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Published Oct 25, 2024
Game Preview: Michigan vs Michigan State
Kyle Luce  •  Spartans Illustrated
Staff Writer
Twitter
@L_kyle3

Throw out all the cliché gripes surrounding the landscape of college football, and give the critiques regarding the expanded conferences and dwindling regional identity a day of rest. It's time to get fired up for Michigan State (4-3 overall, 2-2 in Big Ten play) vs. Michigan (4-3 overall, 2-2 in Big Ten play).

These teams enter Saturday night's game in Ann Arbor (7:30 p.m. Eastern Time on the Big Ten Network) with different levels of momentum. Michigan State is coming off of a big homecoming win, 32-20, against Iowa. Michigan has lost two-straight conference games to Washington and Illinois, respectively. Both programs are in year one of new coaching regimes, and some of the many bumps and bruises on the strenuous path of progress could be forgiven if you can come out on top of this heated rivalry matchup.

The last time MSU and Michigan faced where both programs were in year one of a new coaching regime was in 1995. Those first-year head coaches were Michigan legend Lloyd Carr and college football icon Nick Saban. In 2024, MSU's Jonathan Smith and U-M's Sherrone Moore are set to face off.

Saban would go on to be the first MSU coach to win his debut game for the Paul Bunyan Trophy. Mel Tucker was also able to accomplish that feat. Can Smith become the next Spartan head coach to do so? Time will tell.

So what's at stake this year? One could presume a spot in the College Football Playoff is out of reach for both squads, and we're far from the days of this being a top-10 matchup. But some things need no added pretense. The stakes are always high in this game because the disdain between the programs and the fan bases runs that deep.

For Michigan State, it's the chance to punch first, and flat out to say that what happened the last two years are not going to happen again, and that despite the poor showings in 2022 and 2023, this is a new era under Smith. An era where Green and White reigns supreme, or at the least will be a foe that to be defeated will take everything you've got.

For Michigan, a win at home restores confidence that even in a down year, Paul Bunyan will wear maize slacks if the Wolverines have anything to say about it. While the Wolverines have had a disappointing season following a national championship, this a big opportunity, at home, to turn things around and keep their postseason hopes alive and well.

With an opening line this summer for this matchup favoring the Wolverines by about 24.5 points, it has since fallen down to favoring U-M by just 3.5 points or 4.5 points depending on your source. Given Michigan's current struggles, it feels like this is the exact right moment for this game if you're Michigan State. But that doesn't mean it will be easy.

Let's take a closer look at this Saturday night's matchup between the bitter rivals.

2024 statistics review: 

Michigan State:

-Record: 4-3 (2-2 in Big Ten)

-Offense: 366.7 YPG, 233.43 passing YPG, 133.3 rushing YPG

-Defense: 323.1 YPG, 192.0 passing YPG, 131.1 rushing YPG

-Third-down offense: 40.70%

-Third-down defense: 42.71%

-Points per game: 21.57

-Points per game allowed: 20.86

MICHIGAN :

-Record: 4-3 (2-2 Big Ten)

-Offense: 308.6 YPG, 128.29 passing YPG, 180.3 rushing YPG

-Defense: 326.3 YPG, 234.14 passing YPG, 92.1 rushing YPG

-Third-down offense: 38.46%

-Third-down defense: 39.22%

-Points per game: 21.14

-Points per game allowed: 22.14

SERIES HISTORY

All-Time Series: Michigan leads, 73-38-5

Series in Ann Arbor: Michigan leads, 51-23-3

Series in Big Ten Games: Michigan leads, 40-29-2

Last Meeting: U-M 49, MSU 0 (2023 in East Lansing)

Current Series Streak: Two wins by Michigan

UNIFORM WATCH

Michigan State:

It is a green helmets, white jerseys and white pants for Michigan State. For more on this uniform combo, read this guest post on Spartans Illustrated by @msu_uniforms.

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Michigan Uniforms:

Michigan will go with the traditional look of the winged helmet, blue jerseys and maize pants.

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KEY MATCHUPS

Strike First, and Hold The Line

Michigan State's win against Iowa last week serves as a blueprint for Saturday's game in Ann Arbor. If MSU can control game flow, and minimize mistakes (missed tackles, drops, assignment blunders and turnovers), the Spartans could very well dictate the pace of this game, and build a lead that this limited Michigan offense will struggle to come back from.

MSU won the time of possession battle last week against Iowa to the tune of 39:44 to just 20:16 for the Hawkeyes, a 19:28 advantage.

This iteration of Michigan football wins games nearly identical to Iowa. The Wolverines rarely pass the ball, (average 23.57 pass attempts per game) and they struggle when they do throw it (ranking last in the Big Ten and 129th out of 133 FBS teams in passing yards per game at 128.3). U-M performs best when the combiantion of running backs Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards can wear down the opposition with sustained drives, and the occasional chunk run. Michigan State's defense showed its ability to shut down Iowa's running game last week — outside of just one long run — by holding star running back Kaleb Johnson to under 100 rushing yards.

This feels like a who-strikes-first bout, and if MSU can get out early and work the clock with a lead, Michigan's lack of explosive playmaking could force some errant passes, and swing the momentum in the Spartan' favor.

Run The D*mn Ball

The most productive run game has won 48 of the last 54 games in the Michigan State-Michigan series.

Both rushing attacks have been suspect this season, with Michigan State finally flashing some promise last week against Iowa, gaining a season-high 212 rushing yards on the ground. MSU quarterback Aidan Chiles found moments to utilize his legs with 51 rushing yards. Chiles being a rushing threat keeps the defense honest, having to account for him taking off, and in turn, creating some space for running backs Kay'ron Lynch-Adams (a team-high 86 rushing yards last week) and Nate Carter (49 rushing yards and a touchdown versus Iowa).

It also appears the young Spartan offensive line is perhaps turning a corner, after last week's impressive showing on the ground against a physical Iowa defensive front.

This game often is about who can control the tempo, and win the ground game.

Michigan averages 180.3 rushing yards a game on 4.8 yards per attempt, and Mullings is a bowling ball, averaging 6.1 yards per rush.

Yet, last week the Wolverines averaged just 3.0 yards per rush on 38 attempts at Illinois, and the week before, outside a 40-yard run from Edwards, averaged a mundane 3.75 yards per rush on 37 attempts at Washington.

Without a passing threat, you may say the response from opposing teams to Michigan’s “run the damn ball” slogan may be, “You promise?”

Disdain bordering on Hatred

Hate may be a strong word, but if you flip back to the pages of MSU history, specifically the Mark Dantonio years, those guys genuinely hated — or at least strongly disliked — the Wolverines. It really goes back much, much further than that, too.

Some have called for a dialing down of the rhetoric, and I believe with Jonathan Smith and Sherronne Moore at the helm now, that's likely to happen. But, there's bad blood here, and I think veterans like cornerback Chuck Brantley, Maverick Hansen and Darius Snow will educate the Spartan neophyte on just how deep one must dig to come out on top in this rivalry.

It's not tangible, there's no Next-Gen analytics, it’s purely an indescribable gear one must reach, that only exists in the vacuum of this game.

Smith spoke earlier this week about big this game is for the Spartans. Make no mistake about, this is an important one for Moore and Michigan, too, and one the Wolverines do not want to lose, especially given the team's current losing streak. This rivalry is intense.

GAME INFO: 

-Date/Kickoff Time: Saturday, Oct. 26 7:40 p.m. Eastern Time

-TV Channel/Streaming: Big Ten Network

-TV Announcers: - Jeff Levering (play-by-play), Jake Butt (analyst), Brooke Fletcher (sidelines)

Radio: Spartan Media Network |

Play-by-Play: George Blaha

Analyst: Jason Strayhorn

Sidelines: Jehuu Caulcrick

Broadcast Host: Will Tieman

-Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan

-Stadium: Michigan Stadium (107,601)

-Weather Expectations: 47 degrees at kickoff, wind five miles per hour, with gusts up to seven miles per hour.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

I haven't seen too many Michigan fans who thinks the Wolverines will win this game. Now I think that is primarily an emotional hedge, that somehow "not caring" would diminish the impact of a Spartan win. Many vocal U-M fans appear to be down on this team given the Wolverines' performance over the past two weeks, and on the season as a whole.

But make no mistake, MSU is the underdog here, at "The Big House," where despite waning interest in this season from Wolverine fans, will undoubtedly be a loud and hostile environment under the lights. This is likely going to be tough battle throughout for both teams.

All that said, I personally think the Paul Bunyan Trophy returns to East Lansing, for several reasons.

One, I’m not sure what Michigan flat-out does better than Michigan State. Do the Wolverines run the ball better? They sure run more often, and they do have a higher yards per carry average (4.8 to 4.1), so yes, perhaps. But being one-dimensional squeezes your strengths, pulling them to the mean, and from what I saw last week, it seems like the Spartans' run game is maybe ready to pop. That said, the Michigan run defense is tough, too, only allowing 3.3 yards per carry. However, the lack of success on offense often puts too much pressure on Michigan's defense and that is hard to maintain throughout 60 minutes of physical game play.

Secondly, Michigan’s passing game is a non-threat, and outside of tight end Colston Loveland, the team lacks a go-to wide receiver.

Lastly, even though this defense is still stacked with NFL talent — Jaishawn Brahma, Will Johnson (whose status for this weekend's game is still uncertain), Mason Graham, Josaiah Stewart, Kenneth Grant, etc — the results have been subpar, likely because the offense can't stay on the field and keep the defense rested enough.

While ranked No. 10 according to SP+, the Michigan pass defense ranks third to last in the Big Ten (234.14 passing yards allowed per game), and the Wolverines' highly-touted run defense is trending the wrong direction after getting gashed for 187 yards last week to the Fighting Illini.

I think this game is more about what Michigan State does, because the Wolverines are frankly a known entity, featuring a solid run game, limited passing attack and a bevy of blitz packages defensively.

The deciding factor is simple. Is Michigan State the team we saw last week, full of young talent ascending before our eyes, or the team that turned the ball over multiple times per game, excessively flagged and prone to compounding mistakes? The team who wins this game will likely win the turnover battle, and as mentioned, likely the ground attack.

All in all, 61 new Spartans will be introduced to one of college football's great rivalries, in one of the most iconic stadiums in the world.

It will be loud, full of vitriol and an intensity only found in sports. Jonathan Smith may go into Ann Arbor merely having learned of this rivalry, but he’ll walk out baptized in victory or vengeance.

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