It’s not too often that a team loses six of its last seven games and still has the opportunity to play for a bowl game appearance. Yet Michigan State has that chance going into its final two games of the season, needing wins in both to clinch bowl eligibility.
“I think (the team is) aware,” said MSU head coach Jonathan Smith on Monday. “We definitely want — I say in terms of we want to win more than we lose — we understand the opportunity we have currently of getting to that number (of six wins), but we’ve got to get to five before we get to six.”
If the Spartans want their first bowl game since 2021, win five of six needs to be against Purdue this Friday. Going off of how the Boilermakers haven’t beaten an FBS team all season, this game not only serves as a must-win implicating the outcome of the Rutgers game in that regard, but also for MSU’s program outlook in the coming years as Smith rebuilds Spartan football.
In fairness to Purdue, it has gotten close a few times this year against FBS opponents. The Boilermakers forced overtime at Illinois, a team that just beat MSU by 22 points, and against Northwestern at home before eventually losing to both teams.
“Looking at Purdue, you watch this tape, they’ve been able to move the ball," Smith said. "They’ve had some lighter scoring just because of some of the red zone (struggles), similar to us. You look at their schedule and the opponents they’ve played, a bunch of top-five teams and that’s what this league is.”
On the year, Purdue has losses to current College Football Playoff No. 1 team Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 4 Penn State and No. 8 Notre Dame, along with current Associated Press No. 24 Illinois. The Boilermakers lost their games to AP top-10 teams by an average of 44.5 points per game — helping explain why they’ll be the first power conference squad this year to be an underdog against the Spartans.
For Michigan State, one of the critical points will be in the back end. It’s an already thinned-out group that has been getting asked to do more and more as MSU stretched its sackless streak to six games against the Illini in Week 12. It does not look like reinforcements will arrive on Friday.
“I do not anticipate Chuck (Brantley) or any of those guys (Malik Spencer, Armorion Smith, Chance Rucker, Dillon Tatum) back in the secondary,” Smith said.
Smith mentioned several of those injuries were expected to result in players such as Malik Spencer and Charles Brantley missing the final two games of the regular season on Saturday following the loss at Illinois as well. Regardless, MSU should still hold up OK. Purdue’s passing attack ranks 119th in the FBS at 181.1 yards per game. The Boilermakers' offense is bottom-feeding in general, as its 17.2 points per game is the third-worst in the Power Four, just managing to sit atop fellow 1-9 squad Florida State and 4-6 Houston.
In fairness to Purdue, Michigan State’s offense has also been disappointing as well. The Spartans rank 103rd in yardage and 120th in scoring. Across MSU's seven-game stretch that includes six losses, the offense has been held to less than 20 points six times, the exception being the 32-20 win over Iowa. Even the season-opening win against Florida Atlantic only boasted a 16 point performance.
Only reaching the 20-point plateau twice in nine games against FBS competition makes it difficult to find success in a league like the Big Ten. Most recently, the 16-point performance against Illinois saw one of the big issues being protection from the offensive line.
“It started with just getting beat one-on-one and then we didn’t do a good job passing off a few line games,” Smith said. “Give Illinois some credit, there’s some detail to those games and they executed it really well on two-man games, things of that nature."
The issues with protection and how to address it was one Smith noted at length following the loss Saturday, as well. It remained a topic in his Monday remarks after watching the game film.
“We talked a little bit, like maybe wanting to look at change at the launch point (where Aidan Chiles throws the ball), change in the timing of when the ball’s coming out," Smith explained. "So you throw it a little quicker to set it up (and) not be always taking deep sets at quarterback, which we’ve been doing. It was just a game where it was more leakage than we’re accustomed to.”
Chiles took five sacks against the Illini, losing 31 yards in the process. Despite that, he ended up running for 40 yards (leading the team) and throwing for 257. It was also Chiles’ first turnover-free game since Week Three against Prairie View A&M.
“I think he’s played better,” Smith said of Chiles. “I think the way he’s carrying the ball and he’s decisive in the run game (has been good). He’s competitive. Did a good job taking care of the ball, didn’t turn it over last week. I think there’s a lot that he’s continued to progress in because again, some of this was hectic in the pocket on him and he kept standing in there."
Smith also singled out an example in his mind of his young quarterback's growth in crucial moments as it relates to making plays in key moments without turnovers.
“I think about that fourth-down play; first drive, second half," Smith explained. "It’s about midfield, we’re going for it, it’s because Aidan’s ability to get some depth where the protection was and allow the crosser to get there — it was a really good rep that shows I think some of his poise, confidence has come along.”
The Spartans ended that drive with a touchdown to bring the game to within a one score margin coming out of the locker room. The difference between Chiles against FAU and him against Illinois is stark in examples such as that.
As for Smith, some fan irritation seems to be building with the best-case scenario of 6-6 being off the mark for them, even in year one of a rebuild.
MSU’s 2025 recruiting class is ranked 61st nationally and 17th in the Big Ten, according to Rivals. Two Group of Five teams sitting at 2-8, FAU (56th) and Georgia State (60th), are currently above MSU in that regard. Obviously, it only matters so much in the transfer portal era, but it is still a concerning fact that should be pointed out.
“I’m not going to be up here (in press conferences) asking for patience,” Smith said. “We’re not patient people. We do have perspective of we want to get some things established. Immediate results haven’t come, but I’m confident in the process we’re taking and we’re going to continue to develop the current roster and then just every year you’re going to have new guys on the roster, and I’m confident that the results will come.”
Smith and his Spartans will have a chance to get some results over these next two weeks, as MSU will look to avoid its first three-year bowl drought since the John L. Smith era between 2004-06. Should that be unsuccessful, this three-year streak would coincidentally occur under three different coaches it should be added.
Purdue represents the first of those two steps and both will take place at home. The game against the Boilermakers kicks off on Friday, Nov. 22 at 8 p.m. Eastern Time on FOX.
