If there is one thing that I have learned over the years of following sports and Michigan State sports specifically, it is this: Winning is a heck of a lot more fun that losing.

The first few days of February and the trip out west were not fun. Losing to Indiana on a day that should have been a celebration in the Breslin Center was especially unfun. The first 10 minutes of Saturday's game at Illinois were not exactly a picnic either.

But the Spartans outscored the Fighting Illini 64-to-34 in the final 28 minutes of the game to win going away. In the process, MSU helped Tom Izzo finally break the all-time Big Ten conference win record.

More importantly, the Spartans won with energy, toughness, and efficiency. In other words, they once again looked like the group that went undefeated in the months of December and January.

MSU looked like a team that could win a championship. If it can keep this up, MSU might just help Tom Izzo tie yet another important record with his eleventh Big Ten regular season title. Only Bobby Knight and Purdue's Ward Lambert currently sit above Izzo's 10 league titles in the record books with 11 each.

How did the Spartans prevail, and what did the weekend's results mean for the Big Ten race? Let's start with a four factors analysis of the win in Champaign.

Figure 1 below provides an analysis for Michigan State's 79-65 win at Illinois on Feb. 16, 2025.

Why did Michigan State win?

The Spartans carved out an advantage, or at least a push, in every phase of the game. The Spartans did a great job of taking care of the ball and outcompeted an elite rebounding team. In terms of raw numbers, MSU committed four fewer turnovers (7-to-11) and grabbed five more rebounds (41-to-36), including a two-rebound edge on the offensive boards (14-to-12).

As a result, the Spartans were able to put up five more shots than the Illini (68-to-63). When this statistic is combined with MSU's close to 10-percentage point advantage in effective field goal percentage (52%-to-44%), it translates into a double-digit win on the road.

The only area where Michigan State underachieved was in free throw rate, but this was a push. Both teams shot just 13 free throws as the officials did not call very many fouls, especially in the first half. On a day when the Spartans missed more freebies than usual (shooting just 61.5%), it was maybe a good night to have a slow whistle.

Table 1 below shows the update enhanced Big Ten standings as of Monday, February 17.

Michigan State was able to atone for the home lose to Indiana with a road game to bring the Spartan's plus/minus rating back up to +4. Unfortunately, Michigan was able to eke out yet another close win at Ohio State on Sunday to move a full game ahead of the Spartans in the standings and two games ahead in plus/minus.

Purdue and Wisconsin remain a game behind the Spartans in the loss column with UCLA and Maryland two games back.

Table 2 gives the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Michigan (15.58 wins) now holds a full game lead in expected wins over Wisconsin (14.57). The Spartans (14.22) are currently in third place, just ahead of Purdue (14.16). Maryland (13.54) and UCLA (13.26) round out the top six.

Table 3 shows how these projected wins translate into odds to win or share the regular season Big Ten title.