If you only looked at the box score last Saturday, you may think Michigan State is welcoming Indiana to town this week coming off a big rivalry win and all the confidence in the world.

But, box scores don't win games — out-scoring your opponent does. Last Saturday in Ann Arbor, the Spartans fell short, 24-17.

At this point, all the wounds need to have been licked, as the focus now turns to No. 13 Indiana, for a 3:30 p.m. Saturday showdown for the Old Brass Spittoon.

Indiana is yet another challenge in what has been one of the nation's most difficult schedules for the Spartans, as first-year Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti has his team off to their first 8-0 start since 1967.

The Hoosiers have been led by transfer senior quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who despite having surgery on a broken thumbnail, Cignetti announced will get the start Saturday.

Rourke's play has been down right flawless, throwing for 1,941 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just three interceptions, with a Big Ten best 91.8 quarterback rating. The Hoosiers have seven players with 12 or more carries this season, with eight players scoring a rushing touchdown as well. This Indiana offense is inventive, disciplined, and willing to break teams down through the air or in the trenches.

Indiana currently sits as an eight point favorite (ESPN BET).

Let's take a look at Saturday's matchup —

Michigan State:

-Record: 4-4 (2-3 in Big Ten)

-Offense: 364.9 YPG, 227.88 passing YPG, 137.0 rushing YPG

-Defense: 315.9 YPG, 186.25 passing YPG, 129.6 rushing YPG

-Third-down offense: 42.57%

-Third-down defense: 44.44%

-Points per game: 21.00

-Points per game allowed: 22.25

Indiana :

-Record: 8-0 (5-0 Big Ten)

-Offense: 487.6 YPG, 287.00 passing YPG, 200.6 rushing YPG

-Defense: 269.5 YPG, 183.38 passing YPG, 86.1 rushing YPG

-Third-down offense: 54.02%

-Third-down defense: 33.01%

-Points per game: 46.50

-Points per game allowed: 14.13

All-Time Series: MSU leads, 50-18-2

Series in East Lansing: MSU leads, 26-8-1

Series in Big Ten Games: MSU leads, 47-15-1

Last Meeting: MSU 24, IU 21 (2023 in Bloomington)

Current Series Streak: 1 (MSU)

If you were hoping for change, well, change is here. MSU’s “Thy Shadows” all-black uniforms will make their season debut Saturday.

WIN RED-ZONE BATTLE

When it comes to red zone efficiency this season, these two teams could not be on further ends of the spectrum.

Indiana has kicked (and made) five field goals this season, and the reason the Hoosiers kick so few is because when they get in the red zone, they almost exclusively reach the end zone.

In the 47 times they've gotten in the red zone this season, they've scored 39 touchdowns, only failing twice to score points.

For MSU, its red zone trips have not been as fruitful.

In the 30 times the Spartans have reached the red zone this season, they’ve managed only twelve touchdowns, and 9 field goals, not scoring points on nine of 30 trips, which is the fifth-worst rate in the nation.

A momentum-swinging field goal hold for MSU, and finding the end zone are non-negotiable if MSU wants to keep pace with Indiana.

CHILES STACKING PROGRESS

Chiles' fumble late in the 2nd quarter last week was a real momentum blow for the Spartans, but quietly, Chiles is making progressing week-to-week, and the numbers back it up.

Chiles, for consecutive weeks, passed for career-highs in completion percentage, 73.3% against the Hawkeyes, followed by 73.6% against the Wolverines. He had a pair of turnovers in each game, one interception and the aforementioned fumble.

He is not all the way there yet, but he is heading in the right direction, and Saturday is yet another test against a disciplined defense that has forced 16 turnovers and only allowed one team to score over 24 points in a game this season (Maryland, 28 points).

Look for MSU to mix in play action with pounding the rock, along with Chiles using his athleticism to roll out in space, take shots, or tuck it and run.

NEED MORE PRESSURE

MSU has one sack in Big Ten play — no typo, a single sack — and that was nearly two whole months ago against Maryland. Rourke is too dangerous to let sit in the pocket without pressure.

MSU’s defense has been serviceable, but its inability to get home has been surprising, given Joe Rossi’s track record at Minnesota and defensive success.

Indiana runs an offense similar to Oregon — quick passes in space, and lets its skill-position players make plays.

With Jordan Turner out for the first half of this game due to his targeting penalty last Saturday, Jordan Hall, Wayne Mathews III, Cal Haladay, and company will need to demonstrate gap discipline, and at some point in this game, get Rourke down in the backfield.

-Date/Kickoff Time: Saturday, November 2nd at 3:33 p.m. Eastern Time

TV/Streaming/Mobile: Peacock | PeacockTV.com

Announcers: Paul Burmeister (play-by-play), Colt McCoy (analyst), Zora Stephenson (sidelines)

Radio: Spartan Media Network

Play-by-Play: George Blaha

Analyst: Jason Strayhorn

Sidelines: Jehuu Caulcrick

Broadcast Host: Will Tieman

-Location: East Lansing, Michigan

-Stadium: Spartan Stadium (74,866)

-Weather Expectations: 57 degrees at kick-off, wind 2-5mph, gusts up to 7 mph.

Last week I made the case that Michigan doesn't unequivocally do anything better than Michigan State (run, pass, defend).

This week is a different story, Indiana, at every level, has outperformed MSU statistically this season. But, who you play matters, and in that context, Indiana still has to prove they are worth its No. 13 ranking in college football.

So, what will it take for MSU to get back in the win column? Touchdowns, and probably a few of them. MSU has shown it can move the ball down the field with efficiency and in a variety of ways. Reaching pay dirt has been a problem, though.

With Chiles gaining confidence and chemistry with his receiving core, this could be the week this offense may take that next step (with a whole new staff, quarterback, and 61 new players, progress is a series of many, many steps).

This will be the most difficult environment Indiana has had to play in yet (by far), and you have a stadium packed with fans who, frankly, are looking to blow off steam, and a team equally as ready to prove they are not to be taken lightly.

Much of the chatter in Spartan land is the optimism that MSU will pull off the upset. Despite a disappointing loss last week, MSU is playing its best overall football at this moment. Cut down on the mistakes (flags, turnovers, etc), don't settle for field goals, and the Spartans first win against a top 15 opponent since the Peach Bowl on Dec. 30, 2021, is well within reach.

Enjoy getting home before Midnight, Spartans.

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