WE ARE SO BACK IT ALMOST HURTS.

FOLKS, (turns caps lock off) welcome to the first 3-2-1 Preview of the 2024 season. Michigan State hosts Florida Atlantic on Friday to kick off the new campaign (7 p.m. Eastern Time on Big Ten Network).

For those new here, it’s simple. We’ve got three things we want to see, two key stats to know and one best bet to sprinkle a few shekels on before kickoff.

For those returning to these previews, thanks a ton for your time and welcome back!

Now let’s get this party started.

Move the ball on the ground painlessly

To start the year against a Group of Five team, this one is nearly cemented as a “must do” every single year. Right off the bat, you can walk away from a game knowing if you have to be concerned about the run game – such was the case last season.

Sure, MSU ran for a solid 4.1 yards per carry on paper against Central Michigan in the 2023 season opener…but that didn’t tell the whole story. The Spartans had just seven runs that went for at least five yards. They were stuffed on fourth-down-and-1 to start the game, and that turned out to foreshadow a season-long issue. Point blank, the run game was underwhelming against what would eventually be the MAC’s third-worst run defense.

If MSU can run the ball well against Florida Atlantic, good. Not worth popping Champagne over, but it passes a test. Kind of like getting an “A” grade in gym – it’s just what’s expected. But if the Spartans struggle to find rhythm and they are bottled up in short-yardage situations again? Ruh-roh.

Stop the Owls from moving the ball

Constant theme here already, I know. This is another one where it won’t just (obviously) help Michigan State win the game, but it gives us a good pulse check of what’s to come the rest of the season.

For this game specifically, MSU should be able to stop the run as FAU is breaking in four new starting offensive linemen and replacing its top two running backs from last year.

For this season’s outlook – similar to what we discussed about running the ball – if you can’t stop the run against the Owls then what will happen against your Big Ten opponents? And it’s not even limited to running backs – if you let dual-threat quarterback Cam Fancher run like a gazelle, what will happen against Boston College and their dual-threat guy, Thomas Castellanos?

The feelings are positive about MSU’s linebacker room, but the the defensive line is one of the bigger question marks to start the season. Depending on the unit's performance, we can start getting answers for better or worse this Friday night.

A settled Aidan Chiles

Doesn’t get more basic than just saying “me want quarterback to play good,” but sometimes you just have to see what’s most important. I will say, unlike the last two points, I don’t think a poor performance will foreshadow Chiles' entire season. We’ve seen newly minted sophomore quarterbacks start seasons slow and build over time (Connor Cook in 2013, for example).

The new chemistry with receivers, the unknown quality of the offensive line, the sheer pressure, etc. – those are all legitimate reasons if Chiles looks shaky in his first career start.

Now if he looks good, doesn’t bail out of pockets too early, trusts his offensive line, jells well with receivers instantly, doesn’t make any reckless decisions, etc…that’s something you can get excited about. While it won’t mean he’s a Heisman lock, it at least lets fan know the floor to start his season is pretty high for a sophomore. Not to say he won’t get rattled throughout the season, but a good outing can show himself and rest of Spartan Nation there is a high baseline level of quarterback play ahead.

800

That’s yards after contact last season by UMass running back transfer Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams, good for 16th-most in the country.

One of the roughly 4,000 question marks going into the 2024 season for Michigan State is “How will the running back carries be split up?” Just shooting from the hip, I’m assuming it will be a 50 percent Nathan Carter, 40 percent Lynch-Adams and 10 percent elsewhere split.

Regardless, it will be a steady dose of physical running as both Carter and Lynch-Adams are more bruisers than they are shakers. That was seen over the last few years when the staff was at Oregon State as well, so when head coach Jonathan Smith says they’ll look to be physical running the ball, he’s not just saying that for fun.

39

That’s how many catches FAU receiver Caleb Coombs snagged at Marshall last year – good to lead the Thundering Herd. After losing 2023 leading wide receiver LaJohntay Wester to Colorado, FAU brought in no shortage of wide receiver transfers, plucking from Appalachian State, West Virginia and Buffalo too. However, with the built-in chemistry Coombs has with Fancher, that is worth pointing out.

Now Owls head coach Tom Herman did say they will rotate through upward of seven receivers routinely on Friday, but if there is one guy that might be starting with a leg up, it’s Coombs.

MSU -13.5, o/u 45.5

Aidan Chiles recently said “take the over” and, folks, I regret to inform you we are cutting against the grain of our quarterback (granted, he may have been talking about season win total)

The spread and point total is projecting somewhere around a 30-16 MSU victory, and those are two numbers that I’m not confident get passed. Eclipsing 30 points could be asking a lot from a newly minted starting quarterback trying to jell with a new crop of receivers, especially against a FAU front that returns six guys from last year. And the Owls going over 16 points is not guaranteed either, both with how established MSU’s defense is and the fact FAU is replacing nine starters. It could very well be a slow start to the season for the Owls, too.

Pick: Under 45.5

Record: 0-0

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