Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith’s vision for his program requires patience in an era of instant gratification and fast rebuilds. His 2024 Spartans will not be the culmination of his work in East Lansing, but that team has the opportunity to make the outlook for 2025 and beyond much better by becoming bowl eligible with a win against Rutgers.
“I think it (would show) the progress for us individually in year one,” Smith said Monday. “It would be able to show some progress and momentum moving forward. You get more time with the current roster and I do think the current roster helps a ton in recruiting. It (would mean) a lot to continue this group working together that helps build for the foundation of the next groups to come.”
Like all good things, it won’t come easy for Michigan State. Sportsbooks currently have MSU as just a one or two-point favorite against the Scarlet Knights, who were a non-timeout or fourth-and-13 stop away from three straight wins and taking down No. 25 Illinois last Saturday.
“I think Rutgers is good,” Smith said. “You look on this tape — physical, well-coached, disciplined team, experienced quarterback (Athan Kaliakmanis), one of the best running backs we will play all season (Kyle Monangai), this guy is good and that starts with a good offensive line in front of him.”
This Saturday’s game means much more to MSU than it does to Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights became bowl-eligible two games ago and have done so in back-to-back seasons for the first time as a Big Ten institution. RU’s job is to play spoiler and force Michigan State to be the lone team in the conference to have fallen short of the six-win mark in each of the last three seasons.
To avoid having its longest bowl drought since the John L. Smith years (2004-06), the Spartans will need to do what the name of the season has been — show improvement. MSU doesn’t need to play like No. 1 Oregon all game. All anyone is asking for is just enough.
“There's going to be some punch back (and) momentum changes in games and we need to be able to answer that,” Smith said. “We want to play effective, consistent, complete for 60 minutes and if we can put that together it gives us our best chance to win.”
One major component to improvement will be solving the third quarter. In quarters one, two and four, the Spartans have a combined plus-3 point differential. Not exactly great, but it looks a lot better next to MSU’s minus-57 in the third quarter alone.
MSU has only ‘won’ the third quarter twice — against FCS Prairie View A&M (3-0) and in the eventual 22-point loss to Illinois (7-3). Every other game, the opponent out-scored the Spartans in that 15-minute frame.
Expanded over the entire second half, PVAMU is the only team MSU beat. There have been three ties (Maryland, Oregon, Iowa), but not performing better than a single FBS team in the half where games get decided is obviously a major concern.
“We took a look at (the third quarter) actually a couple weeks ago…” Smith said. “We’ve looked at even adjusting a couple things at halftime, whether from the communication side or getting them ready. (I) pointed it out to the group, I think we’ve had only a couple of games where we’ve played better than the opponent in the third quarter.
“I’ve given our coaches a hard time, like ‘what kind of halftime adjustments are we making here?’ So we’ve looked at it. Obviously, did not have it solved last week either.”
In the biggest non-Michigan game in a while, with bowl eligibility on the line, MSU coming out of the intermission and elevating its play in the second half for the first time this year would be massive.
Part of that has to fall on the offense. Michigan State still ranks 15th in the conference in scoring and 121st nationally. Even with that, getting blanked in the second half last week can’t happen against a defense that entered allowing over 40 points per game against FBS teams. Allowing 14 second half points against an even worse offense isn’t thrilling, either.
“Obviously, we got into the third quarter and it was not (good), and in really all three phases,” Smith said. “Defensively, gave up a couple long scoring drives. Could have had chances to get off the field in the third quarter, didn’t get that done. Offensively, didn’t move it to be able to counteract and separate more on the scoreboard.”
Smith and MSU will have to hope that quarterback Aidan Chiles’ improvements might spread a bit to his teammates. The sophomore now has back-to-back games with two touchdown passes and zero turnovers. Prior to that, Chiles’ only multi-passing TD game was against Maryland and his only turnover-free game was Prairie View A&M.
“(I feel) pretty solid (about his decision-making),” Smith said. “Inaccurate early on a couple easier throws that he’s capable of making. He’s done (a good job) taking care of the ball, you talk about decision-making the last couple of weeks, that’s been great.
“You throw in the added offense he gives us with the pull game and the run game and extended scrambling a couple of times.
“Overall on his decisions, I thought he showed a couple maturity reps too of getting through his progressions — starting on the left, work one, two, three all the way to four, which was great to see when he was getting some protection. So there’s progress there and I do think he’s improved throughout this year.”
Chiles and the offense will especially need to step up given how hampered the defensive secondary is. The Spartans will be without at least Charles Brantley, Malik Spencer, Chance Rucker and Dillon Tatum this week. MSU also didn’t have defensive backs Jeremiah Hughes or Armorion Smith last week.
“It’s not easy, but I do think these coaches — (secondary coach) Blue Adams and (cornerbacks coach) Demetrice Martin, (defensive coordinator) Joe Rossi overseeing the thing — they’ve done a nice job because we’ve had them go down within games and the next guy needs to be able to get out there and be ready to play and they’ve been ready.
“I go back to just the flat-out assignments — they’re in the right spots, they know the calls, motion goes across and the adjustments get made. We haven’t had a lot of blatant busts out there and sometimes that shows up when you’ve got newcomers in the game.
“They’ve managed it, the guys are still playing hard, they’re still practicing, staying locked in the meetings and that probably adds to some of that motivation that guys have actually gotten in the games and been able to perform.”
The status of starting tight end Jack Velling is also up in the air. That’s actually a really good sign, given that Velling was put on a stretcher and carted off after getting injured last Friday. Smith said that he was in a team meeting Sunday and that it will be decided if he’s available to play later in the week.
“You wouldn’t notice anything watching him move around,” Smith added. “He’s going to continue to get a couple more evaluations, but currently all the thorough evaluation he has gotten, he’s cleared that.”
Given all the injuries Smith’s team has suffered and how difficult the schedule has been at times, it’s already a bit of an accomplishment that MSU has surpassed last season’s win total already. But, going from four to five wins doesn’t really inspire much. Overcoming it all with a win Saturday would be a monumental step for Smith in helping lay his foundation within the program and getting everyone around it to buy in.
“This is an important game for multiple reasons — our last home game, last home game for some of our seniors, the opportunity to keep this group together for, call it, another month if you can have some success this Saturday,” Smith said. “All of that should add to their motivation.”
Michigan State’s game and final push for a bowl against Rutgers is set for Saturday, Nov. 30 with a start time of 3:30 p.m. on FS1.
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