Saturday's contest between the Michigan State Spartans and the Washington Huskies is one that many had circled on their calendars for the last several months. It is also one that is hard to wrap my head around.
For the players, it was clear after speaking to some of them during fall camp that they were unhappy with how the Spartans played in Seattle in last year's 39-28 loss (which was not as close as the final score implies). Defensive lineman Derrick Harmon implied that this year's game against Washington meant almost as much to him as the rivalry game against Michigan (but not quite, obviously).
For the fans, a scan of the schedule over the summer suggested that the home game against Washington was set up to be the first real test for the 2023 version of the Green and White. The first two games against Central Michigan and Richmond would be a chance to work out the kinks. The third game would be the chance to learn how good (or bad) the Spartans are.
All that was before the events of Sunday, September 10 when head coach Mel Tucker was suspended without pay under the dark cloud of sexual harassment allegations. The circumstances and emotional context around this Saturday's game are now drastically different.
The opponent for this Saturday also looks a bit better than expected as well. The Huskies are coming to town with an offense that ranks No. 2 in the FBS in yards per play (9.20) and No. 1 in passing yards per game (472). Oh, and did I mention that for the first time in history, alcohol will be on sale at Spartan Stadium?
With Tucker currently out, Harlon Barnett stepping in as acting head coach, and Mark Dantonio returning to the sidelines (or perhaps the booth) as associate head coach in a potentially therapeutic advisory role, there is chance to hit the reset button from the coaching point of view. It provides a chance to get back to basics, even if fans are unlikely to see much of a difference from a strategic point of view. Barnett and Dantonio are likely to provide a much-needed calm and stabilizing presence for the program.
But the biggest wild card on Saturday is the state of mind of the Michigan State players. I believe that this game will be won or lost based on what happens between the ears. More than usual, this game will be more about psychology than physicality, which makes it extremely difficult to predict.
Earlier in the week, acting head coach Harlon Barnett said all the right things. He talked about resilience, determination, focus and playing through adversity. He said that he had a plan to talk to every player on the roster, and every coach, trainer, and support staff member, in a one-on-one setting. These mini therapy sessions are certainly a good thing.
However, once that ball is kicked off on Saturday afternoon, it is anyone's guess how the players will react. There is a chance that some players will compete with extreme focus and energy, either to play for their embattled coach or to show that they are not defined by his selfish actions. There is also the chance that the distraction of the week will weigh on the psyches of the players, in which case this game could go very, very badly.
This weekend's game is all about basic human psychology, and there are few things in this world that are harder to predict than the emotional response of 18-to-23-year-olds to this type of adversity. All we can do is sit back (or lie down) on our couches (or stadium benches), have a drink, and see how this all plays out.
Michigan State Prediction
This Saturday will mark the fifth meeting in history between the Michigan State Spartans and the Washington Huskies. Michigan State won the first and only meeting so far in East Lansing in the fall of 1969. But since then, Washington has won three-straight games in 1970, 1997 and 2022. Two of those last three games were played in Seattle, while the other game, in 1997, was played in the Aloha Bowl in Honolulu.
Michigan State is currently a 16.5-point underdog, which is up just slightly from the opening line of 16 points. This spread corresponds to a 13% chance that the Spartans emerge victorious. The over/under for the game opened at 58 points and has since drifted down to 55.5 points.
Some casinos had this game on the board as early as May with spreads closer to 10 to 12 points. The Mel Tucker news broke right around the time the oddsmakers were finalizing the spreads for the week, so it is unclear how much the current turmoil in East Lansing impacted the opening line. If it did, the experts in Las Vegas do not expect the events of the week to provide any kind of psychological edge for the Green and White.
But my cold, emotionless computer is telling a different story. My computer is not predicting a Spartan win, but it does suggest that the game will be closer than the current Las Vegas line. My official prediction is Washington 33, Michigan State 23.
It is certainly possible that the Spartans will be flat and will get completely blown out. It is also possible that Washington is so talented that the mindset of the Michigan State players will be irrelevant.
But I honestly expect the Spartans to play well, if not very well. I also expect the 2,000-mile trip across three times zones will dull the sharpness of the Huskies just a little. Michigan State has an all-time record of 23-6-1 (77%) against current Pac-12 teams in games played in East Lansing. When the games are played on the West Coast, the record is just 13-19 (41%). The travel does matter. But will it matter enough?
I do not expect that the Spartans will win on Saturday, but at the same time I would not be shocked by a victory.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Three, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differential.