Michigan State (4-5 overall, 2-4 in Big Ten play) travels to Champaign to play Illinois (6-3 overall, 3-3 in Big Ten play) on Saturday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time/1:30 p.m. Central Time, with the game airing live on FS1. Both teams are coming of a bye week, but riding two-game losing streaks.
Ahead of the matchup, Spartans Illustrated spoke with Doug Bucshon of Orange and Blue News — Rivals' home for all things Illinois — to learn more about the Fighting Illini.
What is the current state of the Illinois football program? How is head coach Bret Bielema perceived by the fan base? Why have the Illini struggled on defense? Doug answers these questions and more.
To read my responses to Doug's questions about Michigan State, click here.
1. At 6-3 overall and 3-3 in conference play, and after two-straight losses, what is the state of the program for Illinois currently? What does the team do well and what does it need to improve upon?
Doug: Illinois exceeded expectations early on. Most preseason prognosticators saw it as a borderline bowl team, so with a 6-3 record, it certainly appears that head coach Bret Bielema has steadily elevated the program.
That said, this season hangs on the final three games against evenly-matched teams in Michigan State, Rutgers and Northwestern. If the Illini can run the table, it will be a very successful season at 9-3.
Illinois isn’t great at any one thing. It ranks in the middle of the pack or lower in most statistical categories. The Fighting Illini do rank fifth in the conference in turnover margin, and takeaways played a big role in the close games that they’ve won, including overtime wins against Nebraska and Purdue.
Offensive line play has been sketchy at times, especially the pass protection. They haven’t consistently given quarterback Luke Altmyer a clean pocket, yielding a league-worst 3.11 sacks per game.
2. How has quarterback Tyler Altmyer played for the Fighting Illini this year, and what do the Spartans need to do to shut down the passing game? On the ground, it looks like Illinois has relied on running back Josh McCray following the injury to Kaden Feagin. Pat Bryant is the Illini's leading wide receiver with 582 yards and seven touchdowns. What does McCray and Bryant bring to the offense?
Doug: Altmyer had a great start to the season — a big reason why Illinois was competitive. He has tailed off of late, though, and that’s been a factor in the two-game skid. As I mentioned above, the Illinois pass protection has broken down, and Altmyer often struggles with his decision making when under pressure. That’s the key for MSU. Make Altmyer uncomfortable.
Bret Bielema teams will always want to establish the running game, so expect more of the same on Saturday. After the injury to Feagin, Illinois has employed running back by committee with McCray, Aidan Laughery and freshman Cal’il Valentine all getting touches.
McCray is a north-south power back. Laughery is shiftier and has break-away speed. Valentine is a quick-cut speed back who can bounce runs to the outside and turn the corner.
Bryant may be the offensive MVP for Illinois. He’s a long outside receiver with a knack for getting behind the defense and making clutch plays. His 11 receptions of 20-plus yards ranks fourth in the Big Ten. What makes it tough for DBs is Illinois will line up another top receiver, Zakhari Franklin, on the same side as Bryant and create matchup programs for the secondary.
3. Defensively, Illinois ranks 14th in 18-team Big Ten in total yards allowed per game (365.4), 11th in passing yards allowed per game (211.4), 15th in rushing yards allowed per game (154) and ninth in points per game allowed (21.1). What have been the biggest issues in Illinois' defensive struggles, and who are the players on that side of the ball to watch out for?
Doug: They haven’t consistently been able to stop the run, allowing 154 yards on the ground per game and 4.53 yards per attempt. Minnesota's Darius Taylor rushed for 131 yards two weeks ago in the Gophers' win in Champaign. Purdue put two backs over 100 yards in its overtime loss to Illinois.
It could get worse. Starting middle linebacker and leading tackler Dylan Rosiek was lost for the season with a broken ankle. The Illini will rotate three different linebackers in his absence. Generally, the second-tier defenders don’t have ideal range, and that’s hurt them against the run.
Outside linebacker Gabe Jacas is an All-Conference type of player and future NFL Draft pick. He is the Illini’s best defender. Defensive coordinator Aaron Henry will move him around some, so MSU will need to be aware him. He lines up with his hand on the ground on the defensive line on occasion.
Illinois leans heavily on defensive back Xavier Scott, who lines up in the playmaking, hybrid STAR (nickel) position. Pro Football Focus ranks him as the top Illini defender (80.2). His value was apparent when he left the game with an injury against Minnesota and the Gophers exploited his replacement. Scott missed practice last week, but he should be ready to go on Saturday.
4. Obviously, opinions will differ, but what is the general consensus from the fans regarding how they feel about head coach Bret Bielema? Has he stabilized the program? Is he looked at as somebody who is expected to be at the helm in Champaign for a long time?
Doug: They seem cautiously optimistic about Bielema and the direction of the program. They’ve suffered through some tough eras over the years, and it looks like Bielema is building enough talent to compete for bowl games annually. They solid out Memorial Stadium for the Michigan game in Week Eight and crowds have been pretty good all season.
“Stabilized” is a good word to describe the Bielema era so far. His experience at running a Power Four program is apparent. They develop players and generally put them in a position to succeed. To take the next step, there will need to be an uptick in recruiting. I think many fans would also like to see a more wide-open offense.
5. Are there any other under-the-radar players who we haven't already mentioned to watch out for on offense or defense for Illinois on Saturday? Please give us one or two on each side of the ball (or special teams).
Doug: I briefly mentioned Zakhari Franklin above. On many teams he would be WR1. He’s a polished route runner with great hands. While Bryant is a deep threat, Franklin gets great separation on the intermedia routes. He has 41 catches for 515 yards.
Junior wide receiver Hank Beatty averages 14.6 yards per punt return, which would put him in the top-10 in the nation if he had enough returns to quality. He has given Illinois great field position on key drives.
Free safety Miles Scott has been an iron man, logging 559 snaps. He’s solid in the back end of the defense and has two interceptions. Nose tackle TeRah Edwards is having a good year, particularly at collapsing the pocket.
6. What is your score prediction and why?
Doug: Illinois 27 Michigan State 24
In a tossup game, I’ll go with the home team. The Illinois offensive line has bounce-back game against the Spartans and gives Altmyer the time he needs to make plays in the passing game.
One thing that is a concern is the dual-threat capability of MSU quarterback Aidan Chiles. That type of versatile playmaker at QB has given Illinois trouble in the past. If they can reasonably contain him, Illinois gets back on track with a closely-contested home win over the Spartans.
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