardless, he is the top offensive player for Mississippi State. Whether it's Tyson Walker or Jaden Akins guarding him, they'll need to stay closely connected. He's not much of a passer (only 1.7 assists per game), he is simply a diminutive shooting guard.
Mississippi State does have a formidable presence in the post with forward/center Tolu Smith III, a 6'10" sixth year player who was named first-team All-SEC. Smith missed the first 12 games of the season while dealing with a foot injury but averaged 15.2 points and 8.4 rebounds per game upon his return. Smith is a "traditional" post player and he will operate exclusively from the paint.
Smith uses his strength and positioning to adeptly defend his man but he is not a shot blocker. If the game is close in a late game situation and Smith is on the floor he is an excellent option to put on the line with a career free throw percentage of 59.6%.
The third player likely to be impactful for the Bulldogs is Cameron Matthews. The 6'7" senior forward led Mississippi State in assists, blocks, and steals, while also being the second best rebounder and third leading scorer at nearly 10 points a game. Matthews will be assigned to Malik Hall, which is problematic for Michigan State as Matthew was named to the SEC All-Defensive Team. Matthew has a similar offensive shooting profile to Smith, he is not a threat from deep, he can score effectively in the paint, and is a dismal free throw shooter (a career 58% from the charity stripe).
Though those three are the primary contributors for the team, it is a rather balanced and deep roster. The bench produced over 26 points a game which was good for 38th in the nation. One player some may recognize coming off the bench is Jimmy Bell Jr. from Sagniaw. Bell left the state of Michigan to attend a prep high school in Arizona and has since been a member of four different college teams. At 6'10" 280 pounds, you will not miss him if he is on the court. Unsurprisingly, he is a productive rebounder and competent scorer, averaging over five points and five rebounds in under 16 minutes of playing time.
A few random notes:
- Mississippi State will be wearing their alternate gray uniforms with their version of script State on the jerseys.
- The NCAA Tournament uses the Wilson EVO NXT basketball, as does Mississippi State. Michigan State used a Nike basketball all season. The Spartans shot the ball well in the last NCAA Tournament using the Wilson EVO NXT.
- Mississippi State and Michigan State do have a significant prior connection from the NCAA Tournament due to the "Game of Change" played at Jenison Fieldhouse between Mississippi State and Loyola in 1963.
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