We need a vibe shift for this one. Yes, typically we do three things we want to see and two key stats, but the funk of last week is lingering too long. We need to change something up, so this is the best I can do here.
This week, we are going with three key stats, two things we want to see and one best bet.
Let’s get ready for another big game at Spartan Stadium as Michigan State hosts Indiana and see if we can rally from our first Best Bet loss of the season.
3 Key Stats
Five
That’s how many field goals Indiana has attempted this year, which is an onion of a stat. There are PLENTY of layers to this one.
First off, they’ve made all five attempts. Great. Not the point.
The thesis here is that the Hoosiers are elite at scoring points in multiples of six. Not three. Perhaps you already knew that the Hoosiers were second in the nation (and first in the Big Ten) at 46.5 points per game. Only Miami (FL.) scores more points per game (46.8). However, did you know they have the fifth-best touchdown rate in the red zone at 83%? That’s 39 red zone touchdowns on a nation-high 47 red zone trips.
Look, I get it, Indiana hasn’t had the hardest schedule, you might say. But, no matter what eight teams it has played, those are indisputably incredible numbers.
Quarterback Kurtis Rourke is so efficient and smart with the ball. Indiana stole the Spartans' blueprint of getting a great Wake Forest running back transfer in the portal with Justice Ellison. The Hoosiers' offensive line grades in the top-20 for both run and pass blocking, per Pro Football Focus.
Not to give everyone the spooks on Halloween, but this is a scary offense.
Zero
That’s how many points the Indiana defense has allowed in the first quarter. I KNOW, MORE FUN STATS FOR SPARTAN FANS!
The Hoosiers have a top-10 run defense at opposing yards per carry, allowing just 3.04 yards. They also lead the Big Ten in sacks, checking in at 24 total. The Hoosiers' red zone defense is also middle of the pack in the country, but apparently that's all you need to be to stop the Spartans in the red zone. It’s fine.
Now, Michigan State is no stranger to seeing a strong defensive front, having just done so the last game against Michigan. The Spartans were able to move the ball on the ground pretty well for the second consecutive game after starting with a below-average attack. Quarterback Aidan Chiles will also certainly be the most athletic quarterback they Hoosiers have seen this year.
It’s not a hopeless battle by any means, but certainly will be a tough one.
15
That’s how many fourth down conversion attempts Indiana has this year – fourth most in the conference. None of these are “desperation at the end of games, we need to go for it no matter what” attempts, obviously.
This stat is highlighted because IU head coach Curt Cignetti and company are aggressive when it comes to game management. If MSU gets a stop on third-and-3 in the red zone, don’t sit down and expect the field goal unit to come out on fourth down. If you are the Spartans, stay on your feet and get ready for another huge stop.
2 Things We Want To See
Pour on the play action
Last week’s game plan mostly worked. MSU doubled what Michigan usually gives up on the ground and running back Nathan Carter had his best game as a Spartan.
The issue is that the Spartans hardly capitalized on it with play-action passing plays. According to Pro Football Focus, MSU attempted a season-low seven play-action pass attempts against the Wolverines. It was also efficient as Chiles went 6-for-7 with 56 yards on such plays. They set the bait with the run game and didn’t go for the payoff enough.
If this run game for MSU is suddenly real – and it sure looks like it the last two games against good defenses – then there is no other choice but mash that “play-action” button even more. It might seem like a simple demand, but that’s because I think it is a no-brainer route to getting moving on offense.
Commit to stopping the run
I see a lot of Oregon when I see Indiana’s offense in the sense the Hoosiers spread out the field and go with shorter throws. In the first half of that Oregon, the Spartans tried to batten down the hatches and limit the yards after catch in the passing game. One issue…they let up nearly 10 yards per run because Cal Haladay and the linebackers struggled.
In the second half, the Spartans brought more guys in closer to limit the run damage, but it was too late. I would love to see MSU go with the same approach it did for the second half of that Oregon game, but that will also be easier said than done. Just like how the Spartans really missed linebacker Jordan Hall for the Oregon game, the Spartans will miss the presence of fellow linebacker Jordan Turner in the first half due to his targeting penalty last week.
1 Best Bet
MSU +7.5, over/under 51.5
I’m going back to the same well we drank out of for the Ohio State and Oregon games. Those games had totals north of 50 and we said MSU’s defense is good enough to tighten up in the red zone to limit the damage. On top of all that, can anyone really blame me for not trusting the MSU red zone offense to score enough either?
We are going to the land down under again.
Pick: Under
Record: 6-1
