I must admit that coming into Saturday's game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, I was a bit pessimistic about the game. I was nervous despite Michigan State's flawless record in conference play, despite the metrics and the large Vegas spread, and even despite the injury report which showed Rutgers center Emmanuel Ogbole as out for the season and freshman star point guard Dylan Harper as questionable with a twisted ankle.
The sources of my pessimism were varied. First, Madison Square Gardens has been a house of horrors for Tom Izzo and the Spartans. Prior to Saturday, Izzo's record in the building was just 4-13. Second, Rutgers is a well-coached, rugged team with two potential top-five NBA draft picks in Harper and in forward Ace Bailey.
Third, there is an odd, but documented trend that Izzo-coached teams tend to show a slump in performance at the end of January and early February. Saturday's game was located squarely in the center of the "Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle."
Despite my pessimism, the Spartans did the same thing that they have been doing since Thanksgiving. After a slow start, Michigan State took the lead with 12:45 left to play in the first half and never gave it up. The grit and depth of the Spartans ground the Scarlet Knights into submission. With 10:51 to play the lead reached double-digits.
While some Spartan sloppiness and a flurry of three pointers from Rutgers in the final two minutes made the final score closer than it should have been, the end result was never really in doubt. Michigan State is now 17-2 overall, 8-0 in conference play and undefeated for over two full months.
How did Michigan State pull out the win in New York City and what are the implications for the Big Ten race? Let's answer both of those questions, starting with the four factors analysis of the win in the Garden.
Four Factor's Analysis of Michigan State's win Over Rutgers
Figure 1 below provides an analysis for Michigan State's 81-74 win versus Rutgers at Madison Square Garden on Jan. 26, 2025.
Why did Michigan State win?
Shooting was the statistic that made the difference. Michigan State outperformed Rutgers in effective field goal percentage by 12 percentage points. A deeper look at the box score shows that the Spartans were able to get into the paint and score or get fouled. Michigan State scored 42 points in the paint and 22 points from the free throw line.
However, the advantage in shooting helped to disguise a few other potential concerns. Michigan State outrebounded Rutgers by 10 and had a better overall rebound rate on both ends, but the Scarlet Knights scored 11 second chance points off of 15 offensive rebounds.
Michigan State also lost the turnover battle 15-to-6. As a result of the rebounding and turnovers, Rutgers got off 12 more shots from the field. But the Scarlet Knights' lack of efficiency cost them.
Both teams shot more free throws than usual due to a quick whistle, and the Spartans held a small edge in this category.
Big Ten Race Update
Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 27.