I think that Jase Richardson will have a LONG NBA career regardless of when it begins, and, when I look at my NBA draft board, I don't realistically see more than ~30 guys in the conversation to be drafted over him.

I think he will be a first round pick if he declares and stays in the draft this season. That being said, I think he is a flawed prospect right now from an NBA perspective, and that if he does declare and stay, and get drafted -- as I think he will -- he will be giving himself a much more difficult path to long-term success than if he returns for at least one more season (I would bet that he only really needs one more season).

As I evaluate him now, from an NBA perspective, I think he will need at least one G-League season, which is not the end of the world, but indicative of his limitations.

Strengths:

- He has *incredible* feel and touch, which oozes through every game film.

- Take a look at his mid-range game: he can beat his man off the dribble at the collegiate level, can pull-up, uses his step-back, plays off of two feet with confidence using his pivot to get to his turn-around, and has a strong floater game.

- He is a good finisher at the rim.

- His 3pt shooting is solid (more on that below) from his spot-up catch-and-shoot, and under certain contexts off the dribble.

- Maybe more importantly, his free-throw percentage is terrific.

- The film is supported by all of his percentages, which tell a real story: mid-range (37-91, 41%), free-throws (102-122, 83.6%), rim finishing (60-87, 69%), and three-point shooting (47-114, 41%).

- Beyond his individual scoring ability, which he showcased consistently all season despite a low usage rate (~20% of all possessions he was on the court) and only playing 61% of available minutes, Jase Richardson is already a really good, natural play-maker, a solid ball-handler, and a solid defender (though not elite -- this is one of his biggest problems if he is getting drafted as a SG), and generally plays with extremely high IQ, composure, vision, and a clear understanding of when to make plays for himself and when to play-make for others.

All of these reasons are likely why he gets drafted in the first round, and possibly in the lottery.

So why, despite all of these strengths, am I still a bit reluctant to lock him in as a sure-fire, can't miss lottery guy?

Size and role, mainly.

Richardson is 6'2" and, despite having what I would guess is a roughly +6 index (differential of height-to-wingspan -- i.e. Richardson looks like he has a roughly 6'8" wingspan (maybe more)), this is a real challenge for him given that he does not obviously project as a point-guard who you turn an NBA team over to.

Richardson played the point at times this season, but those opportunities became fewer and further between as the season progressed because Fears and Holloman did such a strong job. While he did not get a ton of reps being the main offensive initiator, he thrived as a secondary creator and a late-clock offensive bail-out.

He has the skill to become a point guard, but how long will he take to get into that role and become comfortable handling all of those decisions and facing the full brunt of the defense's attention on every possession? I am dubious that he will be ready for that kind of role any time in the next year or two when operating within an NBA organization.

He is not a Darius Garland, Ja Morant, Cade Cunningham, Amen Thompson, Scoot Henderson, Jalen Suggs, Lamelo Ball, Trae Young, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or De'Aaron Fox type of player. He does not have that level of skill or athleticism or production, and yet, if he is drafted as a lead guard in the lottery, then that will be the expectation that will be placed on him.

The closest players to Richardson in terms of physical ability, size, and playing this role are Landry Shamet, Jevon Carter, Derrick White, and, in the best case, Jalen Brunson. But every single one of these players came into the NBA as upperclassmen with significantly better physical maturity, and having taken on much bigger offensive loads for multiple years.

There is a different archetype that teams might view Richardson as fitting -- a hybrid off-guard, the kind of role that he played this season. Recent examples include Brandin Podziemski, TyTy Washington, Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride, and Ty Jerome.

The challenge for Richardson, from an NBA perspective, is that he will have to defend either point guards, which he might be able to just-about survive (he has quickness and length, but his lack of real burst may limit his real ability to hang with NBA point guards, or he will have to defend NBA shooting guards, who often range from 6'5" to 6'7", which his length will help him with, but will often see him at a significant physical disadvantage.

Maybe more importantly, Richardson has not developed the ability to really shoot the three-point ball off of movement, especially off of sprinting around screens to hit catch-and-shoot shots with balance and strength -- this is a crucial skill for guards in the NBA, and one that will seriously limit his role until he develops it as a serious skill.

I think this skill development is in his future, but if it takes a year or two longer than planned, he runs into problems as he heads into extension discussions.

Jase Richardson is a TERRIFIC player, but is he a lotto pick right now?

I don't see it.

Could he be drafted in the top-15?

Yes!

This draft is really weak outside of the top-10 or so.

As the NBA draft order stands right now, there are some good fits for him in the late-lottery and middle of the first round (Miami, Atlanta, and Minnesota are really clear good fits for him).

Should he come back to MSU?

In my opinion, yes.

It took Max Christie three years to break through in the NBA, and the reason why players like Podziemski, Brunson, and, as of this season, Jerome, have been able to stick in the NBA is because they came in with a complete set of skills that have allowed them to manufacture a role that their given franchise needed them to fill.

Richardson has *this* ability already -- the ability to fit into a role, but in the NBA this process is far more challenging if you do not have the full array of skills to make up for lack of size.

Why come back?

Jase has shown a ton of hybrid-guard potential, but his scoring efficiency has come in large part due to teams NOT prioritizing him on the scouting report. He's never really gotten the defense shaded towards him, which was bizarre given how effective he was all season.

If I were him, I would suggest following the Brunson-Podziemski-Carter-McBride-Jerome path -- stay for another year or two and REALLY become a better off-the-dribble and off-screen movement three-point shooter, more physically robust, and show that he can maintain solid efficiency at a higher volume and usage rate.