It goes without saying that Michigan State's trip to the west coast did not go as planned. The Spartans boarded the plane to California with a perfect Big Ten record, but returned home with back-to-back losses to USC and UCLA. The two-game lead in the Big Ten standings has completely evaporated.

While this mid-season slump is frustrating for Michigan State fans, it is also a staple of the Tom Izzo program. For whatever reason, the end of January and especially early February are the "Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle." It is a documented fact that the Spartans tend to underachieve during this part of the season, but tend to finish the season strong after that. So far, the 2024-25 season is no different.

With just over half of the Big Ten season now in the books, it is time to get down to business. What went wrong in California and what does it mean for the Spartans' chances to win a Big Ten title?

Let's jump right into the analysis.

Figure 1 below provides a summary for Michigan State's 63-61 loss at UCLA on Feb. 4, 2025 from the point of view of the Four Factors.

Why did Michigan State lose to UCLA?

Based on the raw shooting numbers, the Spartan were able to carve out a narrow advantage. Michigan State had a better effective field goal percentage (42.5% to 40.8%) and a higher free throw rate (35.9 to 31.7). The Spartans also hit two more free throws (16-to-14) on the same number of attempts.

Michigan State had a big advantage in rebounding rate (42.4% to 20.5%) and raw rebounds (45 to 27). Despite the fact the Spartans shot well below their season average, these advantages should have been enough to secure victory.

But in this game, it was turnovers that won the day. Michigan State turned the ball over on 25% of their possession (16 turnovers) compared to just 4.7% (three turnovers) for the Bruins.

This insane gap more than made up for Michigan State's edge in offensive rebounds (14-to-8) and resulted in UCLA getting up seven more shots from the field. This higher volume of shooting allowed the Bruins to make up for their relatively poor shooting.

A turnover rate of less than 5% from UCLA was an extreme statistical anomaly. This is, by far, the lowest figure for UCLA this season and the lowest for any Michigan State opponent since 2022. If the Bruins would have turned the ball over two or three more times, it might have been the Spartans who won the game instead.

If we combine this anomaly with the fact that Holloman, Richardson, and Fidler were a combined 0-for-10 from three in the game, it is seems likely that good old fashioned bad luck had as much or more to do with the loss as Kohler failing to kick out his final rebound of the game or Akins missing a jump shot at the buzzer.

Table 1 shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings following the action of Thursday night (Feb. 6).

The Spartans are now a half-game behind Purdue (10-2) and are tied with Michigan (9-2) in the standings. The three teams are even in the loss column and in the plus/minus metric at +4.

The loss to UCLA also dropped Michigan State to third place in conference strength of resume (+2.41) behind Purdue (+2.92) and Michigan (+2.65). This is due to the Spartans' slightly easier schedule to open Big Ten play relative to the Boilermakers and Wolverines.

Looking ahead, Purdue has slightly over a one-game lead in expected conference wins at 15.33. Michigan State is sitting at 14.21, barely ahead of Michigan at 14.17 wins. Wisconsin (13.41), UCLA (12.79), and Maryland (12.67) round out the rest of the top six.

Table 2 below shows how these expected win totals translate into odds to at least share the Big Ten title.

The Spartans' loss to UCLA, coupled with Purdue's win at Iowa on Tuesday night, has given the Boilermakers a lead in the odds to win at least a share of the Big Ten at 62.6%. The odds for Purdue to win a solo title are now at 40%.

Michigan State's odds to hang a banner have slipped to 29.1%, which is a dead heat with Michigan (28.5%). The Wisconsin Badgers (10.3%) are also making an interesting upward push in the odds table. The Badgers have officially entered dark horse territory. UCLA (4.4%) and Maryland (2.9%) remain long shot contenders.

Are we turn to the back nine of the Big Ten schedule, it is clear that the final four weeks of the season are going to be a dog fight. Before the trip out west, it appeared that the Spartans might be able to build up a big enough lead in the standings that they could coast to a conference title.

Now, it's game on.

But that is not necessarily a bad thing.

If Michigan State is going to win a Big Ten title, they are going to have to earn it. They are going to need to keep improving and find another gear of performance. Whether the Spartans end up hanging a banner at the end of the regular season or not, this type of pressure will pay dividends when in comes to the Big Dance looming in March.

Furthermore, the two losses in California mean that Izzo and the Spartans have a chance to both tie and break Bobby Knight's Big Ten conference win record in front of the home crowd of the Breslin Center. The record-breaking win could come against Bobby Knight's former team, the Indiana Hoosiers.

The odds shown below in Table 2 suggest that the Spartans' path to a Big Ten title is an uphill one. However, a deeper look at the data paints a more optimistic picture.

First, lets take a look at the relative difficulty of each teams' remaining Big Ten schedule.

There has been a lot of discussion about the relative weakness of the early portion of Michigan State's schedule. The criticism did have some merit.

Going forward, Michigan State has the most difficult remaining conference slate. An average top 25-caliber reference team would only be expected to win 45% of the games remaining on the Spartans' schedule.

But Michigan has a schedule that is just a fraction of a game (0.05) easier. Moreover, Purdue has the fourth most difficult remaining schedule.

Critically, Purdue has to travel to East Lansing in the one and only head-to-head matchup with Michigan State this year. Of the three current most likely Big Ten contenders, none of them have a significant advantage in schedule.

The reason that Purdue has such as big lead in odds is that they have a notable lead in Kenpom efficiency margin which translates into slightly better odds that Purdue will win games going forward. The Spartans and Wolverines have very similar efficiency margins. But the current reality might be a bit different.

For some additional hints as to what is to come, Figure 3 below gives the performance of each Big Ten team against the spread in conference play.